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I’ve backed Fingal Bay at 8s and What a Warrior at 25s (latter price won’t last imo). Will add Via Sundown once he’s jocked up.
I’ve stuck with an old favourite in Houblon des Obeaux EW at 40s even though he is really up against it.
My main bet is from one of my fav yards that is really firing at weekends now and if Rocky Creek can improve enough from his Down Royal opener he must go close at 12s.
I will cover both in RFC with Gords Smad Place
I’ve took the 40’s each way on Houblon myself Gdc. Wasn’t too far away in this last season, and although he’ll be 3lbs higher, any runner from this yard are always worth a second look. Seems to be a good time of year to catch him, and at least he can be bet just now, without having to worry about the weather forecast. If they go 5 places on Friday night, I’ll top up a few quid.
I think Smad Place may just edge it though, but just too difficult to be very negative about any of the front five in the betting.
As well as Houblon, I’ve tried to look at others who appeal at a decent price.
I’ve bet the stablemate of Smad Place,
Midnight Prayer
at decent odds, 110’s to 160’s, and I think, should he line up, then he might just surprise a few. Festival winner, where he showed he’s got the stamina to get competitive in this, and can go on any surface. Has also went well fresh in the past, so I just hope he’s allowed to take his chance.
The Nicky Henderson pair interest me. Last years winner
Triolo D’Alene
ran no sort of race in The National. He finished down the field in The Gold Cup, but he hardly disgraced himself either. He looks on the face of it, totally handicapped out of it, but still only a 7yo, not beyond the realms of possibility that NJH can get some more improvement out of him. I’ll keep any eye on the jockey booking. I’m certainly interested in
Hadrians Approach
, who isn’t far off top class. Unseated in this last year, and was a shade disappointing at Cheltenham. He did manage to win at Newbury last season though, a season which he rounded off in fine style, winning The Bet 365 Gold Cup. He showed plenty at Sandown that day, certainly enough to give encouragement here, and with scope for more improvement, then 7lbs wouldn’t be the end of the world. He’s never been the best of jumpers, but if this has been ironed out, then he might just be some value at 20’s. Henderson’s won it the last 2 years, would it really be that big a surprise if he kick started his season in this? Hadrians preferred of the 2, though Triolo still available at 25’s.
Merry King
was just out of the money in this last year, and for a horse who last won 2 years ago, he hasn’t been given much of a chance by the handicapper recently. Rarely far away though, and save for bursting a blood vessel at Haydock last year, normally runs his race. 16’s seems a fair each way price.
The same can’t be said for
Unioniste
, who is very in and out. Battled really well as a youngster to win the big December handicap at Cheltenham 2 years ago. More downs than ups since, though he did take care of Wishfull Thinking at Aintree last year. Very risky, and another not given much of a break at the weights, but at 28’s, and from a stable in top form, he might appeal to some at that price.
As I said, those at the front of the betting look very strong, with slight preference for Smad Place, and gun to my head, I could see him and Fingals Bay fighting out the finish.
I hope Midnight Prayer gets to take his chance though, as I think he could really go well. As well as topping up my Houblon 40’s, I might just add a few quid ew on Hadrians, once the 5 places gets offered, and I hope the 20’s is still available.
GL
Unioniste is one of those horses that when I back runs like a pig and then when I leave alone, wins. I will not be backing him Saturday so he has every chance
Denis O’Regan gets the ride on Smad Place with the Hutch and Choc both out injured.
He’s not the ideal jockey booking in my view – would have preferred someone a little more forceful.
Delighted that Denis has been given the opportunity in a big race. Very under used in my opinion and having met him at my local yards open day a really nice genuine bloke to.
Come on smad place!
Martin
The Betfair Chase has done for the Hennessy in terms of top class quality.
The winner, though, will need to be progressive, a thorough stayer and fully effective in very soft ground and 100% fit.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"I like Annacotty. Had a nice prep over an inadequate trip a few weeks back and jumped really well which can sometimes be his weakness.
Won the Feltham last year on similar ground with 1st time blinkers(granted not the strongest renewal) before a gutsy performance to finish 2nd behind Indian Castle off top weight on heavy ground in January before somewhat flopping in the RSA on ground likely too quick for him at this level.
His blinkers were left off for his prep run but will be back this weekend and he’ll set off from the front and i can see him asking a lot of questions of the horses in behind,at 25/1 i’m happy to go in e/w.The Druids Nephew and Fingal Bay for me.
Small stakes as I found it difficult to eliminate a lot of horses.
I can’t wait for tomorrow, the Hennessy is clearly one of my favourite race of the year.
My three horses for this year’s race:
1/
Rocky Creek
: He ran well last time out at Down Royal, just got beaten by a much fitter horse. He won’t be disturbed by the ground, he knows this race and he’s a pure stayer. I can’t be against him.
2/
Monbeg Dude
: He has always been in the mix to grab the places in big handicap races. He barely wins but he’s interesting for a third place.
3/
Midnight Prayer
: The way he ran throughout last season makes me think that he could be made for this kind of race. But this is a big step forward… Interesting weigth however. I believe in him for a surprise.
A good seasonal debut from
Rocky Creek
today and I would recommend taking the remaining 14/1 with Paddy Power for the Hennessey, after finishing in front of Boston Bob and First Lieutenant today in Ireland off level weights.
Mission Accomplished so far with a general 9/1 across the boards on Rocky Creek now.
Timeform seem lukewarm about him in their preview and somewhat predictably give their five stars to the favourite Djakadam.
I will be shocked if Rocky doesn’t make the first four.
If Djakadam’s jumping holds up he will be competitive on this mark and a case can be made for Smad Place and Many Clouds.
I’m less excited about The Druid’s Nephew, Fingal Bay and Merry King at their respective prices.
Unioniste is a young horse but slightly disappointed after a promising start last year and I thought they threw him in at the deep end when running him in The Lexus as a five year old.
Last year’s winner Triolo D’Alene is a whopping 33/1 to repeat the feat but went the wrong way afterwards last season and he now faces Rocky Creek on 5lbs worse terms and with the "had a race/not had a race this season" factor reversed this time.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Merry King ew@ 16/1 with Hills seems fair.
If you go to back a certainty always buy a return ticket.
I’d be very surprised if one of Rocky Creek or What a Warrior do not make the first five and at odds of 10-1 and 33-1 then a place will make a profit.
My two might not make the first five but at least one will beat Merry King. That horse has issues and this will not be a race he enjoys imho. I’ve backed him all races so I have a feeling about him and he is not up to this class.
i could back a dozen in this race (and would need to on my current form), but the value looks to be with Midnight Prayer, ridden by the sole claimer in the race. Tom Bellamy’s 5lb could make a substantial difference in this slog and I see he has a 36% strike rate over fences this season and 18% overall (last 5 seasons over fences). 25/1 looks good value.
The betfair layers appear to know something about What a Warrior, who’s easy to back at 43. Should be a fair bit shorter imo.
My two might not make the first five but at least one will beat Merry King. That horse has issues and this will not be a race he enjoys imho. I’ve backed him all races so I have a feeling about him and he is not up to this class.
I had a gut feeling Merry King might pop up in one of the really long distance races last season but it just didn’t happen for him and he looks a bit of a tricky customer at the moment, not having won for a couple of years.
At 11/1, and just a single point shorter than Merry King in places, Rocky Creek looks a much more realistic bet.
I’d have to be a lot more than Merry, to back the King.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Rocky has to be a more realistic winner and placer than Merry King who isn’t tricky in my eyes just simply not good enough (he’s probably a winner off around 136 max).
I hope WaWs price is due to the expected ground (can be closer to G/S than soft and the fact the Skeltons are still being underrated a little like DoM and Danny Tudhope) the one problem is if it is sift that 3M 2fs can stretch his stamina but he went away at Ludlow at 3m1f and was well clear of Merry King at Ascot over 3m. Not an obvious winner perhaps but likelier to place than many at 33-1 and can be a lay bet in running if getting to 2m6fs near the front.
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