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Despite the fact punters go on to invest cold hard cash based on often flimsy explanations, racing is never short on readily accepting excuses for disappointing displays.
It is hard to elicit a brutal assessment from the media, still less anyone they interview in the industry (other trainers, jockeys, etc).
The fact is that The New One (OR going into this race of 167) jumped poorly at times and was all out to give 8lb and a two and a quarter length beating to Bertimont (OR 149).
Will he be fitter at Cheltenham? Yes.
Will the ground be better? Probably.
Will he win the Champion Hurdle?
Much though I love the horse, I doubt it.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Boys ,,,do the New One a favour ,,,post him a picture of Faugheen ,,,because when the champion hurdle starts , he wont see him any more
This lad might be better at chasing , but champ hurdle , no way , not even in your horse box Corm
He’s never struck me as a pure speed horse and I think if Darlan was still around, The New One may well have gone chasing this season. Although if he went chasing next season, he’d be nine before his first Champion Chase/Ryanair.
I think when you look at the next five UK trained horses in the Champion Hurdle lists, (Vaniteux, Irving, Purple Bay, Sign Of A Victory and Garde La Victoire), he’s pretty much the best of a desperate bunch. Hopefully, in L’Ami Serge and the several good juveniles, there may be a revival next season.
The New One is just lucky that Tea For Two wasn’t in that field today. He’d have torn him a "New One" for sure
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
World Hurdle horse, I’m afraid
I have too many bad memories of At Fisher’s Cross running The New One down to believe the latter horse would last three miles.
The key to The New One’s long list of wins has been the trainer’s knack of getting him into races where he starts odds on so many times.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
There was an apt saying in The Weekender a few years ago…
"You don’t win Cheltenham races at Ascot in December."
I.e the ground changes and race conditions are very different as the season evolves.
For Ascot in December read Haydock in January.
The New One would benefit from a pacemaker in the Champion Hurdle. A true test of stamina at 2 miles can only be beneficial to his chances.
Gee Whizz lest we forget goes out the window with some on here.I thought ‘MTOY’ was a certainty for both the ‘Supreme’ hurdle and the ‘Champion hurdle’,we all know what happened there.What I will say though is based on this years fields best form
The New One
is still the best horse in the race and ‘Faugheen’ will give him something to aim at.The way TNO ran up the Cheltenham hill last year proved me wrong.Forget today the real horse will turn up at Cheltenham in March and sprint home.The only thing that can beat him is if he falls.
While the result looked desperate for The New One today, it is to his testament that he still showed lots of heart and grit to pull the race out of the fire. Many horses would’ve given up and withered under those circumstances.
I’ve often found that horses who triumph in workmanlike fashion are amongst some of the toughest out there. The New One will be a hard nut come Chelters.
For me there is only one piece of form that points to The New One winning this year’s Champion Hurdle and that is last year’s Champion Hurdle.
The New One has been beating up horses he has had plenty in hand of this year and we would all expect that the other three horses in the first four in the betting for the Champion Hurdle would have dished out the same punishment to the lesser rated horses.
With that in mind we need to ask how unlucky The New One was last year and whether he lost the race because of the horse that fell in front of him.
I don’t know how many times I watched the replay of the 2014 Champion Hurdle but it is a large number and I made the following observations:-
1. Steeplechasing has said that he feels The New One lacks the speed for a Champion Hurdle but I felt he kept pace well enough last year in the early stages. He had a good enough position and there were no obvious signs that things were happening too quickly for him. If there was a lack of pace, it was to be displayed later.
2. The big talking point and the sad element of the race was the fall of Our Conor who lands right in the path of The New One. The race comments state that the Twiston-Davies horse was "Badly Hampered" but watching the race again and again it doesn’t look as bad as it first seems. Happening at 1m 50s into the video below, The New One gets his legs tangled up a bit in the stricken horse’s legs but he never looks like falling and his loss of momentum is very short and he gets going again almost immediately. To me he seems to lose about six lengths on the others before starting to work his way back into the race. What compounds his margin behind the leader is that the fall happens just as Captain Cee Bee is starting to press on.
3. Captain Cee Bee gets a bit of a lead on his field but we know it’s only ever going to be temporary and as the others close down on him we see that The New One is in quite a good position behind the main protagonists. For me it is from 3m 0s into the video where The New One loses the race. If you run the video from this point on you will see the three McManus horses and Hurricane Fly start to get away from The New One and he starts to come under pressure. If you watch him jump the hurdle at 3.29 he lands and comes under strong pressure and I think this is the phase that cost him the race.
4. It’s getting down to the nitty gritty and as Captain Cee Bee drops back Hurricane Fly actually seems to head the field briefly under hands and heels riding at 3m 39s while The New One is under the pump in behind. The Fly’s effort is very short lived though and the McManus pair quickly assert jumping the last at 3m 51s and they put a lot of distance between themselves and the beaten Hurricane Fly who drops away quickly. It is only now that The New One seems to be travelling well enough to become involved and he cuts the spent Fly down at the same time we are expecting AP to drive My Tent Or Yours past Jezki. The New One finishes well in relation to the front two but my suspicion is they could have held him off for a bit further still.
That’s my take on the race after multiple viewing but you can all relive it here and form your own opinions:-
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hsj81XUqdmI
Sure, The New One was unlucky but I feel it was the section of about 30 seconds from the 3 minute mark where he lost tabs on the front four that was his downfall to a greater extent than the tangle with poor old Our Conor.
Going into this years race I have question, whether The New One will be sitting comfortably behind the field travelling sweetly at the same 3 and a half minute stage with Faugheen also in the field now?
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Faugheen will hack up in the Champion Hurdle. That’s all anyone needs to know really.
I just compared my speed figures of
The New One
and
Faugheen
together.
THE NEW ONE
17Jan15 Hay 16Hy C1HG2 42K 1/7 (2¼L, Bertimont11-4) 1/6F
126
13Dec14 Chl 17GS C1HG2 74K 1/8 (4½L, Vaniteux11-0) 4/7F
113
22Nov14 Hay 16Sft C2H 61K 1/5 (2¾L, Zamdy Man11-3) 1/3F
130
19Oct14 Kem 16GS C1HL 14K 1/7 (2¼L, Hint Of Mint11-0) 2/11F
122
03Apr14 Ain 20Gd C1HG1 112K 1/7 (hd, Rock On Ruby11-7) 4/9F
140
11Mar14 Chl 16.5GS C1HG1 238K 3/9 (2¾L, Jezki11-10) 100/30
156
26Dec13 Kem 16Sft C1HG1 56K 2/6 (½L, My Tent Or Yours11-7) 5/6F
114
14Dec13 Chl 17Gd C1HG2 74K 1/7 (6L, Zarkandar11-8) 2/5F
113
20Oct13 Kem 16GS C1HL 14K 1/4 (10L, Rock On Ruby11-8) 1/2F
104
04Apr13 Ain 20Gd C1HG1 112K 2/9 (½L, Zarkandar11-7) 11/4F
98
13Mar13 Chl 21GS C1NvHG1 68K 1/8 (4L, Rule The World11-7) 7/2
113
FAUGHEEN
26Dec14 Kem 16GS C1HG1 57K 1/6 (8L, Purple Bay11-7) 4/11F
141
22Nov14 Asc 19.5Sft C1H 50K 1/7 (3¾L, Blue Fashion11-0) 1/4F
92
29Apr14 Pun 16Gd/Y NvHG1 46K 1/8 (12L, Valseur Lido11-12) 1/2F
110
12Mar14 Chl 21Gd C1NvHG1 68K 1/15 (4½L, Ballyalton11-7) 6/4F
137
28Dec13 Lim 24Hy NvHG3 15K 1/7 (5L, The Job Is Right11-6) 8/13F
85
07Dec13 Nav 20Gd/Y NvH 7K 1/8 (4¼L, Empire Of Dirt11-12) 1/9F
74
17Nov13 Pun 22Y MdH 7K 1/10 (6½L, Chute Hall11-12) 1/5F
58
When
Faugheen
earned his last speed figure of
141
at
Kempton
he never came out of second gear, can I see him improving past
The New One’s
top figure of
156
, no problem
National Hunt Ratings:
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Mike.
There was an apt saying in The Weekender a few years ago…
"You don’t win Cheltenham races at Ascot in December."
I.e the ground changes and race conditions are very different as the season evolves.
For Ascot in December read Haydock in January.
The New One would benefit from a pacemaker in the Champion Hurdle. A true test of stamina at 2 miles can only be beneficial to his chances.
Simply put but perfectly true Oasis.
For me there is only one piece of form that points to The New One winning this year’s Champion Hurdle and that is last year’s Champion Hurdle.
Great piece Steve but the aboves the bit we only need to concern ourselves with.Unlike ‘Sprinter Sacre’ who needed to be 99% fit for yesterdays ‘medical’
The New One
is still to be fine tuned for the Champion hurdle.Granted good ground TNO will do his usual thing,fluff a few hurdles but quicken up on landing so as to maintain a position,’Faugheen’ will go for home a long way out and make this a course record pace because we know this fellow stays.TNO will need all his quickening powers to get upsides and when he does it really will be a battle royal.TNO’s hardened to that and always delivers will ‘Faugheen’??
Steve, that’s just about my reading of the race, though I doubt he lost as much as 6 lengths when hampered. Even if he did, he was back on terms without expending much energy at all.
By lacking speed, I’m not saying he doesn’t travel well – he does. I mean exactly what you pointed out. When the race got serious with the top-notchers, he was several gears short for an awful long time, something he’s shown again and again since.
I can’t understand why many, including racing professionals say he has a storming turn of foot – far from it. He takes a long time to hit top gear, by which point others are fading, making him look to be going faster than he is.
The other delusion among many, including most of the CH4 team, is that the OC fall cost TNO the Champion Hurdle – that is inexcusably poor race-reading.
I agree SC, I’d like to see them making more use of him earlier, building his momentum and staying nearer the pace. I fear that if they lay off Faugheen then the Mullin’s horse, in possession of such a grinding, relentless galloping action, will prove extremely difficult to overcome.
It really is building up into a mouth-watering race when you factor in Hurricane Fly and a Jezki who will in all probability be more the Jezki of last March than the one who has been going under bravely this term.
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