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The Oaks 2015

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Viewing 17 posts - 35 through 51 (of 132 total)
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  • #998240
    Balthazar
    Participant
    • Total Posts 6

    What about Goodyearforroses her dam also trained by Rae Guest finished 5th in the Oaks and she beat Star of Seville nicely in her maiden.

    #999712
    Avatar photostevecaution
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 8241

    Steve going through the big prices any thoughts on PAMONA at 40/1 could run at weekend but a lightly raced filly with decent 2yo form

    Pamona runs in the 4.20 at Newbury tomorrow and is in a field of 13.

    She’s a narrow favourite from Crystal Zvezda, with Martlet and Entertainment the next two in the betting.

    I don’t think much of the form of Martlet, who has the fitness advantage and the Lingfield maiden won by Crystal Zvezda looks awful to be honest with you, for all that she is open to improvement. I like the look of Pamona here and I reckon the presence of a Stoute runner and two Gosden runners is propping up the price on Pamona, who makes most appeal to me on what she has done thus far and being as open to improvement as any of them. 7/2 looks worth a bet to me but I’m not a gambling man these days. If there is one who could go off shorter I think it’s Cumani’s filly and I’ll be a bit disappointed of she can’t win this.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #1003568
    Avatar photostevecaution
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 8241

    The Oaks dream died for Pamona there today, well beaten by Michael Stoute’s Crystal Zvedza who stayed on well today to perhaps put herself into the picture for Epsom. She has clearly come a long way from her maiden win in a awful looking Lingfield race and her rating will rocket up after this performance.

    Absolutely no encouragement for Diamondsandrubies fans and her prospect for the Oaks as Entertainment, who was six lengths behind her in the Cheshire Oaks, trailed in stone last today, looking like a very slow horse in the process. It didn’t look a strong race at Chester at the time, with Entertainment a 20/1 shot that day and Gosden’s handicap winner Zamoura filling third spot.

    I think Diamonsandrubies is poor value for the Oaks at the prices and Crystal Zvezda in to 8/1 from 33/1 for winning today is a serious overreaction in my opinion. The race looks as bad as the Derby in terms of having a favourite who might not run and a series of ordinary enough looking horses making up the next few in the betting. One time perceived shoo-in Found is very weak in the betting and the quality is sorely lacking.

    The 20/1 on Boca Baciata is gone and 14/1 is the best available now but she heads to the Irish 1000 and I just wonder how she will perform there and whether she will even go to the Oaks. These Epsom Classics just don’t seem to be a big priority these days.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #1003571
    Jonibake
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4457

    Stevie – sorry mate but Entertainment actually ran ok – finished 4th after being short of room and disqualified and placed last as jockey didn’t weigh in or something. Can’t see beyond the fav for the Oaks though. She looks rock solid to me.

    "this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"

    #1003591
    Avatar photoThe Ante-Post King
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    • Total Posts 8695

    The Oaks dream died for Pamona there today.

    The Oaks dream came alive for Pamona more like Steve,she was stood still when the very nice winner stormed past her,when she did get a run she flew faster than Stoutes winner and over a 11/2m she will beat her victor today.I am on Pandora at 80’s down and am now on Pamona at 30’s down,that will do for me in a wide open Oaks field.

    #1003695
    thirdtimelucky
    Participant
    • Total Posts 23

    I am in the Coolmore camp for both the derby and the Oaks….Unfortunately Fluff is a deff non runner.
    For me Kissed by Angels will have the class to win at a great price…Im not a huge fan of diamonds but I understand she also going to Epsom
    Id like to know if Wedding Vow is destined for the Oaks ..she has a huge race in her still as her last run at Lingfield was to unreal to be true @ 50-1

    #1003699
    Avatar photostevecaution
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 8241

    Stevie – sorry mate but Entertainment actually ran ok – finished 4th after being short of room and disqualified and placed last as jockey didn’t weigh in or something. Can’t see beyond the fav for the Oaks though. She looks rock solid to me.

    The ATR website just said she was last and once paced. Obviously I didn’t watch the race.

    The jockey needs a boot in the bollocks if he didn’t weigh in.

    I didn’t think that was a strong looking contest today and regardless of who won I was doubtful it would throw up an Oaks winner.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #1003701
    Avatar photostevecaution
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 8241

    <div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>stevecaution wrote:</div>
    The Oaks dream died for Pamona there today.

    The Oaks dream came alive for Pamona more like Steve,she was stood still when the very nice winner stormed past her,when she did get a run she flew faster than Stoutes winner and over a 11/2m she will beat her victor today.I am on Pandora at 80’s down and am now on Pamona at 30’s down,that will do for me in a wide open Oaks field.

    I wouldn’t be at all confident that Pamona would turn that around Gord. The winner will progress quite a bit as well I think. Bookies have Crystal Zvezda at 8/1 and Pamona is still available at 40/1 in a few places, so it seems that they expect Stoute’s Dubawi filly to confirm the form.

    It is a wide open race but I wouldn’t expect Pamona to turn the form around and getting the big odds is the easier part of the equation, as I saw today with Integral at 12/1, going off 11/4 and being just about the only horse this century, it seems, that didn’t win with Ryan Moore on board :-(

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #1004842
    Avatar photoNathan Hughes
    Participant
    • Total Posts 32177

    I went around father’s this morning before catching the train and I’m sure someone said on the morning line that Al Naamah was still an intended runner for the Oaks?

    Blackbeard to conquer the World

    #1007694
    Avatar photoZarkava
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    • Total Posts 4691

    <div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>stevecaution wrote:</div>
    The Oaks dream died for Pamona there today.

    The Oaks dream came alive for Pamona more like Steve,she was stood still when the very nice winner stormed past her,when she did get a run she flew faster than Stoutes winner and over a 11/2m she will beat her victor today.I am on Pandora at 80’s down and am now on Pamona at 30’s down,that will do for me in a wide open Oaks field.

    Hmmm I’m a bit jealous. Think you *might* have the winner, but there are a couple of others I like. Was on Crystal Zvezda at 42 but laid most of it off for a profit. Still got a bit of green on her but I don’t think she’ll stay. Her pedigree is stuffed full of milers. Over 10f she could be unbeatable. Amazing performance today.

    #1008771
    Avatar photostevecaution
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 8241

    I went around father’s this morning before catching the train and I’m sure someone said on the morning line that Al Naamah was still an intended runner for the Oaks?

    Al Naamah was tipped by Liz Price in her five French horses to follow. Not long after that she ran in the Cleopatre and went off 11/8 f before promptly getting beaten. This time she was said to have needed the run badly and was also in season.

    If Liz isn’t the kiss of death, then I surely am, taking her at 33/1 for the Oaks after her first run. Those tickets were in the fire long ago.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #1014891
    Avatar photoZarkava
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4691

    Boca Baciata 20/1

    Obviously her form is amazing but she won’t get anywhere near Found in the Irish 1000. Then her price will get bigger or might not even run. I had a couple of quid on Pamona at 40/1, so got green on her, most green is on Agnes Stewart, still got a bit of green on Crystal Zvezda but I don’t think she’ll stay and I’ve started greening up Found at 15. I’d be surprised if the winner isn’t one of those 4. The rest don’t look great to me (bar Legatissimo). I’ve also got green on Bellajeu but trying to get rid of that.

    #1016174
    stilvi
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5228

    On a weekend packed with classic trials nothing impressed me more than Kissed by Angels.
    She travelled beautifully at Leopardstown and Heffernan held on as long as he could against inferior rivals.
    She looks exactly the type of filly to step up on form and do the Irish 1,000 Guineas/ Oaks double in the mould of Imagine.

    She is by Galileo as a stamina influence and although her dam was Lillie Langtry, that filly has Darshaan close up in the pedigree and arguably her stamina was never tested as she should have been a 10f horse without any bother.
    In any case, Kissed by Angels just oozes class and I will be following her wherever she runs next…hopefully she takes in the Epsom Oaks.

    She was very impressive but given her change of pace it must be pretty doubtful that she will be as effective over a mile and a half. I would have thought Irish 1000 and French Oaks would be more realistic targets.

    #1017416
    Avatar photoThe Ante-Post King
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    • Total Posts 8695

    <div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>The Ante-Post King wrote:</div>

    <div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>stevecaution wrote:</div>
    The Oaks dream died for Pamona there today.

    The Oaks dream came alive for Pamona more like Steve,she was stood still when the very nice winner stormed past her,when she did get a run she flew faster than Stoutes winner and over a 11/2m she will beat her victor today.I am on Pandora at 80’s down and am now on Pamona at 30’s down,that will do for me in a wide open Oaks field.

    Hmmm I’m a bit jealous. Think you *might* have the winner, but there are a couple of others I like. Was on Crystal Zvezda at 42 but laid most of it off for a profit. Still got a bit of green on her but I don’t think she’ll stay. Her pedigree is stuffed full of milers. Over 10f she could be unbeatable. Amazing performance today.

    Stan James are still offering 40/1 about Pamona Zark and I have taken it,the more I watch her run yesterday the more I blame her Jockey,the Winner looks like a very high class filly but 8/1 her against 40/1 the unlucky horse tells me Cumani’s filly is the value in the race..Ladbrokes incidentally only go 16/1 Pamona,that is worth noting.

    #1017444
    Avatar photoZarkava
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4691

    Backed earlier at 40s, Gord. Won’t get near Crystal Zvezda over 10f though.

    #1028341
    Avatar photostevecaution
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 8241

    Legatissimo isn’t going to run in Irish 1000 Guineas and you wonder if the plan is to leave the way clear for Found to make her name instead.

    I think Found has plenty to prove after a very disappointing effort on her re-appearance. It will be interesting to see what the betting will be for the Irish 1000 Guineas and I feel Boca Baciata may well end up being underestimated in the market.

    Found is clear best on the ratings but that was last year. Missing the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket and running the next day instead was disappointing but worse was to follow getting beating by an outsider and looking well short of form. The thinking will be that she will come on a ton but Boca Baciata has shown a useful level of form and that form has been franked nicely since.

    Crystal Zvezda continues to be supported and was very taking in the way she put her race to bed last time. I feel it’s wishful thinking that Pamona can turn that around but if Stoute’s horse was to win the Oaks you would think Cumani’s filly won’t be far away.

    1000 Guineas form always has to be respected looking towards the Oaks and with Legatissimo’s defection from the Irish version we will be looking at two Guineas winners and pondering their chances at Epsom come Monday morning. I get the feeling that, like the Derby, O’Brien’s strength is represented in numbers rather than quality for now. There is one box at Ballydoyle with Found written on it and there is one horse inside it. Over the other side of the yard there is a box with Lost written on it and they are starting to get crammed in like sardines over there!

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #1028552
    Avatar photoraymo61
    Participant
    • Total Posts 6320

    I think the Oaks is a harder race to work out than the Deby.
    One certain opinion I do have about the race is Legatissimo WILL NOT stay. I know there are plenty that think she will and will back her accordingly but the game is all about opinions and I have placed a lot of store in the fact that Ryan Moore was not at all convinced she would stay after the Guineas and I think her optimum trip will be a mile and a quarter.

    I have a small interest on Jazzi Top and Diamondsandrubies. Jazzi Top because she won the race Talent won two years ago (Pretty Polly) and Diamondsandrubies just looks like a mile and a half horse and it would be nice to see Bocca Baciata run well at the weekend.

    By the way what’s happening with Agnes Stewart ??

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