THE MAJESTIC

[billion]

Crikey it’s hot enough here at the mo’ but still, have a nice time

manchester

and slap on the cream

Billy's Outback Shack

[elcartero]

Have a great time in Spain, Manchester….Looking forward to your selections when you return and I’m sure we’re all hoping that they are profitable rather than hysterically funny.

Yes tried horacebase and the systems that are on there, they must be quite a few on there now

A lot of them are very much back fitted imo

But it is a very good tool to use and you can donate so no monthly subscriptions.

Think i will stick with my RP data in my excel data base, i am off to Spain for a few days from Friday when i return i will post up some of my systems selections for us all to have a laugh at

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[billion]

One, poss. two for today – you pay’s your money and take your choice.

3.50 Market Rasen PICAROON 2/1 Non runner

3.05 Folkestone ABBONDANZA only 7/4

WON 6/4

Billy's Outback Shack

[billion]

Saturday 26 June

Oh dear I may just get this wrong today but if you know better please let us know!

Newmarket 2.15 JOLLY WOOD 7/1

LOST

*Newmarket 2.45 LAAHEB 5/2

WON 5/2

Newmarket 3.20 RED JAZZ 5/2

2nd

Chester 2.05 THE THRILL IS GONE 3/1

2nd 9/2

Lingfield 725 RAPID CITY (no early price other than exchanges and 2/1 was available with betfair) 2/1 available with about 50% of the on line offices

LOST

*Newcastle 2.00 HIMALYA 7/4

2nd

* Both LAAHEB and HIMALYA were forcast (D Mail) at 7/4 which (I think) under rules excludes them from selection but it is interesting that LAAHEB is available at 5/2 and so does this become a selection?

Billy's Outback Shack

[billion]

Selections for

June 27

One heck of a day tomorrow, I shall be racing of to "Dongleland" (Norfolk) and must be there in time to watch the BIG game.

So here are the possibles for Sunday, I have not used my normal D Mail betting forecast and have fallen back on to the SUN, there is not much difference between them and sometimes wonder if they are getting the prices in from the same agency

1.40 Uttoxeter BATTLE GROUP Nov. Hurdle C4 FcSp 7/4

LOST

4.00 Windsor EXCELLO Conditions C2 FcSp 7/4

LOST

Once again I believe these NOT to be selections as FcSp is below 2/1 but you may be looking at a diffent forecast.

4.10 Salisbury CROWN PROSECUTOR Auction Stks. FcSp 5/2

WON 5/6

Billy's Outback Shack

[billion]

Monday June 28

There are 4 races today but lets look at each one.

3.00 Wolv’s – Selling stakes – the fav is CHJIMES – 1LTO D4 but forecast at 7/4 is not selected

3rd

4.00 Wolv’s – Apprentice Claiming stakes – the fav is ORPENMINDED – 7 LTO and no distance win and is deselected

WON 1/1

3.15 Pontefract – Conditions stakes – fav PREMIER CLARETS, has a "D" in the form line and 3rd LTO but again is knocked out by the FcSp at 6/4

WON 10/11

7.10 Windsor – Selling Stakes – fav. is TIMETEAM – plenty of "D"s – FcSp at 11/4 but sadly 5th LTO

WON 8/1

Therefore . . . NO SELECTION TODAY

Billy's Outback Shack

[Dolus]

Hi Billion

Is it really 4 days since I last visited.

Regarding place odds, without looking it up I am pretty certain for EW betting at the bookies that it is 1/5th the odds to 3 places and 1/4 the odds to two places, (with the exception of large field handicaps where it is also 1/4 the odds). Of course not sure how this pans out with place betting on the exchanges.

I had RSB back in the year dot (well about 1997-1998), I had some fun with it looking for those golden threads. There were a lot of systems made from it but most were highly back fitted and were not really practical to use. For instance who would want to run a system that only produced 30 or 40 bets a year, boring in the extreme. Or how about one that made a huge profit over ten years but looking at the results it did not win a bean during the first two years and made a huge loss.

I seem to remember reading a short while ago that it is no longer available. Googling it appears to confirm this.

[billion]

Hi there

Dolus

,

Thanks for the reply maily regarding RSB. Even if "backfitting" is wrong it is a starting point and we have to start somewhere I guess.

Regarding "each way" betting.

If we go back to

MrE

it IS a mugs game but putting it into perspective I can understand his point of view because he took the betting game far more seriously than I do and in that context he is correct.

From a hobby player such as I with my silly 50p and £1 bets the place money can feel like I am winning (or at least not losing as much) and gives me the will to continue.

So for some of us "mug punters" and there are a few of us about even if not many on this forum I will continue to fly the flag for the few.

This brings me to a situation which keeps buzzing around my head and will try again to bring it to the fore but because I am not sure of the technicalities I am findind it hard to express exactly what I mean.

To profit from e/w 1/4 place payment a price higher than 4/1 is required.

To profit from e/w 1/5 place payment a price higher than 5/1 is required.

I don’t think there is much debate regarding this but when VALUE is brought to the table all theories can be shredded.

I think there is sometimes value (even if not e/w) with the price verses the number of runners for example: –

7/4 in a field of 20 can be said to be a very poor value bet but 7/4 in a much, much smaller field could be a good price indeed and therefore makes sense to ignore a 2/1 minimum.

I wonder if there is a table somewhere which equates prices to the number of runners – win or place?

All a bit long winded but think I have got there in the end.

Billy's Outback Shack

[billion]

Nothing whatsoever to get excited about today Tuesday June 29.

2.45 Hamilton – Claimer – my forecast fav. is at 5/4 (CRIMEA), it has a "D" and was only 6th LTO

WON 15/8

7.10 Stratford – Claiming Hurdle – Mr Mohican at 4/1 fav, 3 LTO but no "Distance" win. The Distance win is optional but for myself it is mandatory. This could be a case for half stakes if so fancied.

8.40 Stratford – Beginers Chase – Fav. Last Flight is shown at 13/8 – 2 LTO and no "D" (Previous BF is interesting but that is for another system.

For me – NO SELECTION TODAY

Billy's Outback Shack

[billion]

The last day of June and once again: –

NO SELECTION TODAY

Billy's Outback Shack

[nedloh]

Hi Billion,
Just reading through Darrells posts he has this posted,
"THE SYSTEM SELECTS ONLY HORSES THAT FINISHED 1ST 2ND AND 3RD ON THEIR LAST START ONLY, CURRENT SEASON.

ALSO THE SELECTION MUST BE QUOTED AT 2/1 OR MORE IN THE BETTING FORECAST.WHEN I SAY 2/1 I MEAN THE HORSE AS TO BE EITHER THAT PRICE 2/1 OR OVER.SEE EXAMPLE BELOW.

RAINBOW HIGH 6/4 RIGHT WIN 7/4 PERSIAN PUNCH 2/1 DOUBLE TRIGGER 7/2.PERSIAN PUNCH WOULD BE THE SELECTION PROVIDING IT WAS PLACED IN 1ST 2ND OR 3RD LAST TIME OUT, IF NOT THEN IT IS NOT A SELECTION. DOUBLE TRIGGER WILL NOT BE SELECTED BECAUSE PERSIAN PUNCH DID’NT QUALIFY, SO THE SELECTION PROCESS STOPS AND NO OTHER SELECTION MADE IN THAT RACE."
So it seems the selection does not have to be the favorite.
Any thoughts on this?
Frank.

[billion]

nedloh

– you have opened a whole new can of worms

In the meanwhile todays selection (as per before

nedloh’s

posting)

Redcar 7.45

PUDDLE DUCK

Class 6 Nursery. Fc Fav.. 7/2 1LTO "D" available 9/2 bet365

LOST

Although forecast fav. D Mail @ 7/2 it was 2nd fav in the early market – could this also change the situation.

Billy's Outback Shack

[winnersforu]

hi all.
Here are the rules for the majestic boys,

none handicaps

1st 2nd or third on last current season run only

quoted

won at the distance optional.

I used the sun orignally for selections, but me and mr.e eventually agreed on using the racing post, with great success.Hope you find helpfull.

Regards.
Daz

Hi Billion

According to Darrel the selection should be favourite.

[billion]

Hiya (again)

nedloh

,

With things being a little quieter now having done Mrs Billion,s bidding you made me put my thinking cap on.

Darrell

posted 15 June here saying: –

"Quoted favourite in the betting forecast 2/1 or greater"

My guess is what has happend is

Darrell

has modified the rules along the way such as at first he said "any betting forecast" then later decided to adjust to RP forecast.

"D" distance winner is optional is another vagary or at the very least is there if you so wish.

I will continue with the D Mail for my own convenience and remain constant with Fc fav plus being a "D" winner although nothing is set in stone and should anyone wish to modify for their own choice, why not.

It will be interesting if you do change to suit perhaps you will post them up and see what results you get, I would imagine you will achieve better prices with fewer winners but that is only a guess.

Billy's Outback Shack

[nedloh]

Hi
I’ll keep track of them for the month of July using the tissue prices from the Sportlife racing centre race cards. I won’t post them up as it might get confused. I’ll give a summary at months end if thats ok.
Frank

[billion]

I for one will look foreward to seeing the results

nadloh

. I think we are all easily confused here anyway so don’t worry too much about that.

Billy's Outback Shack

[billion]

Here is an interesting point.

Although Puddle Duck was forecast fav. (D Mail) when I checked the early morning market at Odds Checker it was way off the mark as 2nd fav.

And it lost!

I shall be watching this from now on

Billy's Outback Shack

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