- This topic has 231 replies, 37 voices, and was last updated 11 years, 12 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
The pattern race rating of the Champion Stakes since 2000 are;
2000 124.25
2001 116.75
2002 118.75
2003 118.00
2004 121.50
2005 121.25
2006 121.75
2007 120.50
2008 121.50
2009 121.25
2010 121.00
2011 125.50These being a mean figure of the first 4 home each year. This gives a median rating of 121.250 which places the Champion Stakes as the 5th best race in the UK in terms of rating over standard.
The 4 races above it are in order; The Dewhurst, The King George, The Prince of Wales and The International.
Though 12 years is quite a small sample, the median of a mean figure gives a more accurate average figure, otherwise the QEII and Derby would also rate above the Champion.
Brigadier,
I’ve looked back at the Timeform Annual ("Racehorses Of ….") ratings of all winners. It’s possible some of those ratings weren’t put up in the Champion, but should be fairly accurate. My collection goes back to 1984. So from 1984 to the last Newmarket Champion edition is 27 years. Best to divide in to 3 periods of 9 years. Have also added the 3 lbs allowance to fillies.It is obviously possible the first period between 1984 and 1992 (inclusive) was unusual, it would be nice to know the figures from 1975 to 1983, but…
1984 to 1992 had an average of 131.77.
1993 to 2001 had an average of 128.66.
2002 to 2010 an average of 128.0.In my opinion since 1998 (inclusive) Alborada’s first win, the average standard had slipped, with (judged by Timeform Annual ratings) Kalanisi, Pride and New Approach exceptions.
The over all quality of last year’s race and the winner’s rating of 133, and Frankel running this year together with last year’s winner is encouraging.
Its always nice to see some stats however I get the feeling you are using them in a way that supports your opinion.
I say that because the ratings you quote show a drop of 3 and a drop of 0.66 over 3 nine year periods. Also Alborada was rated 118 when winning in 1998 and 121 when winning in 1999. As for the exceptions you make of Kalanisi, Pride and New Approach you could say exactly the same about CDA and Frankel (I hope I haven’t jinxed him) so you’d need to take them out of the equation and wait for the next however many runnings to see what the stats show.
Whichever way you look at the "stats" Brigadier, shows a "downgrade" around 1998, after that downgrade it’s been roughly the same level since (has not recovered). So I can’t see how you can say I am "using them (the stats)
in a way
that supports your opinion". I’m not distorting the stats, they just do "support my opinion" full stop. Of course it could be a coincidence, I’d like to see the Timeform ratings of those winners prior to 1983 to be more certain. Anyone with Timeform Racehorses Of …. for 1983 back – might be able to work out the average winners rating of 1983 to 1975 and may be also 1974 to 1966.
There will always be "exceptions" in any race Brihgadier. Yes, the two runnings of the Ascot Champion Stakes could also be "exceptions"/coincidence (this year, if Frankel wins will certainly be an exception), but as I said, it is "encouraging". Particularly with not only the winner’s quality last year, but also the 5 who followed Cirrus Des Aigles home.
Value Is EverythingWhichever way you look at the "stats" Brigadier, shows a "downgrade" around 1998, after that downgrade it’s been roughly the same level since (has not recovered). So I can’t see how you can say I am "using them (the stats)
in a way
that supports your opinion". I’m not distorting the stats, they just do "support my opinion" full stop. Of course it could be a coincidence, I’d like to see the Timeform ratings of those winners prior to 1983 to be more certain. Anyone with Timeform Racehorses Of …. for 1983 back – might be able to work out the average winners rating of 1983 to 1975 and may be also 1974 to 1966.
There will always be "exceptions" in any race Brihgadier. Yes, the two runnings of the Ascot Champion Stakes could also be "exceptions"/coincidence (this year, if Frankel wins will certainly be an exception), but as I said, it is "encouraging". Particularly with not only the winner’s quality last year, but also the 5 who followed Cirrus Des Aigles home.
Well my reading of them doesn’t say they support your opinion full stop. They suggest there appears to be no conclusive evidence to support your opinion and nor does Eclipse First’s above post on the pattern race rating for the race.
I’ll be more than happy to see the Champion Stakes ratings improve but do remember it is based on the horses that are around to run in it which vary year on year. You’d therefore need to compare it to other G1s to come to any conclusion as to whether the standard of the horses winning and being placed in it has declined in comparison to other similar G1s.
Brigadier,
My "evidence", although not conclusive, suggests the downgrade happened prior to the year 2000. Eclipse and indeed your own evidence only starts in 2000. So there is nothing in Eclipse First’s post that contradicts my evidence.Value Is EverythingGinger, if you want a more accurate assessment of the quality of the Champion Stakes over the given timeframe you have alluded to, then taking the TF ratings of the first 4 home for each year should give you a more worthwhile answer. Bearing in mind that any fillies would need the fillies allowance added to their rating. As it is the end of year rating rather than pre-race or race-achieved figure that is used in assessment, the Annual rating would suffice.
Brigadier,
My "evidence", although not conclusive, suggests the downgrade happened prior to the year 2000. Eclipse and indeed your own evidence only starts in 2000. So there is nothing in Eclipse First’s post that contradicts my evidence.Ginger, actually I added Alborada for 1999 (121) and 98 (118). If you want to provide evidence for your opinion you’d need ratings for the periods you mentioned previously. Anyway I’m glad you have revised your opinion from the stats support it
full stop
to being not conclusive.
As it is the end of year rating rather than pre-race or race-achieved figure that is used in assessment, the Annual rating would suffice.
I agree though finding ratings for a timeframe so long ago is not easy. I only used the rating the winner had going into the race as imo it better reflected the class of horse the race was attracting. For instance David Junior may be viewed as an inferior winner in 2005 on a rating of 115 going into the race yet the following season, in which he won the Eclipse, he was rated 123.
The three that followed him home were Pride, Maraahel and Oratorio. The fact he was 25/1 shows that the depth in that race was well up to standard.
Interesting column by Tom Segal in this week’s Weekender. He thinks it is inevitable that The Champion Stakes will become the premier end of season race. Also says that no one who saw the Arc would have wanted Frankel to run in that race. Worth a read whatever your opinion.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Time and money will tell re the Champion possibly ursurping the Arc. I’m not sure how seeing the Arc was an issue but the ground certainly may have been for Frankel.
Does this mean that Mr Segal would advocate withdrawing Frankel from the Champion Stakes if it came up very soft. The Champion will only become what the BHA want it to be if the course can consistently provide raceable going.
Does this mean that Mr Segal would advocate withdrawing Frankel from the Champion Stakes if it came up very soft. The Champion will only become what the BHA want it to be if the course can consistently provide raceable going.
Probably not as 10f on soft should be ok. 12f on it might not. However it came up heavy then I am sure they will give it some thought.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
What has and what always will shoot the Champion Stakes down in flames is it’s a 10 furlong race and how many times have we heard this year true champions win at 12 furlongs?
I doubt if Sir Henry would have hesitated for a minute running Frankel over 12 furlongs after York had there been a suitable race but it’s a know fact he is not a supporter of running horses in the Arc and he is in poor health so home was always going to be fav.. There’s always a chance he would have got bogged down in the ground and lost and been beaten, that’s the last thing he needed. Let’s get real though….Anyone who thinks there’s a horse anywhere in the world that would beat Frankel over 12 furlongs on decent ground on a decent course like York for instance, where bad luck doesn’t come into it, is mentally impaired as far as I’m concerned. The horse is at least 10 lbs better than any other horse on the planet.
As I pointed out already look at the past results this isn’t something that’s even debatable. No trainer who has won the likes of the King George and the Derby is going to send a top class
12 furlong horses
to Ascot unless he has a very good reason. He’d have to be totally mad to throw away a chance like that to put his stud value through the roof. Even Aiden knowing in his heart of hearts Camelot most likely wouldn’t win sent him despite the egg on the face.
Frankel’s cant go any higher as he’s already the highest rated horse of all time and had nothing to gain by going to France. He shouldn’t even be part of this debate.
What has and what always will shoot the Champion Stakes down in flames is it’s a 10 furlong race and how many times have we heard this year true champions win at 12 furlongs?
I doubt if Sir Henry would have hesitated for a minute running Frankel over 12 furlongs after York had there been a suitable race but it’s a know fact he is not a supporter of running horses in the Arc and he is in poor health so home was always going to be fav.. There’s always a chance he would have got bogged down in the ground and lost and been beaten, that’s the last thing he needed. Let’s get real though….Anyone who thinks there’s a horse anywhere in the world that would beat Frankel over 12 furlongs on decent ground on a decent course like York for instance, where bad luck doesn’t come into it, is mentally impaired as far as I’m concerned. The horse is at least 10 lbs better than any other horse on the planet.
As I pointed out already look at the past results this isn’t something that’s even debatable. No trainer who has won the likes of the King George and the Derby is going to send a top class
12 furlong horses
to Ascot unless he has a very good reason. He’d have to be totally mad to throw away a chance like that to put his stud value through the roof. Even Aiden knowing in his heart of hearts Camelot most likely wouldn’t win sent him despite the egg on the face.
Frankel’s cant go any higher as he’s already the highest rated horse of all time and had nothing to gain by going to France. He shouldn’t even be part of this debate.
We’ll never know if Frankel is the best horse over 12f and saying he is doesn’t prove it. In retrospect the King George, which I always thought he should have run in as opposed to the Arc, was the race that would have best suited him and proved it one way or the other.
No trainer who has won the likes of the King George and the Derby is going to send a top class
12 furlong horses
to Ascot unless he has a very good reason. He’d have to be totally mad to throw away a chance like that to put his stud value through the roof. Even Aiden knowing in his heart of hearts Camelot most likely wouldn’t win sent him despite the egg on the face.
What is John Gosden’s very good reason then do you think?
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.