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Interesting explanation for the improvement in form of Overstep yesterday – apparently there wasn’t one!
Hamilton Park, 2 July 2013
3.00, second race
The Stewards considered the apparent improvement in form of the winner, OVERSTEP, ridden by Joe Fanning and trained by Mark Johnston, compared with its previous run at Haydock Park on 22 June 2013, where the colt finished 5th out of 6, beaten approximately 13 ½ lengths. They received a report from the trainer stating that he could not say that there had been an improvement in form as it was a small field and the favourite may have ran below his form.
That’s an interesting interpretation of events. I imagine Braveheart is the sort of man who asserts "look, everyone’s out of line except my son" at scouting parades and suchlike.
But, maybe he’s onto something. Has anyone tried the Braveheart method of handicapping, where you use his horses as the yardsticks, assume they always run consistently, and rate everything else around them? A novel way of viewing the world for sure, but could it be the correct way?
Could this method of handicapping hold the keys to the safe? I imagine Royal Ascot form this year is very strong using it and, if it was more generally adopted, York could get a few handicaps upgraded to Group 1s.
His horses are the healthiest in training because he works them thoroughly day in day out. The reason why the form book can be inconsistent is that most of his horses are young, inexperienced and take time to adapt to a fully fledged training program so you’re going to get the tailed offs in between the rallied on gamely’s.
All of threads on Betfair about Mark Johnston recently have been negative, it looks like the virus has spread over to here but unfortunately I hope we see things with more perspective and honesty.
The reason why the form book can be inconsistent is that most of his horses are young, inexperienced and take time to adapt to a fully fledged training program so you’re going to get the tailed offs in between the rallied on gamely’s.
The 19 raced 5 year old Tartan Jura, tailed off last time out, wins today
Overstep
might have looks impressive to the eye, and taking into account my going allowance of
+0.28s/f
(good to firm) he only earned a speed figure of
50
from me which is only average, but will good enough for nurseries
The favourite
Morning Post
ran
25lbs
below his debut speed figure of
64
, mind you that was over 5f
The 19 raced 5 year old Tartan Jura, tailed off last time out, wins today
Tailed off? not sure what race you was watching.
If you showed any distinct signs of racing knowledge then we probably wouldn’t be having this quote on quote conversation because to be quite frank what you’re insinuating is quite disgusting and holds no substance in terms of understanding through the form book or the detailed required experience in handling a horse.
The Betfair forum will be able to provide you with all your fishing needs, plenty of people on there who will support your case but this is a Racing Forum that houses arguably the most knowledgeable constituents on the internet so I’m not sure you’ll be catching anything soon.
I wasn’t watching anything just quoting what it said on the Sportinglife website for his last run so I suggest you take it up with their race reader.
Held up in last trio, weakened 3f out, tailed off opened 11/2
As for what i’m insinuating, the answer is nothing asI don’t have any opinions on his training methods or how he races his horses as I don’t know or care. If I think one of his will win I’ll back it if not I won’t.
I just found it ironic how more or less straight after you gave us your expert insight in to why his horses run like they do, up popped up that winner to make you look like a fool.
Still carry on passing on your racing knowledge if I don’t learn anything I can always have a good laugh.
PS, I don’t use the Betfair Forum so I’ll carry on posting here thanks.
The 19 raced 5 year old Tartan Jura, tailed off last time out, wins today
Tailed off? not sure what race you was watching.
To be fair it was difficult to watch Tartan Jura in the business end of that race, unless you were using a good pair of bins in the stands. He disappeared off the TV screen in the last couple of furlongs and the camera stopped counting them over the line, after a lengthy wait, before he had crossed it.
I think that would constitute a good working definition of tailed off. Do you have a different understanding of the term to the rest of us?
I wasn’t watching anything just quoting what it said on the Sportinglife website for his last run so I suggest you take it up with their race reader.
Held up in last trio, weakened 3f out, tailed off opened 11/2
Well it’s a dreadful shame Andrew because I use a more professional service in The Racing Post, so how about you take it up with their race reader?
In rear, driven over 5f out, lost place over 2f out (op 11/2)
Now that this issue has hit a deadlock with you I will move on to more pressing matters from Glen.
I think that would constitute a good working definition of tailed off. Do you have a different understanding of the term to the rest of us?
In all honesty Glenn, I wouldn’t call Tartan Jura’s run "tailed off" even if I had to be remotely pessimistic here.
It’s quite evident that Tartan Jura looked a labored horse on the day which transpired into his racing character particularly in the last half mile when he visibly looked to have trouble breathing.
He’s a horse that lacks gears in the broadest sense whereby a race run 17 seconds outside standard wouldn’t have played into his strengths because he just doesn’t quicken whilst having the trouble of breathing up hill made his chances almost zero.
The horse was beaten nearly 30 lengths in 7th and was 18 lengths behind the horse who finished 6th, not sure what your defintion of tailed off is?
This is an interesting question posed by the instigator of the thread.
The logistics of the Johnston operation are staggering when you look at the number of runners he has all over the country on most days. With that number of horses to train and transport, there is little room for the manipulation some posters here and on Betfair imply.
I think it’s just a matter of training horses in batches and letting them find their races for themselves.
I’m sure his motto (Always Trying) is quite correct, and it is very unlikely that Tartan Jura would be tailed off so he could win a £2000 race at Catterick next time out. The course and conditions were ideal today, and anyway, how many times do jockeys need to be told not to let Joe Fanning get away from them on a front-runner?
As for Overstep, I had a tiny each-way on him just because I was loafing around with the TV on. My reasons, for what they’re worth, was it looked like a dirty day with the ground softening and Overstep had had a couple of races on firm ground when he was outpaced. Uphill at Hamilton in the soft, Fanning out on his own, why shouldn’t he make it awkward for the less experienced two-year-olds?
Johnston’s blunderbuss approach adds hugely to the tapestry of the sport, even if some his results do make me laugh out loud.
But as for the aspersions, he would need ten brains to set up tuppeny-h’apenny coups in an operation of such complexity.
Having said all that, I like to keep an eye on the market with him; some of his employees obviously know which batch is in the mood.Johnston’s blunderbuss approach adds hugely to the tapestry of the sport, even if some his results do make me laugh out loud.
But as for the aspersions, he would need ten brains to set up tuppeny-h’apenny coups in an operation of such complexity.Well Hippo Joe, I couldn’t have written it better myself, you’ve hit the nail on the head.
Mark Johnston, for me, is misunderstood by punters especially those on Betfair who are bemused at the result of some of his horses but lets put things into perspective.
He’s a vet at heart so it’s understandable he likes to take a keen eye on the condition of his horses. What’s clear is his training regime, is the influenced by his veterinary background in what’s more militant philosophy by strength in numbers and lean logistics than analytic forecasting and long-term planning.
The simplistic approach to riding tactics epitomizes his subsidence from race-day analytic’s or other contentious involvements in favour of extreme attention to detail and hard work behind the scenes.
Often punters are mislead due to their analytical approach into studying the racecard but I couldn’t genuinely see Mark Johnston finding that knowledge or approach useful which means there’s a mismatch in view points, whereby a punter may see his "tailed" off horse as a non-trier he would probably see it as one that needs further medical testing.
They are always trying . Apparently.
Horsewithnoname is obviously an avid supporter of this.I think one of the reasons punters liked Sir Henry Cecil’s stable was the runners were fairly consistent,if you priced one of his at 4/1 it would run like a 4/1 shot.With Braveheart you would not know if it should be a 4/6 shot or a 66/1 rag,I do not like races where he has a runner.
If you go to back a certainty always buy a return ticket.
Hey, Horse:
All the Johnston runners today (2 at Haydock, 3 at Newbury and 1 at Epsom) have been backed overnight.
Could be a bonanza – or a blank. (I’ll try a few low-stake doubles and trebles.)
Our contemporaries over at Betfair are turning even more purple with rage. Keep ’em guessing, Mark.
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