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Hi All,
Thought you guys (and gals) would be getting a little more moist over the impending battle of the old enemies.
I think England are the superior team and represent an excellent bet. Sadly, the 9/4 has dissipated over the last few days and now 7/4 is the best price. That is STILL good value!!!
I make England 4/5 with the Aussies 13/8.
The recent form of the Aussies (thrashed by India and Sri Lanka) is not the only reason. Man for man – England are a more impressive outfit. The Aussie attack is not very threatening and they lack a class spinner. Their batting does not go all the way down, and if Ponting, Clarke and Watson do not score big they could struggle to make totals of 300 plus. Conversely, England’s batting is the strongest since the era of Lamb, Gatting and Gower (Oh, and Beefy
) et al in the 1980’s.For me, Eoin Morgan is world class, and I know this may sound like rabid hyperbole, but he manipulates the ball in a way that the legend Tendulkar does. Not as good yet
, but I do think there are similarities in the way the ball seems to be caressed effortlessly by their bats.England’s recent form has been good, and yes, this is a tougher challenge, but they are even stronger than they were in 2007 when regaining the Ashes at home. They have genuine strength in depth and a winning mentality and ruthlessness that English cricket lacked for sooooo long. Strauss is not a brilliant captain, but he won’t have to be and he has the full backing of his troops. We also arguably possess the best current spinner in the world in Swanage.
My picks for the Ashes player Unlucky 15:
Eng Top Bat: K Pietersen 4/1 in a few places.
Eng Top Bowler: Stuart Broad 7/2.
Aus Top Bat: M. Clarke 5/1.
Aus Top Bowler: B Hilfenhaus 7/2.So, c’mon, what does TRF cricket cognoscenti think?
Zip
A very good write up there Zippy. I would agree with all what you have said however I reckon the Aussies are a cunning breed, I should know as my Granddad come from down under and I cant see them going down without one hell of a fight. England’s main bowling weapon is Swann but what are the pitches going to be like? Cant see them producing turning wickets so it could imo come down to who’s got the better batsmen or fast bowlers, which for my money evens things out a tad..
Charles Darwin to conquer the World
Hi Nathan,
Tis only you and I that are interested in the cricket, what’s wrong with peeps!!
Well, if you agree with what I’ve written I must be doing all right
The commentators on the telly for the Australia A game (last night) think it will be very close. It could be…I really do think England will come out on top as they are superior and they are hungry for it. Aussies are seriously vulnerable at the mo.
So what bets would you advise for top bats/bowlers?
Swanage is a fair price!
Zip
Zippy,
You can add me to the list of interested parties – to the extent that staying up all night to watch day one will take priority over going to Taunton to watch a horse I own running on Thursday.
My view on how it will pan out is that both teams are better with bat than ball and high scoring draws could be the outcome of two or three tests. Both teams will play six batsmen and with Prior and Broad at 7 and 8 on one side and Haddin and Johnson on the other, tiring four man attacks with an old ball are going to have problems taking ten wickets. Not difficult to imagine 150-5 after 45 overs turning into 300-6 by the time the new ball is available.
So, as with most series, I reckon it will be the occasional one session batting collapse that will decide the outcome. On recent form, Australia are marginally more prone to that than England, but not enough to tempt me to bet on the series result.
Looking at the spreads, I’d buy Mitchell Johnson series runs at 170 and Stuart Broad at 175 – and perhaps sell Katich at 380, as I reckon he’s been worked out by the bowlers and could struggle.
Interesting that SI have suspended the market on series runs for Michael Clarke, so perhaps his injury problems mean he’ll miss Brisbane.
Let’s hope it lives to the hype.
AP
Good to have a proper cricket fan on board, AP.
Or is that on Broad?
I am a big fan of his batting too and I believe he’ll hit many more tons for England. In fact, I think he may even hit 10 in his career (wonder what odds I’d get for that?).
I think Eng are the stronger batting team so I don’t know if that will benefit him or not. Will he come in without enough time to accrue a big score or will he come in with carte blanche and thwack tired bowlers around the park for easy 50’s?
Johnson has a lot of talent with the bat – he’s a brute….I’m not sure about buying his runs but I can see your logic. He’ll get plenty of time at the crease IMHO – but will anyone stay with him so he can build an innings rather than blast?
Zip
If Usman Kawaja plays instead of Clarke, and Bollinger gets the nod over Siddle, thats 7 of 11 left handers in the Aussie team. That really is remarkable and though initially i thought the price for Swann as top wicket taker was ridiculous i now can’t contemplate any other result.
Alot of writers seem to be overplaying the importance of the 1st test. For me, if England lose the first test their will be room (and value) in them winning the series, however should the Aussies lose i really can’t see them coming back.
Well Roland, I don’t think the first test is the be all and end all, either.
However, it would be a psychological boost for us not to lose it. I know our record is poor at the venue but I see no reason why we cannot win. Screw stats, we’re a better team!
It surely can’t begin as badly as last time…"And Harmison comes in now to Langer for the first ball of the series…"
Zip
looks like they’ll just be 5 lefties. my remarks obviously put the mockers on for Usman K, and Dougie B. Time to open the pro-plus.
Doherty in for Hauritz looks a punt by, er, Punter.
To be honest, I don’t think Ponting has ever trusted Hauritz; the fields he set him recently v India (and v NZ earlier) were so defensive. Compare that to Strauss’s aggressive fields for Swann (and Strauss I think is generally quite conservative).
With Clarke’s back problems and Hussey in really poor form I feel there’s potential for the Aussies to fall apart here. Wishful thinking!
When I was a kid staying up all night to listen to a scratchy TMS was no problem; now I have HD and super slo-mo age and infirmity forces me to hit the sack!!
Mike
Not long now folks!
Had a real hard day at work today getting in front for tomorrow so I can have a late one tonight and watch a bit and basically toss it off and have a steady one in the morning!
Done an unlucky 15 of the 4 main areas…
Top wickets (Eng) Swann 6/5
Top bat (Eng) Cook 13/2
Top wickets (Aus) Hilfenhaus 11/4
Top bat (Aus) Hussey 11/2
I can have a late one tonight and watch a bit and basically toss it off
Come again?…..
Charles Darwin to conquer the World
Hiya peeps!!
Good to see someone put a thread up for what promises to be a tremendous series!!
On paper I just cannot see Australia being able to take 20 wickets on the generally batsmen-friendly wickets Down-under. Unless Johnson has an unbelievable series I just can’t see Australia beating us!! Siddle and Hilfenhaus are too inconsistent, Bollinger hardly set the world alight in county cricket, and the addition of this Doherty kid as their spinner smacks desperation in my view. However, I feel it would be foolish to write the likes of Hussey off – though his form has been poor, class is permanent and he’s reknowned for his gritty determination, bit like Collingwood is for us.
For the 3 lions, I reckon we need Cook and Pietersen to have a big series. Both are on a bit of an iffy run at test level, though they’ve both had a couple of knocks in the warm ups. The fact that we bat down to 9 as well will definetely stand us in good stead when the top 4 fail to fire. Bell, Prior, Broad, Swann must be the best 6,7,8,9 in world test match cricket??
Am going for the following little wagers to have a financial interest as well as a sporting one!!
Top Eng Series Bat – Trott @ 4/1
Top Eng Series Bowl – Swann @ 11/10 £0.88 – LUCKY 15 &
Top Aus Series Bat – Ponting @ 7/2 £2 ACCA
Top Aus Series Bowl – Johnson @ 9/4England to win 2-1 – £6 @ 8/1
COME ON ENGLAND!!
Ok Nathan I see your point…I’ll be taking it easy tomorrow morning at work…is that better!
A few funny sledges here to get you in the mood if anyone is bored like me and waiting around for the action to start!
Mixed start for the skipper then
wins the toss then goes first over for a quacker!Nearly as bad a start as Harmison last tour! (was it last tour?)
We’re not out of it yet, folks!
I think England can bowl the Aussies out for a modest total. Anderson could be the key 1st innings and Swanage 2nd.
Eng were a bit disappointing with the bat. When Bellend and Cook were there I thought we’d get at least 350.
Enjoyed reading all your posts and seeing some new faces on here
I also enjoy looking at your miserable unlucky 15’s!!!
Still, one of you had Cook as top bat so good start
Zippy
Ps,
Gotta give Siddle his due, bloody good effort for the hat-trick (he’s notthat
good, is he?)
One English batsmen played a blinder yesterday…..
http://www.somersetcountycc.premiumtv.co.uk/page/News/Newsdetail/0,,11333~2230402,00.html
Charles Darwin to conquer the World
) et al in the 1980’s.
, but I do think there are similarities in the way the ball seems to be caressed effortlessly by their bats.
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