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  • #3568
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    Slight variation on last year’s approach which selected runner-up and subsequent King George winner Kicking King (although Cormack nailed the 1-2).

    This year, I’ll run through 8 factors which seem key to success (based on horses which have either won or finished second in the race in the last 12 runnings). Each horse scores one point if they meet the criteria, and then a final adjustment is made for the horses’ ages.

    Factor 1 : The horse has won 2 or 3 chases (11 of 12 winners met this)

    Factor 2 : The horse has had up to 5 chase starts (12 of 12 winners, and 8 runners up)

    Factor 3 : The horse finished 1st or 2nd on its last completed chase start (23 of the 24)

    Factor 4 : The horse finished no worse than 3rd on either of its last two completed chase starts (24 of 24, if you include Well Chief who had only 1 previous chase start)

    Factor 5 : The horse ran last time out either in a Class A or B chase, or won a lower-graded contest (all 24)

    Factor 6 : The horse last ran after 2nd December but before 23rd February (all 24 again)

    Factor 7 : The horse had won a Class A or B (or Graded) NH race (19 of 24)

    Factor 8 : The horse had won at least 4 NH races (flat, hurdles and chases) previously (23 of 24)

    Finally, based on age analysis, which I won’t repeat from last year, but is still on this area of the forum, horses score the following additional points…

    5yo/6yo = +1.5<br>7yo = +1<br>8yo = +0.5

    In order, tomorrow’s runners score as follows…

    9pts > WATSON LAKE, MARIAH ROLLINS

    8.5pts > ULAAN BATAAR, WAR OF ATTRITION

    7.5pts > MY WILL

    7pts > Contraband, Limerick Lad, Ned Kelly, Town Crier

    6.5pts > River City, Sir Oj, Supreme Developer, The Last Cast

    6pts > Ashley Brook, Kadount

    5.5pts > Made In Japan, Mambo Des Mottes, Mondul

    4pts > Steel Band

    <br>Summary<br>Based on this, I wouldn’t look to single out a single selection, but would have a little to win on the two top-rated horses, and 6 exactas with those two over each other and the next two.

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