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Viewing 15 posts - 1 through 15 (of 21 total)
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  • #405
    GI MAC
    Member
    • Total Posts 13

    Salutations to you all,

    I’m a new member and I happened upon this site by accident. A nice accident, as I just love talking about jumps racing (none of my friends do, twats) and like most jumps enthusiasts I spend all season looking forward to the festival.

    So, I would love  to hear about all your thoughts/anti-post bets/triumphs/nightmares leading up to March.

    A starting point: Normally I make it a rule to wait until around Xmas before I strike my first anti-post bet – I feel it ultimately sensible to see a bit of form. However a while back I struck my first bet of the season;

    Arcalis 2pt win @ 40/1 to win the Champion Hurdle.

    My reasoning is thus: He’s top class and capable of winning, most important. Last season after the Fighting Fifth, the horse never got his ground and coupled with his stable being out of sorts we never saw the best of him, in fact he’s was woeful since that Newcastle run. He needs genuine fast ground and with the climate the way it is, there is every chance come March. He’ll be 7yo come Cheltenham, the perfect age.

    I loved the price but am I mad?

    Looking forward to your replies.

    GI Mac

    #30290
    SwallowCottage
    Member
    • Total Posts 1008

    Glad that you love my favorite sport. As Arcalis finished 5th in last year’s Champion hurdle then I’d say that 40/1 is probably good value – as you say there is scope for improvement because the stable was out of form and it’s surprising how horses can improve a lot when their trainer hits form ( look at jonjo’s this year so far ).

    The only problem may be whether he will get the genuine fast ground which you say he needs – Cheltenham will probably water to ensure as safe a ground as possible following the number of horse deaths there at the last festival.

    Good luck anyway.  

    #30291
    GI MAC
    Member
    • Total Posts 13

    Hi Swallowcottage, fair point on the ground, time will tell.

    Have you any thoughts yourself on the Champion hurdle? I paid a visit to Wincanton on Saturday and I wasn’t overly impressed by Desert Quest, who should really be beating the likes of Crow Wood, despite the weight difference, if he is to be considered seriously. Not sure what to make of Noble Request’s run,  he was looking pretty fat in the paddock, the juries out for now.

    <br>

    #30292
    Mounty
    Member
    • Total Posts 455

    Wouldn’t put you off Arcalis – who goes 40-1? Best price on oddschecker is 33s.

    #30293
    GI MAC
    Member
    • Total Posts 13

    I placed my bet with Betfair.

    Bizzarre; I’m just reading your book, trying to narrow down the Paddy Power field

    #30294
    SwallowCottage
    Member
    • Total Posts 1008

    GI MAC  —  I’ll be tempted to back an ‘Irish trained winner’ for the Champion if the bookies offer it;)

    It promises to be a really good race next March if all the contestants stay sound. I’ve always liked Asian Maze and there is also Detroit City & the improving Iktitaf to consider along with Straw Bear. Obviously Brave Inca and Macs Joy cannot be ignored either. I’ll make up my mind who to back nearer the race but Asian Maze is the one I like the most at the moment – have to see how she gets on.

    (Edited by SwallowCottage at 6:40 pm on Nov. 6, 2006)

    #30295
    wana
    Member
    • Total Posts 9

    You’ll get to see how your antepost bets stands on Sunday with a bit of luck..<br>Arcalis is topweight in the Greatwood hurdle,ground should be in his favour,<br>there are some decent animals in,but you’d be suprised if he didn’t go close.<br>JH Johnson horses are in great form,Arcalis hosed home last year on his first run and as trend followers may know having topweight or a big weight in the greatwood wouldn’t put you off,they have a great record..<br>Don’t think he’ll win come March,but if he goes close this Sunday,he will be half those odds and he would be a great trade…<br>Good Luck

    #30296
    Cav
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4812

    Considering Fair Along only got beaten 5 lengths in the Triumph Hurdle by Detroit City I’ve had a few quid quid on him at 360/1 for the Champion Hurdle. He’s only 4 years old and made an encouraging reappearance at Cheltenham a few weeks ago.  Just a fun bet but might be a big price if he runs in the race next March.

    #30297
    GI MAC
    Member
    • Total Posts 13

    The Irish certainly hold all the good cards, Fair along would have to be the Joker in the pack :biggrin:

    #30298
    davidbrady
    Member
    • Total Posts 3901

    Having disappointed in last years Stayers, I hope connections of Ambobo will see sense and run him in the Champion this season.

    #30299
    johnjdonoghue
    Member
    • Total Posts 994

    Detroit City hasn’t a hope in the Champion Hurdle, he has not got the cruising speed, definite stayers candidate all the same.

    JohnJ

    #30300
    seabird
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2924

    jjd, I tend to agree that Detroit City hasn’t got the pace for the Champion Hurdle but I felt that way before he won the Triumph.

    Colin

    #30301
    SwallowCottage
    Member
    • Total Posts 1008

    Don’t agree that Detroit City has not got a hope. Broke the course record when he won the Triumph hurdle last march and is presently in good form.  Bookies make him second  favorite for the Champion.

    #30302
    davidjohnson
    Member
    • Total Posts 4491

    I think that the problem with Detroit City is that he races lazily rather than needing further. Looking back at his races, he’s been showing the same style of racing at 12f on the flat around the tight all-weather tracks as he has over jumps and in the 18f Ces.

    People are talking about Desert Quest and Noble Request being lively Champion Hurdle outsiders but Detroit City would be better than the pair of them on the clock judged by Triumph and County Hurdle times.

    I’m not suggesting he’s any great value at 10’s for the Champion but I wouldn’t be in any hurry to lay him. Looking forward to seeing him return on Sunday and I think he’ll run a pretty big race in the Greatwood, even if saddled with top weight.

    #30303
    GI MAC
    Member
    • Total Posts 13

    Detroit City certainly divides opinion, if he does step up from winning the Triumph he’ll be some horse, for sure. 10/1 is no price.

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