Lincoln 2018

[The Ante-Post King]

I was at Nottingham the day Sharja Bridge won..He handled cut well and galloped into a headwind over the mile..He looks like his father but has his Grandsires stamina..The Lincoln looks tailor made for him off a mark of 99..14/1 is about fair but will be single figures if he turns up..I certainly think he will.

[stevecaution]

An interesting entrant at double carpet is Mitchum Swagger. They always seemed to think he had a good one in him because he kept some stiff company along the way. He only has three wins but he was given some impossible gigs and is only three heads and a neck away from being a 7 time winner and one of those races was group 3.

Now with Ralph Beckett it might help the horse to be in new surroundings and perhaps being campaigned more realistically. Handicaps would seem a better idea than taking on horses like Minding and Ribchester. The once rated 112 Mitchum Swagger is now down to 105 and although he is likely to have a weight higher than the historic winning marks, it is likely that a higher weight will win one of these days with the weights becoming ever more compressed.

I’ll have a think about it and see if my first selection Lahore gets aimed at the race.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[CharlesOlney]

I decided to have a fair go at reading the form for this today and have a few small stakes ante-post bets for a bit of interest for the flat build up.

My first look was at Oh This Is Us who was 2nd in this last year under Ryan Moore after looking certain to win 100 yards out. He won the 7 furlong handicap out in Meydan this week, the race he was defeated in last year before that herculean effort in the Lincoln. He’s 20/1 but I worry that he might not run with connections perhaps preferring to save him for group level races this season. I was also keen on the chances of Leader Writer who I quite fancied for the Cambridgeshire last Autumn only for Henry Spiller’s charge to put in a very lacklustre performance. He handles give well and I think would be suited to the demands of this. He doesn’t go very well fresh so I was very happy to see him put up a sterling effort to finish a fast finishing 4th at Lingfield last week. He’s rated 98 so more likely to end up in the consolation race which is why I didn’t get involved at 25/1.

So I’ve nibbled at 2 I think will get in if connections fancy their chances of running and 1 that probably won’t get in but if he does is a huge price so worth the risk.

I’ve taken 25/1 about Tony Curtis who will be racing off a career high mark of 105 but hasn’t been seen since finishing 2nd to Master The World off 102 in last year’s Betfred Mile at Glorious Goodwood. That was on soft ground and his only other race on such a surface was when finishing a creditable 4th in the 2016 Craven behind Stormy Antarctic. If conditions are suitably easy, as Doncaster usually throws up for this meeting, then I think he should hold a good chance if taking his a-game to the field. At 33s I’ve also gone for Ballard Down who will be racing off 102. This will probably end up being his first run for 245 days but he has a cracking record fresh and was last seen hammering Master The World off level weights in a soft ground Newmarket handicap over the mile. That was a smashing performance and this fairly lightly raced 5 year old son of Canford Cliffs could still have plenty more to offer. And finally at 100/1 a small tickle on Hayadh. This 5 year old left John Gosden’s yard for Rebecca Bastiman at the end of 2015 after showing pretty decent form including a decent win in a Newmarket conditions event. He won on his first start since at Wolverhampton earlier this month after a 845 day lay-off but I loved the way he went about his business and led all the way. He still could be anything and even though he’s unlikely to get in, at 100/1 I’m happy to see if he does. He’s entered at Newcastle on Wednesday night so I’ll be watching keenly to see how he gets on.

[stevecaution]

I always felt Hayadh was worth a try at 6F but he never got the chance and he never ran in the season I was keeping an eye out for him.

The ATR website shows him on 102 but that can’t be right. They have him as carrying 5 lbs extra but his previous rating was 92 and he then went up 3 lbs to a new OR of 95.

I do wish these websites would get it right. In the Ascot Chase ATR had Waiting Patiently as officially rated 156, when the true figure was 164. That could have put readers off backing the horse and it’s not asking much to check the figure before entering the data.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[LostSoldier3]

Decent win from Oh This Is Us last night but well worth watching it back – enjoyed a dream run around the inside while the 2nd and 3rd had to take the scenic route. Looked the 3rd-best horse in the race at the weights.

[stevecaution]

With Cheltenham over it’s time to take another peep at the Lincoln.

I can’t fathom that BetFred have three of them on 8/1 at the head of the market. That’s scandalous value at this stage.

8/1 three times is a third of the 100% book. Is it really 2/1 that one of the will win it?

I would rather bet 2/1 that one of the three will end up missing the race.

It will be interesting to see who is actually declared here because news about it has been pretty non-existent. Surely some information would help create some interest and stimulate the market. Maybe it’s the case that punters only take an interest five minutes before the race and decide to back the 4/1 Favourite? If it wins they then turn and go before telling everyone in the pub that they fancied it all Winter

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[stevecaution]

I’ve done Mitchum Swagger at 33/1 and with Lahore at 28/1 they are my two against the field.

I would rather take the chance that they don’t run than wait for the crappy odds likely after the declarations are made. There are some shockingly low odds already on some of the fancied ones and I think it’s suicidal punting at skinny odds in a race such as this.

Mitchum Swagger was due to run at Lingfield on 2nd March but the meeting was abandoned. I took that as a cue that he was ready to run and although they may have wanted to get a prep race into him, he’s experienced and hopefully can go here ready to rock.

The hope remains that Mitchum Swagger has a touch of class and is aimed at more like his level now after some very ambitious targets when with David Lanigan.

Lahore 28/1
Mitchum Swagger 33/1

My two big priced selections for this year’s renewal.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[viktors89]

Lahore is certainly an interesting selection Steve. I took a look at some of the entries and there are a couple I like at big prices. Fire Brigade has a nice profile but the odds at the given moment are ridicolous:

Original Choice
Humbert

Anyone got news on those two?

EDIT: https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/15/doncaster/2018-03-24/692570
Number on each horse is the “priority” they have to enter in the race? Still trying to understand how the weight thing goes to enter in a handicap.
If it is the way I suspect, it is very unlikely that Humbert enters, placed at 67 in the moment.

[stevecaution]

Viktors, Because the maximum fields size is now 22, they have to ballot out entries above that number from the line up. This is to meet the safety standard set out for this race. The maximum field size varies for different races.

The horses with the highest handicap ratings are given priority and when the declarations are made it is the 22 highest rated of those left in the race on that day, who get to stay in the race.

If your horse is still in the race that day and is only eliminated to comply with the maximum field size, ante-post bets will be refunded but if your horse was not declared for other reasons, you lose your money under ante-post rules.

It is pretty certain that Humbert will not get in this year. He needs 45 other horses to be out of the declarations and you are needing a horse rated nearly 100 to get a run in the Lincoln these days.

Interesting horse though.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[jackh1092]

On first glance the two that jump out to me are:

Donncha- third in the race last year, he’s down 3. He’s hard to win with to be fair, and didnt run well his next 3 starts. I presume he may have picked up an injury after his last run as he wasnt seen out again after July. He also finished 2nd in the Spring Mile. He will be fine with a bit of give, and hopefully the fact he went here last year, is a sign they might go here again. 25/1

Afaak- Trainer doesn’t do too badly here. He has won here previously and his last run over 1m1, ties in with the fav and 3rd fav…His win here was good form, and i think at 20s is overpriced if he goes.

Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!

[nwalton]

At the moment think I will wait till declared, but am interested in the old boy Gabrial who to my eyes was just given a whizz round on his latest start. Hopefully he will still be 33s for my EW play, sorry to put kiss of death on Lahore but is another who catches the eye(as a few good judges have pointed out on here)

[viktors89]

Thanks for the clarification steve

[Venture to Cognac]

First one to jump out at me, though I did expect him to be in there anyway, is Fire Brigade. One of a very few notebook horses I have from the flat last year, and a long term fancy for The Cambridgeshire. No reason why he can’t take both in, so with ground conditions to suit, I’ll happily chance the 12’s. Small each way interest, but the majority of my cash will be win.

Another who’ll appreciate the going is Chelsea Lad. Decent run in The November Handicap here, and now going the right way, having seemingly gone off the boil for a while.

After a spin on the AW, Sands Chorus should be primed for this, but the going does throw up some question marks, and if he doesn’t trap here, I’ll keep him in mind for later in the season, while the ground may really be against Dolphin Vista here, though the 100’s with Black Type is almost enough for me to open an account with them.

Fire Brigade 12’s Win
Chelsea Lad 20’s Ew

[ham]

Grey britain 40/1

[aaronizneez]

Not sure if intended to run but I quite like the look of Escobar. First start for David O’Meara after leaving Hugo Palmer he didn’t quite hack it in Group races last year but he wouldn’t be the first horse O’Meara has produced to win a decent prize, Bravery being an example in this race last year. I’m aware it wouldn’t be O’Meara’s main hope but 20/1 available with many bookmakers

[stevecaution]

PaddyPower go 12/1 on Addeybb and that’s quite a standout from the rest.

I was looking at Grey Britain on the Racing Post website and was astonished to see the RPR for that horse last time. Not sure if it’s an error but the website shows that it recorded 1 for a 48 length defeat. I’ve never seen that before.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[jackh1092]

Anyone know the normal place terms on this?

Just weighing up whether to back Afaak and Donncha now, or wait?

Donncha is jocked up with Atzeni which is nice too!

Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!

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