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The Autumn Stakes is a bit tricky to call because some of the entries are also in the Zetland Stakes the same day. The Zetland is a Listed race over 1M 2F, which is plenty far enough for 2YO horses. Won by Coronet last year it is a race I don’t dabble in often because of the stamina test it is and there is no similar contest to compare from earlier in the season.
I am focusing on the Autumn Stakes instead.
Delano Roosevelt has generally been favourite for the Autumn Stakes but is favourite for the Zetland as well. We will find his target out tomorrow and I feel it is worth taking one that is sure to run in the Autumn Stakes and snag some potential value before tomorrow.
I was on Ghaiyyath last time and he landed a double for me, coming home easily to win by 5 lengths. He obviously has a chance of building on that and has already won at the mile trip. He had been beaten when fancied but only 3rd on debut and he is an expensive horse with fancy entries and scope. 5/1 was tempting for me.
Gosden has Purser and Westerland in the entries. Purser took advantage of the drop in class when clouting trees last time and Westerland has been generally limited looking after a good few goes at it.
O’Brien has plenty of options. Delano Roosevelt, Kew Gardens and Family Tree perhaps look his best chances in some respects for the race won by Godolphin’s Best Solution last year.
I know Family Tree had some fans here but his maiden win has worked out awfully so far and at the time it seemed he simply outstayed the prominent runners on the heavy ground that day.
Not sure how many Aidan will run of his entries but I felt a value bet on a well bred horse with plenty potential was Wafy at 14/1. I had pencilled him in as the forecast with a Gosden hotpot last time but he did it too well and beat the favourite as well. By Dubawi out of Guineas winner Ghanaati, Wafy came on from a modest debut on soft to pick up nicely and score readily on his next start. He floored an odds-on shot that day and there looked to be no fluke.
A well made sort who seems sure to progress I expect Wafy to outrun his odds of 14/1. On balance the odds of 14/1 were better value than Ghaiyyath at 5/1, given that both colts hold identical RPR’s of 90 at the moment and I feel they have equal amounts of scope, both look colts for the future and both are by Dubawi.
Wafy 14/1 is my value pick and Ghaiyyath next best.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Purser at 7/1
Like you say posibillity a few of these will be in the zetland including delano roosevelt, if that happens then youd assume purser will be half the price he is not being entered himself
Not sure if he would have gotten much closer to masar than he did but i do feel hes better than a 100 horse
Purser at 7/1
Like you say posibillity a few of these will be in the zetland including delano roosevelt, if that happens then youd assume purser will be half the price he is not being entered himself
Not sure if he would have gotten much closer to masar than he did but i do feel hes better than a 100 horse
No jockey on Purser yet, so I just wonder if he’s a certain starter?
Jim Crowley is booked for Wafy and another factor in my selection.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Purser is indeed jocked up now with frankie and at 4/1, waafy also halved in price
No delano roosevelt which is what i had said could happen above
Ill probably have a little more on purser at 4/1 now
This race is very simple to work out, Ghayyaith wins.
Move on, move on. Nothing to see here
Only just studied up this race and I’m definitely with Steve on this one but think like judge think Ghaiyyath will take all the beating.
Charlie Hills is very positive about Wafy’s chances and I love him because he’s by 1000 Guineas winner Ghaanati. I’ve also been following her 3yo Afaak this year who almost won the Silver Cambridgeshire a couple of weeks back.
I backed Ghaiyyath last time out and got a really good look at him in the pre parade ring and believe me he is the finished article and he cruised into the lead at the finish and pulled away 5 lengths ahead of the field, so Wafy is going to have to be on his best form to beat him.
Unless there are any negatives on the day (and Ghaiyyath does get a touch warmed up although I don’t think that is a concern) I will probably end up betting on them both and doing a reverse forecast for the few pennies it will pay.
Ghaiyyath -Win
Wafy – Each wayGood luck .. Jac
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Blimey that is four of us on WAFY now including Mrsraymo!! It is going to have to be some horse to win with that handicap!! LOL
But Jac is in top form so maybe ……I’m surprised there’s not a lot of love for Zabriskie here. HEs bred in the purple and I felt showed a real gutsy attitude to win last time on ground much worse than what he should encounter today. He’s Moore’s choice and I feel he could make up into a real top notcher. 15/2 was good enough for me with a saver on Ghaiyyeth at 5/2.
I have flipped (not for the first time) and followed in the master on Wafy
The Ghaanti link was too powerful for me, one of my favourite horses
FFS.
Has anyone got a rope handy 🙁
Ouch judge, that was a sore one
Sadly, I picked the wrong one of my two picks, beguiled by the 14/1 price.
Both Wafy and Purser were always working harder to keep in touch than you would want to see. They never looked like winning.
Kicking my own arse a bit after that, being on Ghaiyyath last time,
I think Ghaiyyath has answered the critics who slated him after his first start.
I felt Purser was skinny enough myself. He was the form pick so far but a few lightly raced ones were lurking.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
FFS.
Has anyone got a rope handy 🙁
Ouch judge, that was a sore one 🙁
Should always go with your original instincts.
I’m being overanalysing all year.
Not the worst result having e/w at 7/1 on purser, caught out wide but wouldnt have made a difference in reality as ghaiyyath was just too good
Well done backers of the winner hes a smart horse
FFS.
Has anyone got a rope handy 🙁
Unlucky there judge
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