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The front three from the JLT are now rated around the 159 mark. Djakadam runs of 142 with the five year old allowance.
I can’t see him beaten.
Smad Place to follow him home.
I agree about him being insanely well-treated, but does Djakadam definitely stay?
He has been campaigned at two miles and two and a half so far. His dam was bred to be a miler and his sire Saint Des Saints isn’t the most reliable producer of grinders. He did sire legit stayers Quito De La Roque and Quel Esprit, but most of his progeny are buzzy 2m to 2m 4f types – Irish Saint & Salut Flo for example.
If they go a really solid pace, Djakadam might get found out.
I agree about him being insanely well-treated, but does Djakadam definitely stay?
If they go a really solid pace, Djakadam might get found out.
Thats what I’m hoping TYF,I reckon
Smad Place
will stay all day but at the weights its a case of hoping
Djakadam
puts in the odd howler because so many good 2nd season chasers have won this off less than 11 stone.
The way Phillip Hobbs’s horses are running at the moment Fingal Bay has to enter the equation.
The price could be better but someone will offer 5 places come the weekend and this horse did beat Simonsig.Charles Darwin to conquer the World
The way Phillip Hobbs’s horses are running at the moment Fingal Bay has to enter the equation.
The price could be better but someone will offer 5 places come the weekend and this horse did beat Simonsig.I agree Nath,over hurdles he’d be a player but I’m not convinced by his jumping and he’s embarrassed himself before.
Yeah agree Gord. I’d want about 10’s at least and 5 places but he sure has the class and stamina. Hobbs seems upbeat and the yard are flying high but like you say the higher obstacles are the obstacle. I’ll wait until Friday night or Saturday morning and see what concessions are on offer.
Charles Darwin to conquer the World
There’s never been a 5 year old winner of this so while Djakadam looks a smart chaser in the making, he lacks the experience needed for such a test. There have been a few 6 yo winners as was the case last year but generally you require a seasoned campaigner. With the Nicholls yard coming to hand nicely my vote is for Rocky Creek, who although was ultimately outstayed last year I think he has the attributes to come out on top this time.
There’s never been a 5 year old winner of this so while Djakadam looks a smart chaser in the making, he lacks the experience needed for such a test. There have been a few 6 yo winners as was the case last year but generally you require a seasoned campaigner. With the Nicholls yard coming to hand nicely my vote is for Rocky Creek, who although was ultimately outstayed last year I think he has the attributes to come out on top this time.
I think Rocky Creek is sound value each way at 12/1 but the only slight worry if betting now is that he’s entered up in the Becher Chase the following week as well and he’s identically priced for that race.
Rocky Creek has jumped around the National Course so that’s obviously a bonus when going back to Aintree. I thought he ran a mighty race in the National before running out of petrol and the 3m2f of the Becher should be ideal for him.
A sound effort first time this season in the J N Wines, if he comes on anywhere near as much as Silviniaco Conti did for his first run, he’ll surely be a serious contender wherever he turns up.
Djakadam is way short and I have unhappy memories of Jodami being a "good thing" at the weights for the Hennessey, in the year before his Gold Cup success.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
There’s never been a 5 year old winner of this so while Djakadam looks a smart chaser in the making, he lacks the experience needed for such a test. There have been a few 6 yo winners as was the case last year but generally you require a seasoned campaigner. With the Nicholls yard coming to hand nicely my vote is for Rocky Creek, who although was ultimately outstayed last year I think he has the attributes to come out on top this time.
How many 5 year olds ran in the race Rich?
Doubt if many have run in this.
Therefore, I suspect one win by a 5 year old would mean (as a percentage) "statistically" 5 year olds having a "good" record……Which pretty much makes that statistic useless.
However, "experience" could be a factor. It’s the amount of runs and what happened in them that counts.
Djakadam has had 6 races over hurdles and 3 over fences, chase starts being 2 wins and (last run) a fall.
When Bobs Worth won it he had 2 Bumper starts, 4 hurdles and 4 chases, no falls.
Denman had 5 hurdles starts and 5 (all winners, no falls) chases.
State Of Play 2 bumpers, 6 hurdles and 4 chase starts.
Trabolgan 3 bumpers, 4 hurdles and 4 chases.
On the other hand, Diamond Harry had 2 bumpers, 7 hurdles but like Djakadam had only 3 chase starts – 2 winners and in his case a pulled up at Cheltenham.
I’d say Djakadam is exceptionally well handicapped, but "experience" and stamina are significant worries that make his current price look short… And although he "acts" on very soft ground, it would place even more emphasis on stamina.
Value Is EverythingNever? That’s some statistic rich.
You’ve put me off, truthfully.
No 5 year old ever, No Irish in 40 years.
Already had Many Clouds and might lay it off this week.
Midnight Prayer is unexposed in these races and goes well fresh. The Druids Nephew is another who looks well in.Dont really have time to trawl through the 5 yo runners but just found it interesting there has never been a winner – at a guess I’d say there’ve only been a handful but definitely think you require a more experienced horse for this toughest of tests.
The Hennessy is a proper test, like the RSA in many respects. When Star De Mohaison won the RSA as a 5yr old in 2006, he was a precocious French horse getting ten pounds from the other novices, on a mild day on Good ground.
Djakadam is facing a thorough test on Winter ground against seasoned handicappers and Grade 1 winners. He might win but i doubt it and the price is shocking.Djakadam
cut into 4/1 and 7/2 today and thats not public money,this is a serious stable gamble unfolding but why?? the last time this fellow ran he fell,he makes mistakes every time he runs and instead of jumping 12/14 fences he’s got to face 21 stiff ones over half a mile more than he’s ran before.The only appealing factor to this horse is his weight,he seems to have got in rather lightly for a JLT sort.Even allowing for that if a horse cant jump he’ll win nothing so the picture thats being painted here is that of a horse who has come on a ton during the summer.We’ll know soon enough if Willie Mullins got this fellow in tip top shape to win a Hennessey first time out.I do believe the ‘Ricci’ factor has a part to play in this gamble too.
Monbeg Dude could be a forgotten horse for the E/W backers. 20/1 seems quite nice for a horse who generally runs his race every time he’s out. Softer ground could see staying types like him come to the fore?
To play Devil’s Advocate with myself and all the other Djakadam doubters, maybe it’s worth comparing him to
Great Endeavour
. Great Endeavour, like Djakadam, was best at 2m 4f, though probably not as good as the Mullins horse.
Only two weeks after winning the Paddy Power, Great Endeavour ran in the Hennessy of 2011. He was given a classic Timmy Murphy stalking ride to challenge two out, but just ran out of puff in the end to finish fourth to Carruthers, beaten five lengths.
If Great Endeavour could go that close off 151, can a superior model of non-stayer scramble home off a lower mark? Djakadam can’t be far away.
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