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Fondness has just done "bounced".
Pity this "bounce" was not predicted on this thread before hand yeats
"Charlie D[/quote wrote:
Pity this "bounce" was not predicted on this thread before hand yeats
If they knew that before the race Charlie surely they wouldn’t run it
"yeats":887gl6vr wrote:
Pity this "bounce" was not predicted on this thread before hand yeats
If they knew that before the race Charlie surely they wouldn’t run it
Bet they dont run it in another 9 days.
Hi
I note that Zozo in particular is getting confused about the bounce theory- it is about returning after a long layoff usually through injury ( there’s really no other reason) running well then failing reproduce the good run next time.It’s not about fit horses running again within a few days a long time money spinner.In it’s correct definition I think it does exist with a number of possible reasons- form overestimated-trainer misjudging the horse’s ability to recover- horse decides it’s not so good to racing again afterall. It should also be remembered with all the musclar talk horses are not humans they see no reason to push themselves to the nth degree no matter how hard the jockey tries (or doesn’t as the case may be)Hi
I note that Zozo in particular is getting confused about the bounce theory- it is about returning after a long layoff usually through injury ( there’s really no other reason) running well then failing reproduce the good run next time.It’s not about fit horses running again within a few days a long time money spinner.In it’s correct definition I think it does exist with a number of possible reasons- form overestimated-trainer misjudging the horse’s ability to recover- horse decides it’s not so good to racing again afterall. It should also be remembered with all the musclar talk horses are not humans they see no reason to push themselves to the nth degree no matter how hard the jockey tries (or doesn’t as the case may be)Hey cheeky, Im not getting confused. I know the ‘bounce theory’ inside out and I know how to correctly use it, which I do very effectively.
The most successful tipping service of the last 15 years is built around the bounce factor and the man from that organisation personally taught me about the bounce factor and how to apply it to your bets.Zoso bless yeh! Do you ever get the feeling you wish you never started a thread
First of all, let me say I have absolutely no opinion on whether the bounce factor is true or is a complete myth. The main reason why I have no opinion is because like others have said on this thread, it hasn’t been conclusively proved that it does exist – but then again, some horses do put in remarkably poor runs after a great run, following a lay off…..
Anyway Zoso, I think you have put up a great arguement and you have made some very valid points regarding muscles and the comparison to a footballer or a runner etc.
You are absolutely right in what you say. I hadn’t played football for years and two weeks ago I played five-a-side football. I didn’t suffer from aching muscles that night, but I was knackered after about 10 minutes lol. Anyway, the following few days I felt like a cross between John Wayne and Robocop when I walked. If I was asked to play again within those few days (incidentally I wasn’t because of my sh!tness lol) I doubt I would have been able to do so. So in the example you gave, you are absolutely right and it’s difficult to argue otherwise.
However, you mentioned that it’s a medical fact about how the muscles work, and you mention about asking a physio or a doctor and they will tell you the same. Ok, if this is completely true, then why do trainers run their horses so quickly after that re-appearance run? If it is fact that their muscles will be hurting and they won’t be able to perform to the same standard then why are these horses asked to run?
Granted, horses can’t tell us how they are feeling – but in this day and age, trainers and horse vets will have all the medical tools they require to assess the well being of a horses muscles after the re-appearance run. So if it shows that the muscles are not upto another run yet, then why do they allow the horses to run, resulting in a poor performance and everyone screaming "It was the bounce factor".
I’m not sure about the bounce factor as mentioned earlier – but if there is such a thing, I have reservations about it being completely down to the muscles not performing as they did seven days ago.
Mike
Interesting, Zoso.
I’m afraid I have a couple of questions still.
If, this bounce theory is something to do with the two races following a lay-off, but is NOTHING to do with a return from injury or sickness ( as you said), does that mean that the lay-off was just a seasonal thing or what?
There again, maybe you have a different definition than the one being used here?
Second question is
what’s the name of this most successful tipping set-up you mention, please?My own view on horse performance is purely an opinion: I believe most horses under-perform after a good performance. I think this applies to other activity too – including human. Check some of today’s winning jockeys; what did they do in their next race?
I have no proof, of course, other than being let down many times by NTO not being a patch on LTO.
Btw, I’m glad to hear that your punting is going well.
- Total Posts 17716
Fondness has just done "bounced".
Yes, on faster ground, in a faster run race, and against higher class horses.
Another bounce for the bounce theory?Fondness has just done "bounced".
Yes, on faster ground, in a faster run race, and against higher class horses.
Another bounce for the bounce theory?Yes, obviously running so quickly after the last run had no bearing on the poor performance
Fondness has just done "bounced".
Yes, on faster ground, in a faster run race, and against higher class horses.
Another bounce for the bounce theory?This is a problem the "bounce theory " has imo
To show Fondness "bounced" and to give the theory any merit, you need the same scenario that applied on it’s last run, say, same course, going, weight carried, opposition and so on
Charlie
On that basis,I have to conclude that you pay very little to any patterns that occur in a horse’s form in the UK, except possibly on the all-weather.
If that’s the cae then everyone sticks to their own methods as it suits. However to decry ‘spotting a pattern’ on the basis of needing absolute proof seems harsh.
Do you need proof that you exist to go about your daily business? I ssume that you consider you exist, but can we ask for proof?
Rob
I wouldn’t have said Fondness got beaten due to the bounce factor personally. It was off track for about 4 1/2 months before its first run back. I would be very wary of assuming a horse will bounce after such a short break (although it may well do). The longer they are off track the more likely they are to bounce, 12 months + is ideal followed with a quick 2nd run (within 10 or so days). I think I know why Fondness was beaten and I wouldnt put it down to the bounce factor.
Ref the guy who asked who I considered to be the UKs top tipping service over the last 5 years. I was talking about Isiris (im sure many services have beaten there figures, but I would say they were the most successful over a long period of time and Im pretty sure they would have more members than anyone else).
Ref- why do trainers run them quickly if bounce exists – Just because someone is a trainer does not make them intelligent. As many people will not believe in the bounce factor including very intelligent and respected journalists etc, many trainers will also not believe it exists.or truly understand it.
Rob
you can conclude whatever you like about what i do, but to show this theory has merit you need to produce evidence and so far i’ve not seen a theorist produce any,
a test or even better several tests like i put forward in my last post would
Statistics show that it is not uncommon for a horse’s level of performance to drop on their second run after a layoff, but it doesn’t have anything to do with a bounce factor, a horse being fresh and free-moving, or the fact that it is difficult to put up two decent efforts on the spin.
After any sort of lengthy absence (the nature of which is immaterial), and despite the best preparation, the body simply isn’t well enough conditioned to perform at an appreciable level on two occasions in quick succession. As such any poor run following a horse’s reappearance comes only as a result of the muscles having not recovered sufficiently from their previous exertions to be able to function efficiently.
It’s important to note that fitness is not the same as conditioning. Athletes are, generally, extremely fit and even after a period of inactivity would muller 99% of the population in their chosen discipline. But whilst some training will allow them to peak in their first run following such a period, a lack of competitive action will mean their bodies can’t recover quickly enough to peak again straight away. A continued regime of training and competition will then better condition them, improving energy conversion and oxygen supplies to the muscles, and hence allowing them to maintain a level of form indicative of their ability.
So, technically, horses don’t bounce, they’re just being returned to the track too soon after their reappearance.
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