Dewhurst 2016

[stevecaution]

I was quite surprised to see early betting for the Dewhurst Stakes, considering that the race is in October.

It’s no surprise to see Caravaggio as favourite for this and if the race were tomorrow he would be odds on in my opinion.

Five firms offer odds and the best prices are as follows:-

Caravaggio 6/4
Churchill 4/1
Mehmas 16/1
Boynton 16/1
Seven Heavens 20/1
South Seas 25/1

Of course others may emerge between now and the day of the race.

Boynton looks to have appeal at 16/1 each-way. He has won at 7F and showed grit in doing so. Caravaggio would be a shoo-in at 6F but what if it is soft ground at Newmarket and 7F to cover? 6/4 doesn’t leave much wriggle room.

Churchill is a horse for the future but the form of his last race will not be enough to do the job, he needs to improve and while it is almost certain he will, should he really be a quarter of the odds of a horse who has a stone lead for now on the ratings and who is far from exposed himself?

South Seas may come into it on soft ground after an 8l win on that surface on his debut.

Seven Heavens is a Frankel colt who may appear in the Richmond Stakes at Goodwood and he could be anything.

Mehmas is one I would rule out. Caravaggio clearly holds him and the Hannon horse is a bit lacking in physical scope. He also has to prove himself at 7F.

Boynton looks the value at 16/1 for intrepid punters.

You can bet places 1-2-3 despite only six currently quoted.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[Nathan Hughes]

I think your right regard the value at this stage Steve
I’d be surprised if Mehmas were to run in this.
He has an entry over in Ireland in the Vincent O’Brien National Stakes in which Toormore won as a two year old over 7 furlongs but I’d expect him to go Middle Park if anywhere.
Hannon views him as a two year old and 6f seems to suit well, if he’s not being aimed at the Guineas dont see the point in stepping up in trip although he does tend to travel well enough in races. South Seas was due to run in the race that Boynton won the day but was a non runner, nothing wrong with the horse as he won today but I dont see him as being good enough at the top level unless he gets a fair bit of cut but even then I would expect him to find a few still too good.
War Decree was backed off the boards as if defeat was out of the question and on a line through Cunco who was said to have had his going and went to post much better he managed better than Churchill to see off Cunco much easier which at this stage would put Boynton right there as I expect Churchill will improve more as a three year old, looked very green.

Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026

[thejudge1]

Agree with Boynton. Looks a tough type and related to some big winners.

[goreisking]

Simple race, Carvaggio won’t run in it so likely Churchill will. Churchill will win it easily but no surprise if neither turn up.

[stevecaution]

I would expect one of them to turn up and there is no reason why Caravaggio won’t go.

People said last season that Air Force Blue wouldn’t show but I felt he would and got involved on him ante-post, with Emotionless looking a bad favourite at the time in my opinion.

I think it would be foolish to leave Caravaggio untested at 7f this year. They surely need to work out whether or not he is purely a sprinter, or has a hope of getting a mile.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[goreisking]

Caravaggio is an out and out sprinter. Built like a sprinter and bred to be nothing but one. I hope they don’t piss about with him.

[Author]

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