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I’ve closed my Summer Flat Season thread (with a reasonable profit) but there are still one or two big races left on The Flat that I usually have a small bet on, The Irish November Handicap, The Cesarewitch , I’ll be looking for a good hurdler in each of these, The Arc, of course, The Melbourne Cup, if Dermot Weld has a runner, and maybe one of The Breeder’s Cup races, I had my first ever bet in USA last year on Zenyatta and I can’t see any reason not to back her again this year. If anything else appeals I may another race or two and I’ll open this new thread to cover these Autumn races.
One I’ve never bet in before is tonight’s Woodbine Mile where Dermot Weld runs FAMOUS NAME . I’ve done very well with The Rosewall horses this year but Famous Name cost me last time out, He never got in the race and IMO it was one of those rare occasions when Pat Smullen got his tactics all wrong. He seemed to concentrate on Rip Van Winkle while Cape Blanco stole an unassailable lead. I’d expect him to lie much close to the pace tonight. There’s no real lines to compare the value of Irish V. North America form and we don’t know how he’ll travel over so £12.50 EW will suffice
Factual error poined out by thehorsemouth Corrected
Will watch with interest CS, Pat Smullen was on ATR earlier and said that the ground was quick enough for Famous Name last time and 1m2f around Leopardstown is as far as he wants. One small correction though, Famous Name has raced outside Ireland previously, when 2nd to Vison D’Etat from a horrific draw in France.
Will watch with interest CS, Pat Smullen was on ATR earlier and said that the ground was quick enough for Famous Name last time and 1m2f around Leopardstown is as far as he wants. One small correction though, Famous Name has raced outside Ireland previously, when 2nd to Vison D’Etat from a horrific draw in France.
How could I forget, The French Derby!!! I backed him that day too
The key to The Irish Cesarewitch lies in the Killarney photo finish defeat of SWIFTMARC by ENDLESS INTRIGUE. The jockey on the runner up lost her whip that today but the Dessie Hughes horse has a generous 7lbs pull in the weights for his ½ length defeat. Endless Intrigue, on the other hand has more scope for improvement so I don’t expect much more than a fag paper between the two again and, at the odds, it’s worth a little EW on each, especially as it’s a race I particularly like and one I’ve done well on in the past.
SWIFTMARC £6.50 ew @ 14-1 (bog)
ENDLESS INTRIGUE £18 EW @ 11-2 (bog)
50p Rev F’CastAutumn Flat Races Thread -£25
Really like the look of Swiftmarc’s chances myself! 16/1 represents serious value, and one of the owners sons is a very good friend of mine so there’ll be celebrations all round should he come in
I thought Endless Intrigue would have beaten Swiftmarc quite comfortably that day, but he seemed to struggle a little on the ground. The ground should be even softer today, so that would have to be a concern for Endless Intrigue imo. Dunno if I’d say Endless Intrigue has more scope for improvement either tbh, Galway was more than likely his Gold Cup.
Shamiran will be thereabouts if he reproduces his previous effort here ahead of Swiftmarc and behind Admiral Barry, but he’s quite inconsistent which would be a worry. These would be my two against the field.
Really like the look of Swiftmarc’s chances myself! 16/1 represents serious value, and one of the owners sons is a very good friend of mine so there’ll be celebrations all round should he come in
I thought Endless Intrigue would have beaten Swiftmarc quite comfortably that day, but he seemed to struggle a little on the ground. The ground should be even softer today, so that would have to be a concern for Endless Intrigue imo. Dunno if I’d say Endless Intrigue has more scope for improvement either tbh, Galway was more than likely his Gold Cup.
Shamiran will be thereabouts if he reproduces his previous effort here ahead of Swiftmarc and behind Admiral Barry, but he’s quite inconsistent which would be a worry. These would be my two against the field.
I wouldn’t be keen on backing a maiden in race like his who has had 23 previous runs under his belt, seven seconds and a 7 lb claimer on board.
I’d be really happy to see Endless Intrigue out of the race as I slightly prefer Swiftmarc at the weights but I’m very loathe to desert a Weld runner with his profile, it’s typical of a big staying race winner from Rosewall.
Witout him in the race I’d be tempted to have a plunge on Swiftmarc, I might go in again closer to the rce.Now that Profound Beauty misses The Arc a lot of interest in the race has gone for me, not that she’d have acted on the prevailing ground anyway.
I’ve had a good look through the remaining runners and settled for two, I’ve even broken my no AP rule and had just had a £5 EW on Youmzain who will be fine on the ground and is bound to start shorter than 14-1 and will surely make the frame.
I’ve had the same on the relatively unexposed Flying Cross at 66-1.
He impressed me in The Irish Leger and, although I can’t be sure he’ll run of course, he’s worth a little bet especially if Seamie Heffernan rides and tries to make it all. Of the seven Ballydoyle entries, he’ll be the best suited to a slog in the (likely)mud.EDIT : Found an odd £2.07 in my betfair a/c, took the 120-1 Flying Cross for that, now I’ve found another £4.95 don’t know where it’s coming from
but I’ve taken 23-1 a place for the £4.95
but I’ve taken 23-1 a place for the £4.95- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.