- This topic has 70 replies, 24 voices, and was last updated 10 years, 10 months ago by
.
- Posts
The other delusion among many, including most of the CH4 team, is that the OC fall cost TNO the Champion Hurdle – that is inexcusably poor race-reading.
Hear hear.
I’ve never quite understood that. He had more than half of a two-mile race to go when Our Conor fell, and you’d think a hampering at that stage wouldn’t have too much of an effect.
At best, had he not been hampered, he would have been very close to MTOY, but he wouldn’t have finished any better than third. That said, had Our Conor not fallen, TNO may not have placed. Hard to tell.
If Faugheen, Hurricane Fly and Jezki are anywhere near their best, it will take a lot for him to place.
BlueSky @pghenn.bsky.social
So don't run, just like the others always do
For me there is only one piece of form that points to The New One winning this year’s Champion Hurdle and that is last year’s Champion Hurdle.
Great piece Steve but the aboves the bit we only need to concern ourselves with.Unlike ‘Sprinter Sacre’ who needed to be 99% fit for yesterdays ‘medical’
The New One
is still to be fine tuned for the Champion hurdle.Granted good ground TNO will do his usual thing,fluff a few hurdles but quicken up on landing so as to maintain a position,’Faugheen’ will go for home a long way out and make this a course record pace because we know this fellow stays.TNO will need all his quickening powers to get upsides and when he does it really will be a battle royal.TNO’s hardened to that and always delivers will ‘Faugheen’??
Where did The New One quicken in last year’s Champion Hurdle though Gord?
I never saw him quicken at any stage, he was flat out for a long way in my eyes.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
My Tent or Yours pulled his chance away and cost himself vital energy yet it’s the hampering that cost The New One the race.
Charles Darwin to conquer the World
Where did The New One quicken in last year’s Champion Hurdle though Gord?
I never saw him quicken at any stage, he was flat out for a long way in my eyes.
Steve,my take on last years Champion hurdle was quite simply had
The New One
not been stopped in his tracks by ‘Our Conors’ fall he’d have won and thats coming from someone who couldn’t see Twisters horse getting past ‘MTOY’.I learned a lot about TNO from that.
Sams lost a good 5 lengths from the fall,he was upsides ‘MTOY’ to that point,approaching 3 out he’s made up the ground to within a length of ‘MTOY’because he travels so easily across Good ground,’MTOY’ makes a move downhill and the pace quickens again,Sams horse is caught a little flat footed and again he’s 3 lengths down at the 2nd last,all the time the leaders are quickening and Sams possibly been caught off guard through inexperience. At the last TNO is a good 5 length off ‘MTOY then as the 1st 2 home battle it out at a breakneck gallop ‘Hurricane Fly’ runs on at the one pace and TNO absolutely flys past him quickening up the hill faster than anything,he cuts a 5 length lead down to half that at the line and you cant see where he quickens from Steve!
He’ll cut this ‘Faugheen’ down too this year as Sam wont get caught out through pace changes during the race imo.My Tent or Yours pulled his chance away though Gord. He beat Jezki comprehensively in the Supreme and was backed on the day is if defeat was out of the question starting joint favourite at about 3/1 from a morning price of around 6/1 if memory serves me right for the Champion. He beat The New One at Kempton a race which end up a bit of a battle with The New One going down against a horse that wasn’t renown as a battler. Faugheen hasn’t had to battle in his life and if it comes down to that it might be one battle too many for The New One against a lighter raced horse as fresh as a daisy but and as strong as a bull.
Charles Darwin to conquer the World
Where did The New One quicken in last year’s Champion Hurdle though Gord?
I never saw him quicken at any stage, he was flat out for a long way in my eyes.
Steve,my take on last years Champion hurdle was quite simply had
The New One
not been stopped in his tracks by ‘Our Conors’ fall he’d have won and thats coming from someone who couldn’t see Twisters horse getting past ‘MTOY’.I learned a lot about TNO from that.
Sams lost a good 5 lengths from the fall,he was upsides ‘MTOY’ to that point,approaching 3 out he’s made up the ground to within a length of ‘MTOY’because he travels so easily across Good ground,’MTOY’ makes a move downhill and the pace quickens again,Sams horse is caught a little flat footed and again he’s 3 lengths down at the 2nd last,all the time the leaders are quickening and Sams possibly been caught off guard through inexperience. At the last TNO is a good 5 length off ‘MTOY then as the 1st 2 home battle it out at a breakneck gallop ‘Hurricane Fly’ runs on at the one pace and TNO absolutely flys past him quickening up the hill faster than anything,he cuts a 5 length lead down to half that at the line and you cant see where he quickens from Steve! He’ll cut this ‘Faugheen’ down too this year as Sam wont get caught out through pace changes during the race imo.That wasn’t a turn of foot Gord. A turn of foot comes when a horse is travelling well within itself and then either lengthens, or quickens in order to accelerate past his opponents. You can’t convince me that a horse who is under the pump to keep up with the first few, and makes little impact for a long enough way, suddenly finds a turn of foot when it is all too late for it to do any good. Hurricane Fly wasn’t keeping on at one pace, he was dropping back so badly that the jockey needed a pair of oars.
If that
is
a turn of foot it must be the slowest developing turn of foot in the history of horse racing and you get the impression that the jockey will need to ask for the turn of foot after they have jumped two flights in order that it can start to effect after jumping the last.
There is a clear phase of the race where The New One can’t go with the first four and the only two he managed to pass were a 100/1 shot who had kicked too early and Hurricane Fly who had made his bid for glory but was quickly repelled by the 1-2
The New One was close up enough to go with the leading four when they went on but he just couldn’t match the pace at that stage of the race. I would see your argument for the fall costing The New One the race if it had happened late in the race, cost him six lengths, and he then made headway all the way and lost by the margin he did. The fact is the fall happened early and he regained his position without too much desperation from the jockey. He was travelling as well as anything when they quickened up and just couldn’t match them at that time. The jockey gets pretty serious with him without much success and he stays on past the beaten horses. The front two jockeys are, rightly, only concerned about each other and ride the finish accordingly. They are probably both tiring a bit and it makes The New One look like he’s finishing like Dancing Brave in comparison.
If The New One has such a good turn of foot I wonder why he couldn’t catch Zarkandar in the Aintree hurdle a couple of year’s ago? That seems a horse he should have mown down easily but he couldn’t get there.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
My Tent or Yours pulled his chance away though Gord. He beat Jezki comprehensively in the Supreme and was backed on the day is if defeat was out of the question starting joint favourite at about 3/1 from a morning price of around 6/1 if memory serves me right for the Champion. He beat The New One at Kempton a race which end up a bit of a battle with The New One going down against a horse that wasn’t renown as a battler. Faugheen hasn’t had to battle in his life and if it comes down to that it might be one battle too many for The New One against a lighter raced horse as fresh as a daisy but and as strong as a bull.
I think ‘Jezki’ drifted on the day Nath,he was as short as 6/1 Ante-Post too,definitely touched 10’s with the ‘Hurricane’ always around the 3/1 mark with ‘MTOY’ and ‘TNO’ but like you say ‘MTOY’ pulled like a train.He just doesn’t battle up the hill sadly.
Steve,all I’ll say is ifThe New One
finishes up the hill like he did last year granted a clear round he’ll win.We’ll see mate.
What I will re-iterate though is Sam needs to keep tabs on the leaders this year,he allowed himself too much time decision making when others had made theirs,several times in the race,particularly when they left him again going downhill from the 3rd last.Jezki is being overlooked in all our discussion. He’ll be trained for one race and one race only, whereas you would imagine Hurricane Fly is being campaigned to mop up those Irish Grade ones with Cheltenham a major target but not teh be-all and end-all. McManus has shown frequently that he will sacrifice an entire season to land a Cheltenham prize and Jezki and, to my eyes, More Of That both have one race and one race only as a target.
On these pages a couple seasons ago , I earmarked The New One as a potential World Hurdle horse. I was, and still am , surprised as to why Nigel Twiston Davies did not follow the staying route , as the horse seems tailored made for that game. Anyway, he didn’t, so let’s cut to the chase .
The New One will not win the Champion hurdle. He doesn’t possess the natural speed required to take the title.
Barring a fall, Faugheen will trot up. When he won at Cheltenham last year , he looked a tremendous prospect – when he won at Kempton on boxing day, he looked nothing less than the real deal , and his trainer said he wasn’t fully fit that day . Ruby Walsh’s knowing smirk when talking about Faugheen’s chances on yesterday’s Morning Line spoke absolute volumes.
I will go out on a limb here and say that Faugheen reminds me very much of another highly talented horse ; the ill-fated Golden Cygnet – who would have gone to rule the hurdling world. Yes, I think he’s that good. Let’s just hope he justifies my high opinion of him .
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Agree with TNO’s turn of foot, it’s always baffled me when TNO is talked about as a speed machine and Faugheen’s top speed has been constantly questioned, perhaps that’s because he’s got no other obvious weaknesses to discuss or query and because he’s been run over 3 miles they assume his speed mustn’t be his strong suit.
All being fit, I see the champion going much like the supreme last year, Faugheen to outpace them turning in to the straight and to go half a dozen lengths clear, he’ll likely come back to them and get that cut in half to about 3 or 4 lengths at the finish, but he really doesn’t look like a horse to fade for me, the real battle will be for second between Jezki and TNO I feel. Jezki does seem to be overlooked like he was last year, not least by me, so I think he’s a good price, but can’t see a repeat happening?
HF, who knows, I’d love to see him there or there abouts at the finish, but unless something crazy happens with the weather, it must be too sharp for him again.
Vautour won the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle last year.
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/
It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Vautour won the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle last year.
Assume that The Neptune was meant.
Coming away from The New One for a moment, what do people think the handicappers will do with Bertimont’s handicap mark after running this close to the superior horse?
Rated 149 beforehand he has just finished fifteen lengths closer than he did behind The New One in December, off the same 8lb concession terms. Of course the ground was heavier this time but I wonder how the handicappers will rate Bertimont after this effort?
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Ah yes, the Neptune indeed, Vautour clearly on the mind today!
I don’t think the handicappers will compare Bertimont to TNO too much, he just jumped so atrociously and wasn’t enjoying himself out there.
There were some poor horses in the field on the same weight who weren’t a million miles away at the finish, so I don’t think they’ll be too cruel to Bertimont, a few pounds maybe?
For me there is only one piece of form that points to The New One winning this year’s Champion Hurdle and that is last year’s Champion Hurdle.
Great piece Steve but the aboves the bit we only need to concern ourselves with.Unlike ‘Sprinter Sacre’ who needed to be 99% fit for yesterdays ‘medical’
The New One
is still to be fine tuned for the Champion hurdle.Granted good ground TNO will do his usual thing,fluff a few hurdles but quicken up on landing so as to maintain a position,’Faugheen’ will go for home a long way out and make this a course record pace because we know this fellow stays.TNO will need all his quickening powers to get upsides and when he does it really will be a battle royal.TNO’s hardened to that and always delivers will ‘Faugheen’??
The new ones form is there for all to see. He is probably a couple pounds better than Rock on Ruby which at this juncture possibly makes him good enough to win this champion hurdle. His limits can be seen though.
My problem with Faugheen is simple. This time last year, he was bunny hopping a few hurdles to win a 3 miler in Limerick on desperate ground. Not much two mile form on fast ground against specialists and if he jumps like he did last year where he was very poor at a few crucial late hurdles, he could put himself in a lot of difficulty.
I would back any of the ones in the top 4 of the betting at a price but i could have confidence in none.
SHL
Returning to the race on Saturday, I’m inclined to think that a horse that jumps as badly as TNO did may well have been hurting, and that it would be no great surprise if later this week we are told he has an injury and will miss Cheltenham.
It’s quite reasonable for a horse to shift right or left at an obstacle in order to meet it in stride, but to veer right like he did and then jump badly, suggests he was trying to evade something that was causing pain on the his left side. He hardly made a proper shape over any of the last six hurdles and the only time in the last mile he looked comfortable was when he reached the stand side rail on the run-in.
The presence of the 125 rated Swaledale Lad in 4th, only 14 lengths off the winner, puts the form in perspective. A rating rise for Bertimont would be the perfect way for the handicappers to discourage trainers from running in this type of race.
Returning to the race on Saturday, I’m inclined to think that a horse that jumps as badly as TNO did may well have been hurting, and that it would be no great surprise if later this week we are told he has an injury and will miss Cheltenham.
It’s quite reasonable for a horse to shift right or left at an obstacle in order to meet it in stride, but to veer right like he did and then jump badly, suggests he was trying to evade something that was causing pain on the his left side. He hardly made a proper shape over any of the last six hurdles and the only time in the last mile he looked comfortable was when he reached the stand side rail on the run-in.
The presence of the 125 rated Swaledale Lad in 4th, only 14 lengths off the winner, puts the form in perspective.
Went through my mind too AP. Although The New One has jumped right before it’s never been to such an extent. Review team on C4 suggested he "followed the leader" (Got The Nac) in doing so, but I didn’t see it that way. May be he’s a changed horse now, not suited by being in front of the chasing group? But he’s been infront from a long way out before and not done it. So there must be a fair chance of something hurting. At one point wondered if Sam would pull him up!
Can’t see the evidence for thinking TNO has "no turn of foot" or being "too slow for a Champion". Ability rather than speed is key. Most often, Cheltenham Festival races are run at a faster over-all pace than other races. A "faster over-all pace" ironically often means the top speed of a race is slower. Many horses do much better at the Festival than elsewhere because it is the only time in the year they get an equal pace throughout; winning the race through staying on rather than a change of pace (eg Get Me Out Of Here). Jezki has been outspeeded this season by a horse with a superior turn of foot, Hurricane Fly. I expect a better performance from the Harrington horse come March… The New One has shown a fine turn of foot anyway. My Tent Or Yours is recognised for having great speed… And yet TNO more than matched him in a slowly run race at Kempton; a far less stamina sapping course than Prestbury Park. Crucial mistake at the last costing victory.
Value Is EverythingI’m with Alan – extract from my post in the CH thread below.
Ginger, MTOY – great speed? He showed it once in a good, but slowly run race at Newbury off 149. He’s shown his class against much lesser lights in imposing fashion, but in the top division I’d say great speed is what he doesn’t have. Like many of his ilk who travel so impressively, there isn’t much there at the end of Grade 1 well run races.
Even at Kempton, he took a fair bit of stoking up to steadily get to TNO and then held on against a horse who, as I’ve mentioned a few times, either does not fancy a head-to-head or has something ailing him (although the bad mistake, of course, seriously affected him).
Yesterday was the first time I’ve seen him hit so many with his front legs. He just was not picking up his feet. It might be that he hates the ground and fears slipping, and that lack of confidence makes him want to not jump at all.
But something like that added to a horse going right at jumps can also point to the animal trying to avoid pain. If he’s hurting somewhere on his left side, like a human, he will try to avoid putting pressure on the hurt point. That’s why I’m also concerned about his increasing tendency to carry his head to the right at times.
It could also be a factor in his apparent laziness (to my eye, at least). He takes some persuading to get to top gear, and the worse the ground the lazier he seems. That might seem obvious – no horse is going to quicken as easily in bad ground as on good. But in the class he’s been running in lately, he really should be cruising past them at will.
Anyway, I’m speculating. But it’s always made sense to me that physical problems with some horses are never diagnosed because the symptoms of them only show under racing pressure – something they never experience at home.
Cue Card would be a classic case. The yard continue to insist that, based on homework, the horse has never been better – ‘he’s flying’, ‘we’re very confident’, ‘he’s 110%’. The fact that the formbook says otherwise is ignored because they want so badly for the horse to be everything he was.
TNO travels so well and exhibits the general traits of an honest horse, that I’m guessing there’s a physical problem somewhere with him. Whatever the truth is, I won’t be backing him. Good luck.
He’ll cut this ‘Faugheen’ down too this year as Sam wont get caught out through pace changes during the race imo.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.