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Of all the favourites running at the Cheltenham festival, which do you confidentally think will get sunk? For me it is Black Jack Ketchum. Perhaps we have yet to see the best of him, yet perhaps we have already seen the best of him. The going is likely to be quite testing, and as its stamina may not be copper bottomed I am happy to take it on. I’d like to take Kauto Star on, but it is the class horse in the race and I think it will win barring incident.
Anyone fancy taking on Denman? Detroit City? Fair Along – haven’t seen anyone wanting to take that on yet.
I think Fair Along is pretty vulnerable. His three wins over fences have come in 4, 5 and 6-runner fields and whilst his jumping has been very good to date, there has to be a question as to how it will stand up in a bigger field at a faster pace where he is likely to get taken on for the lead. He also has plenty of experience for a 5yo and it’s worth noting that his allowance continues to diminish. He was getting 12lb from Natal and Penzance in November but will receive just 5 lb at the Festival. A quick glance at the entries suggests he could have a fair bit of opposition up front with Lennon, Buena Vista, Pablo de Charmil, Tidal Fury, Gemini Lucy and Blueberry Boy all having shown their pereference for racing prominently of late.
He’s also pretty small and lacks scope for fences, is also Flat bred and we all know that only the genius that is Martin Pipe wins Arkles’s with that type.
(Edited by davidjohnson at 9:20 am on Mar. 1, 2007)
Looking at BJK’s run again last night, he looks the one, especially if the ground has any give. More i think about it, more it looks like stamina
Aran Concerto maybe too. Not that hes done anything wrong but at the moment 2/1 is a bit short for a horse that is largely reputation from a stable thats not in form and underperforms at cheltenham too
definatly black jack. but will be looking to get denman and that aran thing beaten too!
I am a fan of Fair Along and as the opposition in the Arkle does not look that strong I think he can still lead all the way (as he almost did in the even more competitive Triumph last year).
As for Denman, what has he got to beat? Solzen looks bound to go for Arkle or (better) the Ryanair.
I share the general doubts about BJK (will he even turn up?)
PS – Detroit City a shoe-in. Irish rivals all elderly and in decline except, possibly, Jazz Messenger.
I will be taking on anything that starts at less than 3/1.
Since 1999, 64 horses have started at the Festival at odds of 11/4 or less. They show a level stakes loss of  9.17. And they are
Year Horse SP Result<br>1999 CARDINAL HILL 11/4 Lost<br>1999 ISTABRAQ 4/9 Won<br>1999 BARTON 2/1 Won<br>1999 ALEXANDER BANQUET 11/4 Lost<br>1999 NICK DUNDEE 5/4 Lost<br>1999 MAJADOU 7/4 Won<br>1999 BILIVERDIN 11/4 Lost<br>1999 KATARINO 11/4 Won<br>1999 LE COUDRAY 2/1 Lost<br>1999 DEANO’S BEENO 2/1 Lost<br>1999 FLORIDA PEARL 5/2 Lost<br>1999 DR LEUNT 11/4 Lost<br>2000 YOULNEVERWALKALONE 5/4 Lost<br>2000 DECOUPAGE 7/4 Lost<br>2000 ISTABRAQ 8/15 Won<br>2000 MONSIGNOR 5/4 Won<br>2000 FLAGSHIP UBERALLES 11/10 Lost<br>2000 INCA 2/1 Lost<br>2000 LADY REBECCA 5/2 Lost<br>2000 SEE MORE BUSINESS 9/4 Lost<br>2000 CASTLE SWEEP 7/4 Lost<br>2002 LIKE-A-BUTTERFLY 7/4 Won<br>2002 SEEBALD 5/2 Lost<br>2002 ISTABRAQ 2/1 Lost<br>2002 FLAGSHIP UBERALLES 7/4 Won<br>2002 LADY CRICKET 5/2 Lost<br>2002 RHINESTONE COWBOY 5/2 Lost<br>2002 BARACOUDA 13/8 Won<br>2002 BANNOW BAY 2/1 Lost<br>2002 HORUS 11/4 Lost<br>2002 ROYAL AUCLAIR 2/1 Won<br>2002 POLAR RED 2/1 Lost<br>2003 AZERTYUIOP 5/4 Won<br>2003 RHINESTONE COWBOY 5/2 Lost<br>2003 PIZARRO 2/1 Lost<br>2003 KEEN LEADER 9/4 Lost<br>2003 MOSCOW FLYER 7/4 Won<br>2003 STORMEZ 7/4 Lost<br>2003 LIBERMAN 2/1 Won<br>2003 BARACOUDA 9/4 Won<br>2003 LIMESTONE LAD 9/4 Lost<br>2003 BEST MATE 13/8 Won<br>2003 KINGSCLIFF 11/4 Won<br>2003 LA LANDIERE 5/4 Won<br>2004 THISTHATANDTOTHER 5/2 Lost<br>2004 ROOSTER BOOSTER 11/8 Lost<br>2004 INGLIS DREVER 7/4 Lost<br>2004 OUR VIC 11/8 Lost<br>2004 AZERTYUIOP 15/8 Won<br>2004 MOSCOW FLYER 5/6 Lost<br>2004 BARACOUDA 8/11 Lost<br>2004 BEST MATE 8/11 Won<br>2004 IRIS ROYAL 11/4 Lost<br>2004 LA LANDIERE 5/2 Lost<br>2005 MOSCOW FLYER 6/4 Won<br>2005 AZERTYUIOP 2/1 Lost<br>2005 OUR VIC 7/4 Lost<br>2005 BARACOUDA 6/5 Lost<br>2005 BREWSTER 9/4 Lost<br>2006 SWEET WAKE 5/2 Lost<br>2006 DENMAN 11/10 Lost<br>2006 KAUTO STAR 2/1 Lost<br>2006 BLACK JACK KETCHUM 1/1 Won<br>2006 HARBOUR PILOT 11/4 Lost
Hopefully Aran Concerto can buck the trend in the Ballymore Properties Nov Hdl cos I’m on at fancy prices (well 10s anyway!) but I’ll end up laying off at approx 5/2 for a free bet at 15/2.
- Total Posts 170
2003 MOSCOW FLYER 7/4 Won <br>2003 STORMEZ 7/4 Lost <br>2003 LIBERMAN 2/1 Won <br>2003 BARACOUDA 9/4 Won <br>2003 LIMESTONE LAD 9/4 Lost <br>2003 BEST MATE 13/8 Won <br>2003 KINGSCLIFF 11/4 Won <br>2003 LA LANDIERE 5/4 Won
2 of the best days of my life!! Went to Cheltenham on the Wed and roared Moscow Home. I seemed to be the only punter in cheltenham roaring home Young Spartacus at 20/1 and then along with the rest of the stands cheered home Liberman.
Mini bus back to Oxford, stopping at boozers on the way.
Went for the favourites on the Thursday, had to as i loved baracouda and Best mate and had been telling everyone in a drunken state that the la Landiere was the good thing of the festival. That alongside kingscliffe and Palashan at 10’s was one of the most profitable days ever!!
Watched the racing down the local on the Thursday for the last day of the festival as they put on a spread and have a bookies in. With all the favourites winning back-to back, some mad bets were going on, and coming in, they actually ran out of money and had to go and get more.
Sorry to be nostelgic. But any excuse to talk about those days.
As far as this years festival. I would be taking on Aran Concerto.
Fair Along – all valid arguments as to why it could get beat. I think the little horse is classy and IF it jumps as well as it did at the open meeting, they won’t catch it.
Sounds like you had a godd time aftershock!
I just wanted to move our focus on the festival to how we think the races will play out and what horses look vulnerable rather than I have backed horse A at 20/1 and Horse B at 1013/1.
Seeing Moscow Flyer in his pomp must of been good though.
Quote: from properfences on 10:53 am on Mar. 1, 2007[br]As for Denman, what has he got to beat?
Cailin Alainn
Quote: from properfences on 10:53 am on Mar. 1, 2007[br]PS – Detroit City a shoe-in. Irish rivals all elderly and in decline except, possibly, Jazz Messenger.<br>
WTF!
- Total Posts 170
Sorry there – got a bit carried away with my story…
I would say if you are looking for a race to lay horses in then it has to be the triumph. There are a lot of fancied horses in this one, and though looking at the form Lounas has to be the one to beat, I would think coming around that bend there will be 6/8 horses in a pack.
I would say, IF (and its a big IF) mountain jumps that last within 2 lengths of the leader – it will win. Though in all honesty, looking at his debut in greater depth, I think its jumping will not be expeirenced/ good enough. Katchit, has done nothing wrong allseason. Only lost once to Degas Art, who is enother decent one. Punjabi was very impressive at the weekend. <br>The list of horses with a chance is longer then any other race at the festival. And there is always a few horses, towards the bottom of the betting who will run big on the day (ala, Made in Japan).
Its a horror story to back in and yet i always do each year.
Though Detroit actually got me of trouble last year… :biggrin:
Hi DB!
Haven’t seen Cailin, but not generally impressed with the Irish novice chasers. She might stay on for a place.
Also, by referring to Jazz, I was suggesting that there might just be some improvement to come there. Don’t believe for a minute that he can win but, equally, can’t believe that Hardy, Inca and Mac’s aren’t on the downgrade.
Personally i’ll be backing Fair Along. Last years triumph is obviously rock solid form, he jumps well, travels, stays and is proven at cheltenham.. Peronally I think he’s one of the better bets. I’ll be having a saver on buena vista as well.. Pipe seems very keen on this in the weekender.
Denman, I don’t think i’d oppose but I don’t think i’ll back him either..
I think Well Chief may be the one to take on. We don’t know how close VPU would have got last time and for me Newmill is once again being underrated.. I hope (speaking from my pocket) that he turns Well chief over. <br>
I’d quite readily take on Detroit City at 2/1 or thereabouts, he is a Champion in the making but not this year for me, I have a funny feeling he’ll make mistakes at crucial times in the race and the opposition whilst exposed have been there and done it all before. I have Detroit to be beaten by at least 4 lengths. If I had to nail one down to win it would be Brave Inca.
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