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Head Of The Posse saved the day, the first two were dire.
£12 lost on Day Season Profit £138.92One small ew bet today, and a complete outsider in the 4.00 at Stratford, a long distance novice hurdle where it’s very easy to find reasons to oppose the market leaders.
I like this type of race as it often throws up a long price improver.LITTLE JUSTICE
might just be that improver today.
Third in her debut bumper, she ran well last time out before being badly bumped entering the straight.
Although she’d been scrubbed along for the last six furlongs or so, she kept her place well and ran like a stayer struggling with the pace rather than a reluctant animal. Six furlongs further to travel today
There was a lot to like about the way she stuck to her task before the interference and at 50-1 she’s worth a small bet, £5 EW placed80-1 with some firms….one’s I don’t have account with
Last selection was a NR
PEPE SIMO
looks a fairly safe bet at Fontwell, his form is far superior to his main challenger and I can’t see one to beat him in this field, only the fences stand between him and a debut win. Ruby Walsh is over for the one mount. £60 WIN (best odds etc 4-6) but this is a “bet to nothing” for me as I’m using part of my TRF bet365 tipping competition free bet prize as stake
The 4.10 might provide an ew opportunity against the very short priced favourite. I’d suggest a look at Major Millar or take a chance with Vicario who would have been carrying 12st7 if this race was run a year ago, loss of form since means that today he’s dropped to 10st8 and while he’s been out of form, he has been getting close recently. I’ll probably leave the race alone however.
Winter NH Profit down to £128.92
I’ve noticed that when thehorsesmouth and myself go for the same horse the strike rate is very good, today we both go for the first two below
Pointillise may be the "fly in the ointment ….if there is one…… I might be tempted into an ew saver, the price is much longer than I expected (10-1 as opposed to 7-2ish in my book).
If Mouse Morris was in better form I’d have gone in heavier on First Lieutenant although I think 7-4 is very skinny, strictly on what he’s achieved so far, he really shouldn’t be that much different than Noel Meade’s runner.£25 EW D FIRST LIEUTENANT & ARUCARIA
£2 EW TRIXIE, £2 EW TREBLE, Same two with RIP VAN WINKLE on the flatThe favourite is far too short, Pontillise is far too big at 12-1, £5 ew saver bet placed
I just wish Mouse Morris was in better form as 3-1 is a great price FL£8 lost on the day, a short head in the first race, a nose in the last cost me dearly.
Profit drops tp £120.92
Only two horses entered over the jumps next week that appeal right now, this might change as the declarations are finalised.
Tomorrow : BILLIE MAGERN Market Rasen depending on the price.
Thursday : FERRIS BUELLER Sligo, the third to run from my NH notebook (First two both won)BILLIE MAGERN
has been very impressive since being sent chasing and comes from a stable in a rich vein of form. His 6 lengths and 23 lengths defeat of Del Rio and Chicago Grey ( a winner twice since) is especially impressive, the runner up was conceding 5 lbs but had more experience over fences and his form in Ireland included a 7 lengths fourth at level weights behind the high class An Cathior Mor with Cousin Vinny in third, only 2 ½ lengths ahead.
Pause And Clause makes his debut over fences and has some excellent pieces of form over hurdles but has never won on better than soft ground and may not quite get this trip, especially if Billie Magern, who will need at least this distance, sets a testing pace
Invisible Man did well to win at Galway but beat some poor opposition, the form has been let down badly by all the beaten horses to have run since although two winners came out of his previous win on this course when ridden by Paddy Brennan who switches to Billie Magern today.£40 to win @ 9/4, stake from my bet365 “free” bets
£43.75 win GRAN TORINO @ 9/4 (bog) Last £20 of my free bets plus £23..47 of my own money
Stands out on form, needs a distance of ground, just hope the softer going provides the test of stamina needed.
Slight concern that He’s Our Man has been backed from 33-1 to 11-2 but his form is dire£86.25 won on day, free bets all used, good round of jumping by Billie Magern
£207.17 Running profit on new seaonSmall bet today
£5 EW FRED BOJANGALS
£5 EW Double with CAILIN NA RI"Fred" has a decent record at Sedgefield, ground will suit and has the best rating in the field, although it’s a chase OR. Usually need a run but worth a chance ew
Cailin Na Ri also likes Sedgefield and looks good for at least a place, shame I can find a third ew shot as a trixie would be my preferred bet.£19 profit on my two seconds
New Season Profit creeping up slowly, now £226.17I’d hoped to be having a decent sum on FERRIS BEULLER tomorrow but I’m unimpressed by the jockey booking, anyone know anything about 3 lb claimer NJ O’Shea? His riding % is very poor,Co I’d hope Conor O’Dwyer Ruby might have booked Ruby
The form of his point is working out really well.
Pretty impressive, apart from hitting the first fence!! Nice little earner!
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