- This topic has 26 replies, 10 voices, and was last updated 17 years, 10 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
In the light of this morning’s headline in the Post and the comments of the Irish handicapper extensively quoted therein it seems to me that, on balance, Teofilo may be a horse to oppose this season. He’s good but not as outstanding as comments like "he will be a monster" would suggest.
He’ll certainly always be a false price, and the road to the Classics is littered with the wrecks of once-worshipped two-year-olds.
Two-year-olds are babies and they all develop at different rates. Teofilo was head of the class in primary school, but his trainer’s recommendation and the words ‘Dewhurst winner’ may not count for much in ‘big school’.
He’s a big scopey colt though it’s hard to see him regressing or not improving.. HRE has probably less scope.. When he run on his debut at Leopardstown he looked very well developed already whereas teofilo always looked rangy to me with plenty of growing still to do.. I do think the Derby will prove to be hos race though. I’d be more confident backing him for that.
Quote: from Aragorn on 9:19 am on Jan. 17, 2007[br]He’s a big scopey colt though it’s hard to see him regressing or not improving.. HRE has probably less scope.. When he run on his debut at Leopardstown he looked very well developed already whereas teofilo always looked rangy to me with plenty of growing still to do.. I do think the Derby will prove to be hos race though. I’d be more confident backing him for that.
Completely agree with everything written here. Teofilo was a big rangy sort, to me he was always going to make a better three year old. It was his relaxed temprement that got him to be a good 2yo from day one, IMO. To look at him you wouldn’t think he’d be a 2yo type, but he was so relaxed about everything it made things much easier for him.
This attitude will help a great deal at Epsom too (as long as he gets there), i don’t think his price is great but he may just take a bit of beating.
HRE looked solely like a 2yo to me and i think he will be best at sprint trips this season, i dont think we will see much improvement from him this year.
In the Dewhurst it looked like Teofilo was doing things much easier than HRE, who looked as if he was giving his entire best, maybe he won’t even train on this year.
Teofilo has been a very exciting horse for me, he could just turn out to be a star……… i rarely get excited about horses but this fella is the real deal to me though……….. i just hope the same doesn’t happen to him as it did with the horse i was talking up last year.
RIP Horatio Nelson……….
Referring to Stormonts comments about Holy Roman Empire the following insight from Timeform on the essay about Horatio Nelson might be of relevance
" There is no one with much hope of competing with O’Brien in the best juvenile events for colts – of 51 pattern races open to colts in Ireland since the start of 1999, 4 winners have been trained in Britain, nine by other irish trainers and 38 by O’brien. Intriguingly the subsequent record of the O’Brien trained colts who won pattern races at 2 in ireland is not so good proportionately as that of the top 2yO’s trained by other irish Trainers as O’Brien’s group can boast only 5 Group 1 winners at 3 about the same as the other Irish trainers "
O’Brien gets his top colts out very early as 2yO’s and races them pretty hard in terms of numbers of runs. Whether that is because of the type of horse that is bought for him or whether this plan slightly bottoms them and they are not therefore at their very best as 3yO’s is a matter of opinion but I am in the camp that we have seen the best of HRE. Mind you I have been wrong before and with horses all to often!
Thanks for finding that.
When Aidan does get one that is good at 2 and 3 you can be sure it is out of the ordinary.
I don’t think it is the way he trains, but the horses he gets, like it said in that article…… they are mostly early types of very backward types……. horses that will either be good at 2 OR be good at 3 and upwards……… I do think we have seen the best of HRE.
It was a bit like when David Loder was training the Godolphin 2yo’s, he was told to get them fit enough to win first time out……. now, it is probably one of hardest things to do to get a 2yo to win first time out, especially those that aren’t bred to be ‘early’……… most of those 2yos did nothing at 3 when trained by Godolphin.
Why should we assume that if Teofilo ‘fills out’ he will necessarily be any faster? The ‘filling out’ process may slow him down.
He is a tremendously exciting prospect but almost looked like a three year old when set against his opponents last year. They may catch up over the winter and he may not be as dominant next.
On the other hand, and this is what I dearly hope, he may indeed be a monster. The horse he reminds me most of, and I am sure I’ve seen this comparison elsewhere, is Nijinsky. Let’s hope he is somewhere near as good.
<br>
Quote: from cormack15 on 12:29 pm on Jan. 17, 2007[br]Why should we assume that if Teofilo ‘fills out’ he will necessarily be any faster? The ‘filling out’ process may slow him down.
He is a tremendously exciting prospect but almost looked like a three year old when set against his opponents last year. They may catch up over the winter and he may not be as dominant next.
On the other hand, and this is what I dearly hope, he may indeed be a monster. The horse he reminds me most of, and I am sure I’ve seen this comparison elsewhere, is Nijinsky. Let’s hope he is somewhere near as good.
<br>
He wil be more powerful this year, without a doubt. Although he was big last year he wasn’t that strong looking IMO.
I think he is the sort of horse that whatever he did at 2 would be a bonus for connections and the fact that he did so much as a 2yo suggests he could be a superstar.
Everything about him says 3yo, his pedigree, his relaxed attitude, his size and scope.
Ive got no money riding on him for any race this year (yet) but i just think he could be the horse we have been waiting a while for…….. English Triple Crown maybe
If he wins the 2,000 Guineas and the Derby, there’s one place he definitely won’t be going, and that’s Donny for the St Leger. It would be Irish Champion Stakes and Arc for sure.
Recent Derby winners have felt the commercial pressure to drop back to 10f for breeding purposes. If Teofilo has already won the Guineas before the Derby, his owners won’t have the same considerations to worry about.
I was thinking more of the stigma attached to St Leger winners when commercial breeders select stallions for their mares. A win in the St Leger might close the door to any interest from the US, for instance.
The artificial label ‘Triple Crown winner’ will not, in itself, be a major selling point for breeders. The mile champion of any given year is likely to have a stronger and bigger book of mares than a Derby/St Leger winner.
Your missing my point Lincoln Duncan. Teofilo will already have shown his speed and precocity in winning the Dewhurst and Guineas. He won’t be under commercial pressure to prove himself at shorter than 12f, because he’ll have previously have proved it in the Guineas. If he wins the Guineas and Derby, I think they will be very tempted to go for the Leger.
Fair enough DJ, you may well be right. I would find it hard to pass up a place in history for the Irish Champion Stakes and Arc, and the Bolgers may well be of the same mind. It would certainly be very good for racing if he did try to win a Triple Crown.
My point about US breeders being uninterested in a 1m6f winner, whatever his previous form at 7f-1m, is still valid, however. Speed is the overriding concern, and any stallion with a healthy dose of stamina is treated with suspicion.
I would strongly suggest that the term ‘Triple Crown Winner’ would carry more weight with breeders than the term ‘Champion Miler’.
I don’t share your conviction. Even high-class 1m4f horses fail to attract the same interest at stud as their peers at a mile.
I would rather have a fast horse that stays rather than a fast horse that doesn’t. I can understand he train of thought that you would want a horse that wins at 8, 10 & 12f though. I just think the triple crown is such a rare achievement that it holds a lot weight in the game.
As an aside I thought that Motivator would have done the guineas/derby double had he attempted it but I don’t think he would have won the Leger
(Edited by Aragorn at 2:25 pm on Jan. 17, 2007)
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.