November 5, 2006 at 19:17 #405
Salutations to you all,
I’m a new member and I happened upon this site by accident. A nice accident, as I just love talking about jumps racing (none of my friends do, twats) and like most jumps enthusiasts I spend all season looking forward to the festival.
So, I would love Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â to hear about all your thoughts/anti-post bets/triumphs/nightmares leading up to March.
A starting point: Normally I make it a rule to wait until around Xmas before I strike my first anti-post bet – I feel it ultimately sensible to see a bit of form. However a while back I struck my first bet of the season;
Arcalis 2pt win @ 40/1 to win the Champion Hurdle.
My reasoning is thus: He’s top class and capable of winning, most important. Last season after the Fighting Fifth, the horse never got his ground and coupled with his stable being out of sorts we never saw the best of him, in fact he’s was woeful since that Newcastle run. He needs genuine fast ground and with the climate the way it is, there is every chance come March. He’ll be 7yo come Cheltenham, the perfect age.
I loved the price but am I mad?
Looking forward to your replies.
GI MacNovember 5, 2006 at 22:30 #30290
Glad that you love my favorite sport. As Arcalis finished 5th in last year’s Champion hurdle then I’d say that 40/1 is probably good value – as you say there is scope for improvement because the stable was out of form and it’s surprising how horses can improve a lot when their trainer hits form ( look at jonjo’s this year so far ).
The only problem may be whether he will get the genuine fast ground which you say he needs – Cheltenham will probably water to ensure as safe a ground as possible following the number of horse deaths there at the last festival.
Good luck anyway. Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ÂNovember 6, 2006 at 18:01 #30291
Hi Swallowcottage, fair point on the ground, time will tell.
Have you any thoughts yourself on the Champion hurdle? I paid a visit to Wincanton on Saturday and I wasn’t overly impressed by Desert Quest, who should really be beating the likes of Crow Wood, despite the weight difference, if he is to be considered seriously. Not sure what to make of Noble Request’s run, Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â he was looking pretty fat in the paddock, the juries out for now.
<br>November 6, 2006 at 18:16 #30292MountyMember
- Total Posts 455
Wouldn’t put you off Arcalis – who goes 40-1? Best price on oddschecker is 33s.November 6, 2006 at 18:35 #30293
I placed my bet with Betfair.
Bizzarre; I’m just reading your book, trying to narrow down the Paddy Power fieldNovember 6, 2006 at 18:39 #30294
GI MAC Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â — Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â I’ll be tempted to back an ‘Irish trained winner’ for the Champion if the bookies offer it;)
It promises to be a really good race next March if all the contestants stay sound. I’ve always liked Asian Maze and there is also Detroit City & the improving Iktitaf to consider along with Straw Bear. Obviously Brave Inca and Macs Joy cannot be ignored either. I’ll make up my mind who to back nearer the race but Asian Maze is the one I like the most at the moment – have to see how she gets on.
(Edited by SwallowCottage at 6:40 pm on Nov. 6, 2006)November 6, 2006 at 18:44 #30295wanaMember
- Total Posts 9
You’ll get to see how your antepost bets stands on Sunday with a bit of luck..<br>Arcalis is topweight in the Greatwood hurdle,ground should be in his favour,<br>there are some decent animals in,but you’d be suprised if he didn’t go close.<br>JH Johnson horses are in great form,Arcalis hosed home last year on his first run and as trend followers may know having topweight or a big weight in the greatwood wouldn’t put you off,they have a great record..<br>Don’t think he’ll win come March,but if he goes close this Sunday,he will be half those odds and he would be a great trade…<br>Good LuckNovember 6, 2006 at 19:34 #30296CavParticipant
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Considering Fair Along only got beaten 5 lengths in the Triumph Hurdle by Detroit City I’ve had a few quid quid on him at 360/1 for the Champion Hurdle. He’s only 4 years old and made an encouraging reappearance at Cheltenham a few weeks ago. Just a fun bet but might be a big price if he runs in the race next March.November 6, 2006 at 19:53 #30297
The Irish certainly hold all the good cards, Fair along would have to be the Joker in the pack :biggrin:November 6, 2006 at 19:59 #30298davidbradyMember
- Total Posts 3901
Having disappointed in last years Stayers, I hope connections of Ambobo will see sense and run him in the Champion this season.November 6, 2006 at 20:13 #30299johnjdonoghueMember
- Total Posts 994
Detroit City hasn’t a hope in the Champion Hurdle, he has not got the cruising speed, definite stayers candidate all the same.
JohnJNovember 6, 2006 at 20:25 #30300seabirdParticipant
- Total Posts 2924
jjd, I tend to agree that Detroit City hasn’t got the pace for the Champion Hurdle but I felt that way before he won the Triumph.
ColinNovember 6, 2006 at 20:31 #30301
Don’t agree that Detroit City has not got a hope. Broke the course record when he won the Triumph hurdle last march and is presently in good form. Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Bookies make him second Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â favorite for the Champion.November 6, 2006 at 20:36 #30302davidjohnsonMember
- Total Posts 4491
I think that the problem with Detroit City is that he races lazily rather than needing further. Looking back at his races, he’s been showing the same style of racing at 12f on the flat around the tight all-weather tracks as he has over jumps and in the 18f Ces.
People are talking about Desert Quest and Noble Request being lively Champion Hurdle outsiders but Detroit City would be better than the pair of them on the clock judged by Triumph and County Hurdle times.
I’m not suggesting he’s any great value at 10’s for the Champion but I wouldn’t be in any hurry to lay him. Looking forward to seeing him return on Sunday and I think he’ll run a pretty big race in the Greatwood, even if saddled with top weight.November 6, 2006 at 20:39 #30303
Detroit City certainly divides opinion, if he does step up from winning the Triumph he’ll be some horse, for sure. 10/1 is no price.
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