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Mediocre race, never won after Christmas, enigmatic
6-1 in some places, which is just daft
I’m on Mengli Khan (20/1 e/w) and Kalashnikov (8/1 win) antepost for this.
Of the three market principles, it’s Lalors debut that impressed me most. He travelled like a machine against a good field and then quickened impressively. I can’t get involved as a single at 5/1 but he’s a fair price for multiples id say.
Didn’t go to Plumpton today but so happy to see Kalashnikov hack up. I’ve been such a huge fan of this horse since day one.
I’ve been backing him for the Arkle since September and am on at 10s, 8s and 7s. I’m more than happy to go in again at 5/1.
Is he a deserving favourite though? Hmmm…
Hard to say. If Lalor goes to the grade 1 at Sandown and wins he will be clear and deserved favourite because Kalashnikov is winning races he really should be winning. Well done getting bigger prices. Wouldn’t touch at 4/1
I don’t know what the form of today’s race is worth, if anything. I can say that Kalashnikov couldn’t have won it more easily though. You can get really near the winner at Plumpton and I went to have a look at him coming back. We hear jockeys saying “he doesn’t know he’s had a race” etc all the time but I’ve never really seen a horse that genuinely looked and behaved as if he hadn’t. They couldn’t even get him to take a drink. 4-1 is far too short though.
God he jumped well didn’t he? Looks an absolute picture
Fwiw Timeform have Knocknannus as leading novice chaser thus far – the owner is the FD here at 32Red, and an intended runner – 25s more than fair!
Kalashnikov put in another decent performance but still not as visually impressive as Lalor and well below the form of that Cheltenham contest
Lalor was like watching Vautour
That was much better by Defi Du Seuil today. He jumped much better, much lower over his fences. I’m a bit concerned that he might be rerouted to the JLT but pleased having secured 33-1.
A hell of a performance by Top of the Game today to come back for a 20 length deficit as a result of his antics at the start. He looks a real chaser too.
I could post this in all 3 novice chase threads. I’m not convinced that last years novice hurdlers were a very good bunch. Summerville boy, samcro, black op, kilbricken storm, blow by blow have all been relatively disappointing so far this season and therefore I’d be inclined to look for horses for all novice chase divisions who have spent an extra season hurdling, such ad topofthegame, cilaos emery, voix du reve. In fairness tp Kalasnikov and Santini and Mengli Khan, they seem to have taken well to chasing, but its hard to know the value of the form. Looking at the market for the Arkle at the moment I am very underwhelmed.
I agree, Wexfordman, the jury is definitely out. However, I wonder if the difference between last year’s bad weather and this year’s better weather might also be a factor. I don’t think soft ground this year is the same as last year’s soft ground. Much of the analysis seems to suggest whilst the ground is soft on top, underneath it’s a different story. Perhaps last year’s horses went better on soft / heavy ground?
I think it’s reasonable to assume Samcro is a good horse, they’ve just been running him in the wrong races. I also think Blow By Blow is a very lazy horse who comes into his own in the spring so it might be best to disregard his below par performances
I might have another nibble at Lalor when the prices are pushed out after that.
Poor ride, poor ground, one run. Line through it and trust the horse.
Can understand letting the front runners go a little way in front – two in the race wanting the lead and taking each other on. I reckon Johnson knew from an early stage Lalor wasn’t going with his usual fluency. The horse coped very well with a strong pace/speed of good ground at Cheltenham and won a Grade 1 Novice Hurdle on similarly soft going at Aintree… So ground/speed should not have been a problem.
imo Most likely reasons for a poor display are:Needs a left-handed track (although has won right-handed by far his best runs have been at Cheltenham and Aintree).
Or
Race came too soon, needing longer to get over an excellent time performance (harder race than it looked) at Cheltenham?Dynamite Dollars may have improved today, but the Cheltenham form still looks best to me.
Value Is EverythingI’m with Ginge on Lalor He’s a good deal better than that and should bounce back in the Arkle.
There has to be a question mark over Lalor after that. I certainly couldn’t recommend anyone backing him now at only 8/1.
I don’t consider the left hand/right hand track a factor but think he could need to be fresher and on better ground, got lost behind Kalashnikov in the Schweppes on bad ground. Don’t see how Johnson’s ride could be criticised, he wasn’t going well enough to close when he needed to and probably did well to finish 3rd.
With Doncaster and Cheltenham lined up should have all factors in his favour to bounce back, although there must be a possibility Johnson might not be available for Doncaster.
PS The winner of the Arkle is my avatar
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