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I’m gutted that SP won’t be running in the Arc.
I was looking forward to him being backed in so I could lay the ever loving crap out of him …
Bugger!
The champion stakes is a better race for him anyway. It’s often quite a weak race.
Steve
LOL:biggrin:
Believe me, Steve, the Ante-Post bet would have only been the start of my wagers….
"I started backing him in Mid-September, you see. A little bit here, a little bit there. In order to remain incognito, I cycled round betting shops in North London wearing overalls, a pink clown wig and a Kirk Douglas mask.  I hoovered all the fourteens, then the twelves and when they went tens, I hoovered that too, rubbing my hand’s and thinking of Paris"
How come all these famous punters have the luck! *moan moan*. I could have been a contender etc etc ad nauseam.
He’ll be no price in the Champion, (at least not the insulting 14/1 Laddies were showing).
Let’s have a virtual Arc based on the running of Sixties Icon? If he finishes, say, within three lengths of Scirroco, then we can say SP would have won, yes?:biggrin:
Yeah the Champion Stakes has become one of the weakest Group 1s of the season in the last couple of years. Last year’s race was very poor, although won by a good horse.
2004 was marred by Mister Monet’s death in-race, although still not a brilliant renewal. And take a look at 2003! Really not a very good race at all.
I can’t see anything to challenge Sir Percy, but I will definitely lay him if he runs. Olympian Odyssey, Killybegs, Aussie Rules could all post an upset, and others such as Pride could have a swift reappearance after the Arc.
Also interesting to see if Alexander Goldrun and Mandesha could also run.
So for me, it has turned from an awful race into a very good one injust a couple of sentences! :biggrin:
Yeah the Champion Stakes has become one of the weakest Group 1s of the season in the last couple of years.
There’s been absolutely nothing wrong with the quality of the fields on paper for the last three years, it’s just that a lot of the class horses have been over the top by the time the race came around, resulting in biggish-priced winners and placed horses.<br>
Let’s have a virtual Arc based on the running of Sixties Icon? If he finishes, say, within three lengths of Scirroco, then we can say SP would have won, yes?
I don’t think so.
For a start, Sixties Icon’s going to stay the trip. Would SP have gotten home in a fast run 12f G1?
We don’t know.
If SP actually runs again, we might have a chance to see how he’ll do in a properly run race against proper g1 opposition.
Steve
Quote: from stevedvg on 12:05 pm on Sep. 26, 2006[br]Let’s have a virtual Arc based on the running of Sixties Icon? If he finishes, say, within three lengths of Scirroco, then we can say SP would have won, yes?
I don’t think so.
For a start, Sixties Icon’s going to stay the trip. Would SP have gotten home in a fast run 12f G1?
We don’t know.
If SP actually runs again, we might have a chance to see how he’ll do in a properly run race against proper g1 opposition.
Steve ÂÂÂ
as apposed to improper group 1 oppositon he has beaten already?? Was the guineas and last years Dewhurst really that bad??
SHL
I think people need to start taking a reality check regarding Sir Percy.Saying he could win the Champion Stakes without being 100% is arrogant.He has yet to beat an older horse on the racecourse -never mind Group 1 older horses.
Reading this thread over again I’m beginning, despite the withdrawal of Sir Percy, to get really excited about the race.
I watched the Leger last night and, you know what, I don’t think Sixties Icon is a no-hoper on Sunday if the race is run at a solid pace.
I agree Cormack, I can’t seeing him winning it but as SP’s not running now i’ll backing SI for a place I think depending on the odds available on BF. Most of my dosh will be on DI now though following SP’s withdrawal
Looking forward to it myself. Im convinced Hurricane wins it again. Will I get 3s or greater on the day I wonder??
as apposed to improper group 1 oppositon he has beaten already?? Was the guineas and last years Dewhurst really that bad??
The guineas: finished 2nd in a one horse race. It’s the sort of race where the places really don’t count for much.
Dewhurst: thought he was lucky with the running of the race (or, more specifically the run HN got).
I’ve no reason to believe that SP is better than Motivator over either 10 or 12f.
Motivator never won another race after the Derby. Will SP?
Steve
I completely agree with you Steve. SP was 14/1 for the arc and in no way overpriced. He won a muddling derby. Let’s not forget that Motivator was 5/2 fav for the arc and ran a very creditable race. He was a superior horse imo.
Quote: from stevedvg on 2:02 pm on Sep. 26, 2006[br]as apposed to improper group 1 oppositon he has beaten already?? Was the guineas and last years Dewhurst really that bad??
The guineas: finished 2nd in a one horse race. It’s the sort of race where the places really don’t count for much.
Dewhurst: thought he was lucky with the running of the race (or, more specifically the run HN got).
I’ve no reason to believe that SP is better than Motivator over either 10 or 12f.
Motivator never won another race after the Derby. Will SP?
Steve<br>
Im not nescessarily disagreeing with you about the Motivator aspect but other parts of the argument are very flawed. Firstly, of course the finishing order of the Guineas mattered…why wouldnt it. Are you telling me it makes no different who finished second or who finished last. Surely his run in the guineas would be seen as a decent run and a good trial for the Derby could it not?? Very similar to Generous in my opinion…he was only fourth wasnt he.
And as for the Dewhurst….well lets just say he gets beaten by HN…so what?? Was it then a bad race and he a bad horse.<br>Im not sure SP is any superstar and experience has thought me that at this stage, its best to hold fire with any definite critism.
You seem to think that he is Group 2 at best and possibly only group 3. ONe othe question…and I asked others this….
How sure and why are you so sure that he wouldnt stay 12 furlongs in a more pacey race?
As Ive said before I think he would find many of the older brigade too good for him in the arc but to me thats something of a hunch because its very hard to criticise him based on the evidence we do have of him.<br>
SHL
Depends on the ground..If it goes softer HR and Shirocco will surely harden in the betting given their respective records on that surface. If it’s good or better DI will shorten and you’ll definitely get your 3’s
other parts of the argument are very flawed. Firstly, of course the finishing order of the Guineas mattered…why wouldnt it.
Here’s why I think it doesn’t really matter:
When a horse "destroys" the field the way GW did in the Guineas, what tends to happen is that the horses that challenged the winner get "burned out" from that challenge and drop back through the field and finish well behind.
And the horses that fill the places are often the horses that never put in a challenge to the winner and are able to pass the beaten challengers simply because they’ve been ridden to use their energy more evenly throughout the race.
For that reason, a horse finishing a well beaten second in a race like that often hasn’t achieved much.
Of course, you might think this is all rubbish or "flawed", but it’s my opinion on races such as these.
As for this years guineas, I think SP’s position was primarily down to the fact that most of his opposition were either poor quaility, were unfit or don’t really stay the distance.
I certainly wouldn’t put him down as a serious G1 performer just on the basis of that race. <br> <br>Are you telling me it makes no different who finished second or who finished last.
Not exactly.
It a horse put in a serious challenge when the race got going and was able to continue into 2nd place, I’d be fairly impressed.
Im not sure SP is any superstar and experience has thought me that at this stage, its best to hold fire with any definite critism.
Where’s my "definite criticism"?
I’ve been saying that, IMO, the horse still needs to prove himself.
The dewhurst was a questionable result, IMO.<br>The second in the guineas didn’t mean much, IMO.<br>And the Derby form is completely unreliable, again, IMO.
So, what does that leave me with? Not much to judge the horse.
Now, the horse has a big reputation if this forum is anything to go by. And, if he had run in the Arc, I’m sure he’d be quite a short price (probably 4th favourite).
And, IMO, that would have been a massive invitation to lay him.
If he ever runs again, he’ll have the chance to put up the form that equates to a proper G1 winner.
Let’s see what happens.
You seem to think that he is Group 2 at best and possibly only group 3.
Again, I never said that. The point I’ve been making for the last few months is that, IMO, he hasnt proven himself to be of the quality normally required to win a competitive G1.<br> <br>How sure and why are you so sure that he wouldnt stay 12 furlongs in a more pacey race?
"Stay 12f" is a pretty vague notion.
I’m confident that he could be "ridden to stay the trip" in a true run 12f G1.
However, whether he could last the distance while being kept in contention and have enough in the tank to put in a challenge at the end is another question.
And, of course, there’s the question of whether he’d even have the ability to put in challenge even if he had the stamina.
So, it might be a case that he’d simply have to use up too much effort to stay in contention in an Arc and that he’d not get home. But it would be a case of lack of cruising speed rather than lack of stamina.
But, to answer the question, running at his own level (whatever that happens to be), I’d be inclined to think that he’d find 10f his best distance.
Steve
Your argument is impeccable, Steve and I respect your points.
In response, I could argue that SP was making a fight of it in the Guineas racing on much slower ground, or that HN would have been beaten nine times out of ten in the Dewhurst. But I’ve said this stuff before.
Or that if you ignore the two embarrassment runners and the three fancied runners injured in the Derby, five out of the remaining nine beaten horses to run since have won or been placed in nine Group races and one Listed event.
One could argue that the 2006 Derby is a  much better vintage than many Derbys including Erhaab’s, Shaamit’s and definitely Motivator’s. Therefore, you can rate the performance higher on form alone.
But looking at the horse itself is what makes me passionate, rather than analytical. Vincent O Brien once looked at Nijinsky and mused on "the look of Eagles", an unrateable, indefinable quality.
Tregoning, who knows about these things, remembers the comment his mentor made about Nashwan, "crossing the gallops like a panther".
I don’t profess to know one end of a horse from another, but SP’s races tell me that he has the Heart of a Lion. And that’s worth a few pounds in my book.
And I will go to my grave believing that his heart would have carried him very, very close in the Arc on Sunday.
Opinions huh! Like my AP vouchers, so much fresh air.:biggrin:
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