May 7, 2007 at 17:13 #1606aidanldrebinMember
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He is a son of Grand Lodge running for Geoff Wragg running in the Chester Vase on Thursday. Pehaps I am biased as I am a big follower of Wragg’s but he has shown in recent years that he doesn’t mess around at the meeting i.e Dragon Dancer second in the Vase last year, Asian Heights, Hidden Hope, Island House, The Whistling Teal, Lochbuie etc. over the years.
I think 250/1 would look a very stupid price if he were to run a good race. I was on Dragon Dancer last season at 200/1 e/w and was rewarded.
Also look out for Heron Bay on Thursday also as he will win. He was very green on his debut, but in true Wragg fashion ran on late. Also Ivy Creek should win the Huxley Stakes on Wednesday. I spoke to Steve Drowne at the Cheltenham Festival and he confirmed what I thought. They (Wragg and Drowne) think he could be a potential Group 1 horse and he has also shown he can handle the course and should have won the Dee Stakes last season but for the lack of a gap and the winner got away. Last thing to mention is that the stable are clicking into form and also The Whistling Teal could finish off a very good week for him.May 7, 2007 at 17:30 #57737dave jayMember
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Good luck Aidan .. !!May 7, 2007 at 17:48 #57739LetsGetRacingMember
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Obviously you’re a big fan of Geoff Wragg’s, Aidan, but there is clearly more than a little bias in your assessment of his horse’s chances :biggrin:
I’d be very surprised if Ivy Creek turned out to be a Group 1 horse (sticking my neck out a bit now, having already said Aces Four will never be good enough for the Gold Cup) and I’d be absolutely stunned if The Carlton Cannes won the Chester Vase. Dragon Dancer did run well in the race last year but he already had decent form in the book, in particular a clear second to Hala Bek.
(Edited by LetsGetRacing at 6:49 pm on May 7, 2007)May 7, 2007 at 17:59 #57740aidanldrebinMember
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You are right I am being biased but may I just say the jockey said he had the potential so I think if Steve Drowne is telling me that then I will take note.
Of The Carlton Cannes won’t win the Derby and also take your point about last seasons Newbury form with Hala Bek but look at his last run at Newmarket. He finished just in front of Arabian Gulf who went on to win on his reappearance this year. Of course I except in a maiden but it is a little interesting fact. To be honest I would just love a Wragg win!!!May 7, 2007 at 19:38 #57742insomniacParticipant
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Posted by me October 5th 2006:-
n years gone by I used to spend hours analysing the big stable entries for the following seasons Epsom classics. In conjunction with Horses in Training, I would guesstimate how many of a yards 2-y-o’s were likely to get One and a half mile at three and then calculate what percentage were entered in the Oaks and Derby. From those large stables with the smallest percentage, I would then follow at three those unraced at two. Didn’t keep a detailed log (but probably lost money ) but the method threw up some good winners (notably User Friendly. )<br>In those days trainers who seemed able to identify their unraced juveniles class level best were (not in any order) Michael Jarvis, Peter Walwyn, Clive Brittain (yes- honestly!) and Geoff Wragg.<br>I never bought Horses in Training this year, so don’t know how many 2-y-o’s Geoff Wragg has care of now. Can anyone enlighten me?<br>Geoff Wragg seems particulary frugal when it comes to paying the initial entry fee for the Epsom classics. I noticed that he has two entries in next years Derby. One has run this year already (and got stuffed – so make of that what you will), the other, The Carlton Cannes by Grand Lodge is entered for a maiden at Leicester on the 10th. This is usually a decent maiden with many of the top yards represented. Wragg doesn’t rush his charges – however old they are – so it’s fair to say this won’t be the real deal first time out. But he knows the time of day and does have the occasional debut 2-y-o winner. This horse is owned by Jeff Pearce who didn’t stump up the entry money for Asian Heights to run in the Derby at the initial entry stage although he did after he won the Predominate Stakes. From that you can conclude a couple of opposing views.<br>i) They weren’t that smart as assessing Asian Height’s merit or<br>b) They (Wragg and Pearce) are really frugal when it comes to the grander entries. (They did however cough up for Dragon Dancer – so weren’t far out there.)<br>Based on all the above, The Carlton Cannes is my horse to follow for 2007 (and possibly at Leicester on the 10th Oct.)<br>Does anyone else analyse race entries for any particular yard or owner (Flat or NH). If so why and what results have you achieved? Or is it just another pie-in-the-sky approach? <br>
<br>Sadly, The Carlton Cannes has hardly set the turf alight since I posted that, but, as has been said, Wragg doesn’t rush ’em. He also has a soft spot for Chester .
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