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It used to be that Friday the 13th was considered unlucky but it’s never been any worse than any other day/date combination for me.
A bit of a treat to see the incumbent St Leger Champion turning up for this one and as the Alleged Stakes is a Group 3 race and we have a Group 1 winner in it, you would think that seeing odds of 6/5 on Capri would have most people pressing the “All In” button.
O’Brien has warned that Capri is going to need this race though and he fields two of his own against the Doncaster winner.
Cliffs Of Moher let me down quite badly once last year and that was enough to file him under the avoid tab in my diary. I had a suspicion he might earn the moniker “Cliff Horse Moher” and his run of 244678 hardly inspires confidence. I’ll wait to see him regain the winning thread before investing at 3/1.
Yucatan was one of a bunch of Ballydoyle colts who sat in a closely tied list of ratings last season. He finished ahead of Capri in the Derrinstown last spring and just behind Douglas MacArthur in a three-way serviette, rather than blanket, finish. Injury kept him off the track after that 7th May race and it is going to be tough for him after that setback and absence.
Capri had been much further behind Yucatan when 4th in the Ballysax and that meant he had reversed form with Capri twice since finishing second to him in the Beresford as a 2YO, when not disgraced 3/4 of a length behind the odds on favourite. Probably very few who watched that Ballysax would have imagined they had just watched the Irish Derby and Doncaster Leger winner, plus the Melbourne Cup winner that day.
Capri was a flop in the Arc but I felt he had plenty on there and his Irish Derby form never really panned out apart from Cracksman and I am still scratching my head that Cracksman didn’t win Epsom and Irish Derbies in a generally mediocre year.
Capri has to concede 5 lbs and run at 10F this time, both reasons for concern after the trainer’s statement. All the O’Brien horses will probably need the run to varying degrees so who do you pick?
Looking at the opposition Beautiful Morning has won a Yarmouth Listed race and been second in a very weak group 2. Not for me at all. Cannonball needs to up his game, as his previous run was defeat in Listed company behind an 11 times previously raced 4YO maiden Bound.
I have seen a few tipping Cliffs Of Moher here but I’ve generally been disappointed by him, so can’t take 3/1. Capri has a few things going against him on his comeback and will surely have bigger targets to focus on later in the year. I am just a bit wary of how good he might be this year and what sort of trip he might like ultimately.
Not sure I’ll play but at 5/1 Yucatan would be my pick purely because less is required to lay out to win the same money. At his best from last season he would surely be competitive at this trip getting 5 lbs from a horse he finished ahead of twice last season. He’s likely to need the race but so is Capri according to the trainer and Yucatan is less exposed. Cliffs Of Moher is likely to enjoy 10F better than Capri and is enough of a danger to make Capri a lay in these circumstances.
Yucatan 5/1 would be my bet.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
It’s a no bet race for me
Effectively betting on which of the three is the fittest. Complete unknown.
Nice write up Steve, I couldn’t quite squeeze out enough optimism on Yucatan to have a go but if someone put a gun to my head I’d pick him out. Still trading at best price 4/1 with a couple of places.
The Gladness stakes at 315 is one I am also keeping any eye on. Making Light traveled really well last time and was just nudged along for a cosy victory and that was after running loose at the start. Her 3 year old form was decent albeit nothing to shout about but I think we could see dramatic improvement this year.
This will be the race that has to show me how much she has improved from last season so I won’t be clambering on to the 7/4, especially with the NH Racing on offer today.Capri is very weak in places, at this rate he may not go off favourite. There is 2/1 on the board, so, if you had laid him at 6/5, you would be in clover.
Yucatan is generally 7/2 now and Cliffs Of Moher 5/2.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Yucatan weak now. I can’t see why Beautiful Morning is the price she is now.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Never in a million years would this be a betting race for me unless at the course but from a personal point of view I’d like to see Cliffs Of Moher win or if not run a very nice race.
I agree with you there but after running such a cracker in the Derby it just went all wrong for him and he was thrown into all sorts of battles in the Autumn and because of all that I heard loads of abuse being hurled at him and it’s why I’d like to see him prove us all wrong and one day bounce back to that Derby form and win something like a Coronation Cup or a King George – as incredible unlikely as that is looking.
An underwhelming race. Capri probably got away with running well below his best there. Not that the assessors will pay much heed and Cannonball is likely to face a hike.
It ran like a Listed race for me quality wise, with the runner-up and Beautiful Morning not being better than that level in my opinion.
Yucatan never travelled like he was going to be involved and he only managed to pip a badly weakening Cliffs Of Moher for 4th place. i didn’t play on the race myself but favourite backers will no doubt be delighted with the 7/4 SP on Capri and take it as a gift. That doesn’t really tell the full story though. Capri scrambled home a bit there and I thought Cannonball would take him at one stage. It may be harsh but that was Cannonball’s best chance to ever beat Capri in all likelihood and I don’t think the Victoria Cross will be coming his way on today’s showing.
A big, hard road ahead after that effort from Yucatan but the flop of the race was Cliffs Of Moher, who folded like a concertina and had been a bit if a handful before the race. The Cliff Horse Moher tag is still on him for me.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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