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The Oaks 2015

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  • #934984
    Avatar photoSteeplechasing
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    • Total Posts 6114

    Very odd to see something so comparatively short in the market go untipped. Didn’t read a single thing about her.

    Ride of the race for me was Hughesie who got a non-stayer placed in a Classic with sublime pace judgement and horsemanship.

    #934986
    Avatar photostevecaution
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 8241

    Very odd to see something so comparatively short in the market go untipped. Didn’t read a single thing about her.

    Ride of the race for me was Hughesie who got a non-stayer placed in a Classic with sublime pace judgement and horsemanship.

    Maybe there were some Tabor/Moore doubles running on from Gleneagles. I thought Legatissimo should have been 10/1 or even 12/1 on the back of her 9f Listed win at Gowran but maybe some people knew something.

    She was only 4th in the Guineas trial at Leopardstown but the ground was soft that day and it was only 7f, so perhaps neither of those were ideal.

    Tiggy Wiggy kept on better than I thought she would but they have said she will drop back in trip now, reckoning that it was pure class that allowed her to place today. It did no harm to her chance that both of the fillies who beat her at Newbury ran appallingly today, tailed off like two scabby mules with Clint Eastwood on one and John Wayne on the other, set against an Arizona skyline and getting caught up by a pack of marauding Apache’s, who were travelling on foot.

    ps Legatissimo was tipped by Pricewise Joe

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #935144
    Avatar photoGingertipster
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    • Total Posts 33017

    Legatissimo is cracking value for the Oaks judged purely by “form” and “breeding”. Trouble is:

    a) She’s already had three races in a short space of time, 12th & 26th April and now 3rd May.
    b) Owners have many more fillies that may have a good chance in the Oaks.
    c) Owners may not have another mile filly to replace her in Group 1 mile races.
    d) Trainer is in excellent form at the moment, may not be in quite as good form in another month’s time.

    So the price available now has more to do with “liklihood of running” rather than “chance of winning on the day”. Are any bookmakers going “with a run”?

    Value Is Everything
    #936374
    Avatar photostevecaution
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    • Total Posts 8241

    Puzzling for some followers that Found runs 24 hours after “not being ready” for the 1000 Guineas.

    The difference though, is that it is a less competitive group 3 that she runs in at the Curragh today and being ready for that, compared to the first fillies Classic of the season is another matter.

    I could see the logic in thinking Found is like finding money in the street at odds of 4/5 in today’s company. She really should win this easily on her Group 1 winning form in France. I wouldn’t oppose her for sure.

    Today’s 7f trip would be a worry for an Oaks contender but the ground is plenty soft and stamina should play a part. A win should see her back to favourite for the Oaks, a position perhaps briefly occupied by the Guineas winner Legatissimo in some places at the moment.

    Interesting fare for a Monday at the Curragh, with a lot of eyes sure to be on Endless Drama earlier, after his runner up finish behind Derby springer Zawraq on his first run this season. He’s proven on the ground and I think this drop to 7f will be ideal. He’s a good bet to my eyes at 11/8

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #936390
    Avatar photostevecaution
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    Puzzling for some followers that Found runs 24 hours after “not being ready” for the 1000 Guineas.

    The difference though, is that it is a less competitive group 3 that she runs in at the Curragh today and being ready for that, compared to the first fillies Classic of the season is another matter.

    I could see the logic in thinking Found is like finding money in the street at odds of 4/5 in today’s company. She really should win this easily on her Group 1 winning form in France. I wouldn’t oppose her for sure.

    Today’s 7f trip would be a worry for an Oaks contender but the ground is plenty soft and stamina should play a part. A win should see her back to favourite for the Oaks, a position perhaps briefly occupied by the Guineas winner Legatissimo in some places at the moment.

    Interesting fare for a Monday at the Curragh, with a lot of eyes sure to be on Endless Drama earlier, after his runner up finish behind Derby springer Zawraq on his first run this season. He’s proven on the ground and I think this drop to 7f will be ideal. He’s a good bet to my eyes at 11/8

    Tombelaine a bit to good for Endless Drama today but a decent run from the Guineas trial runner up and the winner had form with several of O’Brien’s leading lights last year.

    The Warrior was shorter in the betting than I thought his form warranted and he’s another O’Brien horse to be a bit disappointing, perhaps tempering confidence in Found in the next race.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #936826
    Avatar photostevecaution
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    • Total Posts 8241

    <div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>stevecaution wrote:</div>
    Puzzling for some followers that Found runs 24 hours after “not being ready” for the 1000 Guineas.

    The difference though, is that it is a less competitive group 3 that she runs in at the Curragh today and being ready for that, compared to the first fillies Classic of the season is another matter.

    I could see the logic in thinking Found is like finding money in the street at odds of 4/5 in today’s company. She really should win this easily on her Group 1 winning form in France. I wouldn’t oppose her for sure.

    Today’s 7f trip would be a worry for an Oaks contender but the ground is plenty soft and stamina should play a part. A win should see her back to favourite for the Oaks, a position perhaps briefly occupied by the Guineas winner Legatissimo in some places at the moment.

    Interesting fare for a Monday at the Curragh, with a lot of eyes sure to be on Endless Drama earlier, after his runner up finish behind Derby springer Zawraq on his first run this season. He’s proven on the ground and I think this drop to 7f will be ideal. He’s a good bet to my eyes at 11/8

    Tombelaine a bit to good for Endless Drama today but a decent run from the Guineas trial runner up and the winner had form with several of O’Brien’s leading lights last year.

    The Warrior was shorter in the betting than I thought his form warranted and he’s another O’Brien horse to be a bit disappointing, perhaps tempering confidence in Found in the next race.

    Just when you thought 5/4 was a gift from the Gods, whoosh comes the rank outsider, who comes through like Dancing Brave for the Boil Over. Shockerooney and Found pushed out to 6/1 for the Oaks.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #936828
    Avatar photostevecaution
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    • Total Posts 8241

    After Found’s effort it seemed good sense to take the 4/1 on Legatissimo. The form is there and I think Gosden’s Star Of Seville is the only danger.

    Of course, Legatissimo might not stay but 4/1 is worth taking that into account after Found’s run.

    Connections can argue that Found will be better for different ground, the trip and the time to the Oaks but there is no comparison between the two at the head of the market with a Guineas win in one corner and a defeat by an exposed looking 4yo in a Group 3.

    Take the 4’s it won’t last and she’ll be much shorter on the day.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #936836
    Avatar photoSeaBirdII
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    • Total Posts 229

    Found may be heading to the Irish 1000 Guineas apparently. So, it is questionable whether she’ll head to the Oaks, even though Marvellous did it last year (albeit unsuccessfully). AOB has Diamondsandrubies and Wedding Vow entered at Chester. But, I most interested in seeing where Fluff is heading (Blue Wind?). Don’t think Legatissimo is invulnerable by any means, but she does look like the strongest contender so far.

    #943400
    Avatar photostevecaution
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    Diamondsandrubies is as low as 7/1 for the Oaks after her Chester win.

    That didn’t look a good trial today, she was backed into hot favourite and probably beat trees there. I reckon 7/1 is a serious overreaction and would have a Guineas winner all day at 4/1 instead.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #973186
    Avatar photostevecaution
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    Beautiful Romance is said to be doubtful for Epsom. They are running out of time and thinking that the Irish Oaks may be a better option for her.

    Wednesday’s Musidora sees only five runners and it looks a straight match between Fillies Mile winner and late Guineas defector Together Forever and John Gosden’s Star Of Seville.

    Star Of Seville has a run advantage and gets 4 lbs from the O’Brien filly. Bookies have Star Of Seville Evens favourite and Together Forever 13/8. Pandora is 7/1 and the other two are 33/1 shots.

    Hope Pandora doesn’t get boxed in ;-)

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #977275
    darren83
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    Steve going through the big prices any thoughts on PAMONA at 40/1 could run at weekend but a lightly raced filly with decent 2yo form

    #977356
    Avatar photostevecaution
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    Steve going through the big prices any thoughts on PAMONA at 40/1 could run at weekend but a lightly raced filly with decent 2yo form

    Pamona is an interesting filly Darren. Her form isn’t at the level required yet and she is officially rated 90 but the step up in trip and time may bring improvement. What draws me to her chances is that she is following in the footsteps of Volume, who won the Newbury race for the same stable last season.

    Volume was running off 88 last year, so it is a very similar story to Pamona this year. Volume was third to Taghrooda in the Oaks before the wrong shoes carry on and the same finishing position in the Irish Oaks.

    Volume came into the Newbury trial race with the benefit of a run last year, whereas Pamona will be making her debut. Pamona is less exposed, in terms of runs, than Volume was and she could improve similarly or better than her stable companion.

    Volume went up ten pounds for her win last year and I feel Pamona will need to emerge a stone or so above her 90 mark to be a contender for the Oaks. The field for that Newbury race looks tricky at the moment with several fillies lightly raced and within a narrowish band of rating. Quite a few look like they are open to improvement at the distance.

    I would wait to see how she gets on but at 40/1 it’s not a bad play with doubts about the first few in the betting. The Musidora will tell us how Together Forever and Star Of Seville compare and whether either or both are Oaks contenders.

    All the best with Pamona Darren.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #977617
    Avatar photoRunning Rein
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    • Total Posts 187

    On a weekend packed with classic trials nothing impressed me more than Kissed by Angels.
    She travelled beautifully at Leopardstown and Heffernan held on as long as he could against inferior rivals.
    She looks exactly the type of filly to step up on form and do the Irish 1,000 Guineas/ Oaks double in the mould of Imagine.

    She is by Galileo as a stamina influence and although her dam was Lillie Langtry, that filly has Darshaan close up in the pedigree and arguably her stamina was never tested as she should have been a 10f horse without any bother.
    In any case, Kissed by Angels just oozes class and I will be following her wherever she runs next…hopefully she takes in the Epsom Oaks.

    #977834
    mickeyjp
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    • Total Posts 1757

    I too was most impressed with kissed by angels. Was a winner a long way out and afterwards seamie heffernan said he was very surprised she got beat on debut. Diamondsandrubies was equally as impressive at Chester and looks nailed on to be at least placed at Epsom. If both these horses and found turn up at the oaks ryan Moore has a tough choice. There is also together forever who runs in the musidora at york tomorrow so aob looks to have a very good bunch of fillies. I suspect two will go for the oaks and the other two will go to royal ascot for either the coronation stakes or the ribblesdale.

    #981981
    Avatar photostevecaution
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    Jazzi Top’s form goes under the microscope tonight at Naas.

    Zannda, who was second to Jazzi Top in the Pretty Polly at Newmarket, is second favourite behind Jim Bolger’s Pleascach in the Blue Wind at 7.05 this evening and it’s a Group 3 contest won by Tarfasha last season.

    The 10f contest will be run on soft ground and Zannda is arguably the value at 9/4 over Bolger’s filly who was runner up in listed company last time.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #981990
    Avatar photoraymo61
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    If Zannda wins do you think Jazzi Top will shorten folks?

    #986784
    Avatar photostevecaution
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    Not much of a compliment to Jazzi Top there, with Zannda getting an eight and a half length thrashing from Jim Bolger’s Pleascach.

    Despite winning impressively, the filly who had finished in front of Diamondandrubies when runner up last time, is said to be more likely to go for the Ribblesdale and Irish Oaks than to appear at Epsom.

    With Diamondsandrubies winning at Chester and Pleascach winning tonight, the filly who won the Salsabil Stakes, when those fillies were third and second, Boca Baciata, has had her form boosted. Jessica Harrington’s filly was 4th in the Curragh maiden won by Found before finishing third next time when favourite for a Leopardstown maiden. Interestingly, she again finished ahead of Diamondsandrubies that day.

    Boca Baciata made no mistake at the third time of asking, when winning over a mile at Navan, in a maiden where Aiden O’ Brien’s Easter was the two length runner up. It seems that the step up in trip to 10f saw her in a better light as she put up her best performance to date when beating the two fillies who have franked her form since.

    With scope for more improvement at a mile and a half, Jessica Harrington’s Big Bad Bob filly would be no forlorn hope if turning up at Epsom for the Oaks. There will be worse 20/1 value in my opinion. She may take in the Irish 1000 Guineas but I feel that will not play to her strengths and she’s far more likely to reach the top at the longer trip. Probably won’t stop them having a go though, the obsession seems to be with the shorter trip.

    Boca Baciata 20/1

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

Viewing 17 posts - 18 through 34 (of 132 total)
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