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Like many of his ilk who travel so impressively, there isn’t much there at the end of Grade 1 well run races.
That’s pretty much what speed horses do in "well run races" Joe. Especially when every time they run are too free early. MOTY barely stayed 2 miles in well run races; travelling impressively but when stamina came in to play – found little.
Some that take a tug are better in a well run race, because it enables them to settle better. But with MOTY it didn’t matter whether the pace was fast or slow, he’d always want to take a hold. So if slowly run still had plenty left for his trademark kick; but in well run races (imo) stamina gave way…
…And/or (as already said) at the Cheltenham Festival "ability rather than speed is key". ie Having speed/turn of foot is more of an asset at other meetings (for MOTY) than it is at the Festival. Partly due to horses like Jezki and Champagne Fever being able to show better form at the Cheltenham Festival than they can elsewhere at the trip (because speed is not such a big factor).
"Speed" is nowhere near so important at the Cheltenham Festival as most punters think (imo).
Value Is EverythingI think after looking at the video again of last year’s race, Jezki is being massively overlooked again for this year’s race.
I agree the fall of Our Conor hindered The New One, but he cruised back into contention and then got outpaced when they kicked for home. He stayed on through beaten horses, but the front two had already flown. Maybe if he has a clear round he will get a bit closer, but when they kick can he go with them? He couldn’t beat the hard pulling My Tent Or Yours at Kempton for whatever reason, and MTOY failed to reel in Jezki in the big race. Yes he pulled too hard and that probably cost him the race, but has anyone noticed how hard Jezki was pulling for a fair way and still won? I’m not going to crab AP, but if they let Geraghty keep the ride I think he will give Faugheen plenty to think about and confirm the form with the New One.
Cannot see him out of the first two on evidence so far.What surprises me is that we have TNO had a short price while Rock on Ruby, whos recent form looks pretty similar is not even entered. He would have had a live outside chance.
SHL
I think after looking at the video again of last year’s race, Jezki is being massively overlooked again for this year’s race.
I agree the fall of Our Conor hindered The New One, but he cruised back into contention and then got outpaced when they kicked for home. He stayed on through beaten horses, but the front two had already flown. Maybe if he has a clear round he will get a bit closer, but when they kick can he go with them? He couldn’t beat the hard pulling My Tent Or Yours at Kempton for whatever reason, and MTOY failed to reel in Jezki in the big race. Yes he pulled too hard and that probably cost him the race, but has anyone noticed how hard Jezki was pulling for a fair way and still won? I’m not going to crab AP, but if they let Geraghty keep the ride I think he will give Faugheen plenty to think about and confirm the form with the New One.
Cannot see him out of the first two on evidence so far.Faugheen will be very difficult to beat, but you can keep 5/4 at this early stage. I agree Harvey, 6/1 with Ladbrokes (or 5/1 BOG and NRNB Bet365) Jezki looks good each way value to me. I backed TNO last year (and MTOY and the unfortunate OC) it would’ve been close had he not been hampered. But when they are similar horses at their best, the Brit ran disappointingly at Haydock (despite winning) and the Irish terrier ran well in a race not suited to his style last time – so why is the latter available at twice the price of the former?
Hurricane Fly is (even now that he’s not quite the outstanding hurdler he was) better than Jezki away from Cheltenham. But Jezki is (imo) better at Cheltenham.
Haven’t given up on A Sign Of Victory, hoping for better. But can’t see anything else troubling Jezki for a place.
Value Is EverythingWhat surprises me is that we have TNO had a short price while Rock on Ruby, whos recent form looks pretty similar is not even entered. He would have had a live outside chance.
ROR has a much better chance in the World Hurdle SHL, lost some of the pace he once had.
Value Is EverythingI’ve had a bit on Jezki at 6s, and I backed him last year purely because there was a collective rush of the blood to bookies’ heads after his irish Champion Hurdle 4th of 4 (beaten 3 lengths). He wasted most of his energy pulling and was done with when the tap was turned on.
In his previous 2nd to HF, AP was outridden by both Walsh and Danny Mullins. He should have won that day, and arguably would have won next time too under a much more aggressive ride than he got. There was a very strong argument that he was the best hurdler in Ireland, yet they pushed him out 14s for the CH.
My concern this season is that he’s had no excuse whatever for his 2 defeats by the Fly, and, in fact, looked poised to win both. The benefit of the doubt says fitness was to blame, but he really should have won at least one of those. He’ll be better in March with a track and ground he loves, but he’s less than half the price that was available around this time last year, and arguably, has shown worse form.
The only weakness in Faugheen seems to be his jumping and it’s very hard to see him lose this. But TNO is not a danger, imo, and Jezki might not have progressed as expected. The Fly surely cannot do any better than last year, and that leaves you with the Purple Bays and Arctic Fires, and both of those (especially the former) hold much more EW value than Jezki, imo.
but he’s less than half the price that was available around this time last year, and arguably, has shown worse form.
We agree Jezki is a good bet at 6/1 Joe. But why would he be anywhere near the price he was "around this time last year"? When around this time last year he hadn’t proven himself by winning a Champion Hurdle. You can not take that fact out of any price expected.
Value Is EverythingJust getting back to The New One’s turn of foot, and I have seen it described as a "sharp turn of foot" elsewhere.
I asked earlier where the turn of foot was when The New One lost out to Zarkandar at Aintree but go no explanation.
I had backed The New One that day, to what was, for me, a big bet and I was about 95% sure watching the closing stages that I was on a winner. I have watched the race numerous times and can’t get away from the fact that The New One was travelling a good bit better than Zarkandar and everything that could possibly be in place for a turn of foot horse to quicken up and take command of the race,
was
in place.
The race was there for the taking and The New One must have been trading well odds-on in the "in-running betting", it wasn’t the fastest horse in the world he was chasing, he was travelling well, he was close enough to strike
but
it just didn’t happen.
The New One and Zarkandar rise pretty much as one at the last flight but when the jockey asks The New One to go win the race he just doesn’t quicken past Zarkandar. Even if we were to stretch the imagination and argue that Zarkandar suddenly quickened slightly better than The New One at that unlikely late stage of a finish, it isn’t a feasible argument, as the two of them don’t come away from the grey horse in third. Unless of course the third horse also found a turn of foot as well
You can see it here for yourselves, I just don’t see this "sharp turn of foot" at all.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ExGnO4Qrtys
Great horses can quicken past good horses and good horses can quicken past moderate horses. It’s a different game asking a good horse to quicken past another good horse.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
but he’s less than half the price that was available around this time last year, and arguably, has shown worse form.
We agree Jezki is a good bet at 6/1 Joe. But why would he be anywhere near the price he was "around this time last year"? When around this time last year he hadn’t proven himself by winning a Champion Hurdle. You can not take that fact out of any price expected.
Dead right, Ginger. I was just making an observation rather than a complaint. After the Irish CH last year, I thought he should have been closer to 4s than 14s for the big one, so he represented massive value and I backed accordingly.
When I bet him at 6/1, for this year’s race it was prior to him running this season. I no longer consider him the best value in the race, although I believe TNO is worst value.
Dead right, Ginger. I was just making an observation rather than a complaint. After the Irish CH last year, I thought he should have been closer to 4s than 14s for the big one, so he represented massive value and I backed accordingly.
When I bet him at 6/1, for this year’s race it was prior to him running this season. I no longer consider him the best value in the race, although I believe TNO is worst value.
I see whatyou mean now Joe, cheers.
Value Is EverythingSad as it sounds, I’ve just spent the last hour or so going back through the videos of all TNO’s hurdle races:
He’s always had a tendency to jump right, and it’s at its most pronounced and ‘consistent’ at Kempton.
The ground does not seem to make much difference to that tendency.
In his most recent races, when jumping right, he’s tended to land on all fours 80% of the time – again, perhaps a sign that he’s trying to get pressure of his forelegs.
Along with the jumping right, he’s shown an increasing tendency to idle.
He is definitely not a battler, unable or unwilling to put his head down and stretch in a tight finish.
His Neptune win saw him jumping at his straightest though there were still errors. Despite the slow pace there, he was quite easily outpaced after the 2nd last for about a furlong, though when he picked them up it was soon all over. It was at the same flight he was again caught out in the CH, though it took him an awful lot longer to get back into the race.
One thing I noticed for the first time, Sam tends to ride him ‘in snatches’. Despite being a good traveller, he’s extremely tractable and he reacts quickly to being switched on and off until he comes under pressure. I wonder if these tactics have been holding him back? The two races in which he’s looked most comfortable were his novice Warwick win where he led for most of the final circuit at a good, steady consistent pace without being switched on and off, and his win over Rock on Ruby at Kempton where he took it up some way out. He also looked impressive when setting sail for home much earlier than usual in the Christmas Hurdle.
It would be an interesting experiment to see him try to make all.
Just getting back to The New One’s turn of foot, and I have seen it described as a "sharp turn of foot" elsewhere.
I asked earlier where the turn of foot was when The New One lost out to Zarkandar at Aintree but go no explanation.
I had backed The New One that day, to what was, for me, a big bet and I was about 95% sure watching the closing stages that I was on a winner. I have watched the race numerous times and can’t get away from the fact that The New One was travelling a good bit better than Zarkandar and everything that could possibly be in place for a turn of foot horse to quicken up and take command of the race,
was
in place.
The race was there for the taking and The New One must have been trading well odds-on in the "in-running betting", it wasn’t the fastest horse in the world he was chasing, he was travelling well, he was close enough to strike
but
it just didn’t happen.
The New One and Zarkandar rise pretty much as one at the last flight but when the jockey asks The New One to go win the race he just doesn’t quicken past Zarkandar. Even if we were to stretch the imagination and argue that Zarkandar suddenly quickened slightly better than The New One at that unlikely late stage of a finish, it isn’t a feasible argument, as the two of them don’t come away from the grey horse in third. Unless of course the third horse also found a turn of foot as well
You can see it here for yourselves, I just don’t see this "sharp turn of foot" at all.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ExGnO4Qrtys
Great horses can quicken past good horses and good horses can quicken past moderate horses. It’s a different game asking a good horse to quicken past another good horse.
Zarcandar often travels on and off the bridle David, so although visually The New One was "travelling a good bit better", you never quite can tell how much more Zarc has up his forelegs. He was also blinkered for the first time over hurdles that day; getting a bit more out of the horse. This was 21 months ago, a very young Sam against the Master, Ruby. It was a slowly run affair where Walsh was given a very easy lead of a couple of lengths. If looking at where the principles came from, TNO did by far the best of the hold up horses. Using his turn of foot to get upsides. Zarcandar and the third Thousand Stars were first two practically throughout.
More’s to the point, it should be remembered this was cracking form put up by a novice taking on established grade 1 performers. Very few do that and it requires more ability. Second at Aintree achieving his best rating up to that point. I’d already backed TNO for the Champion by the time he lined up in this and was delighted with the run and bookies were impressed to, shortening him up quite a lot if I remember rightly.
Value Is EverythingHe is definitely not a battler, unable or unwilling to put his head down and stretch in a tight finish.
Good write up on the whole Joe, but where is the evidence for this?
Value Is EverythingHe is definitely not a battler, unable or unwilling to put his head down and stretch in a tight finish.
Good write up on the whole Joe, but where is the evidence for this?
He’s lost all 3 head-to-heads he’s been in, by which I mean in close physical proximity to the winners – At Fisher’s Cross, Zarkandar, & MTOY. I accept that in the last one, his final flight blunder arguably cost him the race, but that does not change the fact that he didn’t put his head down (and that was against another dubious battler).
In the close finish he did win at Aintree, he was miles wide of RoR, though he almost idled his way to defeat imo.
Have a look at them, and see what you think.
Zarcandar often travels on and off the bridle David, so although visually The New One was "travelling a good bit better", you never quite can tell how much more Zarc has up his forelegs. He was also blinkered for the first time over hurdles that day; getting a bit more out of the horse. This was 21 months ago, a very young Sam against the Master, Ruby. It was a slowly run affair where Walsh was given a very easy lead of a couple of lengths. If looking at where the principles came from, TNO did by far the best of the hold up horses. Using his turn of foot to get upsides. Zarcandar and the third Thousand Stars were first two practically throughout.
More’s to the point, it should be remembered this was cracking form put up by a novice taking on established grade 1 performers. Very few do that and it requires more ability. Second at Aintree achieving his best rating up to that point. I’d already backed TNO for the Champion by the time he lined up in this and was delighted with the run and bookies were impressed to, shortening him up quite a lot if I remember rightly.
I accept and have allowed for all of the above Mark. The fact remains that the horses came over the last virtually neck and neck and it should have been all about which horse could outrun the other from that point to the finishing line.
Nigel Twiston-Davies has said that The New One possesses a
"Phenomenal Turn Of Foot"
, surely if that is the case, the horse has always had it, and Nigel didn’t find it lying at the back of the horse box under a mountain of hay at some stage after the Zarkandar race?
Based on so many short priced wins for The New One and his tendency to lose when he isn’t odds on I just can’t see any value in him at 3/1. The best of luck to him if he can pull it off but he just seems a horse who has needed a fair share of excuses in his time.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
He is definitely not a battler, unable or unwilling to put his head down and stretch in a tight finish.
Good write up on the whole Joe, but where is the evidence for this?
He’s lost all 3 head-to-heads he’s been in, by which I mean in close physical proximity to the winners – At Fisher’s Cross, Zarkandar, & MTOY. I accept that in the last one, his final flight blunder arguably cost him the race, but that does not change the fact that he didn’t put his head down (and that was against another dubious battler).
In the close finish he did win at Aintree, he was miles wide of RoR, though he almost idled his way to defeat imo.
Have a look at them, and see what you think.
I have Joe.
TNO got outstayed by THE best novice stayer At Fishers Cross over 2m4f110yrds on heavy ground around a stamina sapping course. Would you really expect him to win? Can’t see how that was disappointing at all, I backed AFC for the Albert Bartlett and The New One for the Neptune after that.
TNO was a novice taking on established Grade 1 hurdlers at Aintree and put up his very best novice performance. How is that disappointing?
TNO was taking on a horse with bags of pace around the sharp Kempton track in a slowly run race and yet outspeeded My Tent Or Yours from the home turn, only losing out because of a mistake at the last. And MTOY is not a "dubious battler" either, just barely stays a stamina sapping 2 miles.
Surely you’ve got to look for other possible reasons for things? Not just say he’s lost out in three close finishes and has a high head carriage therefore must be no battler.
He’s by Kings Theatre, so paternal grand-sire is Saddlers Wells. It’s a line well known for a high head carriage; doesn’t mean they’re ungenuine. I would’ve thought you’d know that Joe, another Kings Theatre horse, Cue Card has always had a high head carriage yet is very genuine (or was before injury).
Value Is EverythingZarcandar often travels on and off the bridle David, so although visually The New One was "travelling a good bit better", you never quite can tell how much more Zarc has up his forelegs. He was also blinkered for the first time over hurdles that day; getting a bit more out of the horse. This was 21 months ago, a very young Sam against the Master, Ruby. It was a slowly run affair where Walsh was given a very easy lead of a couple of lengths. If looking at where the principles came from, TNO did by far the best of the hold up horses. Using his turn of foot to get upsides. Zarcandar and the third Thousand Stars were first two practically throughout.
More’s to the point, it should be remembered this was cracking form put up by a novice taking on established grade 1 performers. Very few do that and it requires more ability. Second at Aintree achieving his best rating up to that point. I’d already backed TNO for the Champion by the time he lined up in this and was delighted with the run and bookies were impressed to, shortening him up quite a lot if I remember rightly.
I accept and have allowed for all of the above Mark. The fact remains that the horses came over the last virtually neck and neck and it should have been all about which horse could outrun the other from that point to the finishing line.
Nigel Twiston-Davies has said that The New One possesses a
"Phenomenal Turn Of Foot"
, surely if that is the case, the horse has always had it, and Nigel didn’t find it lying at the back of the horse box under a mountain of hay at some stage after the Zarkandar race?
Based on so many short priced wins for The New One and his tendency to lose when he isn’t odds on I just can’t see any value in him at 3/1. The best of luck to him if he can pull it off but he just seems a horse who has needed a fair share of excuses in his time.
Yes, TNO has always had that turn of foot and used it to good effect.
There are so many other things to consider. TNO’s very best form is at 2 miles. I would have doubts about backing him to reproduce it these days at 2m4f. Arguably his turn of foot is at its best at the shorter distance, where stamina is not so prevelent and speed a stronger weapon.
You say he’s got beaten when odds against, isn’t that to be expected? The Champion Hurdle third (when taking in to account being hampered) was a better performance than most of the odds-on successes.
But I very much agree with your assessment of value. 3/1 is poor, can see him going off quite a bit bigger on the day.
Value Is Everything
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