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The Ryanair chase
Without doubt my luckiest race on the calender as in the past 8 years I have made a profit every single year from it.This year is quite simply if
First Lieutenant
runs he wins.If he does run he’s the banker of the week.I have said all year Mouse wont want to run him in it and I still hope he runs in the Gold cup instead.We all know that Team Gigginstown know which race he runs in and market forces would suggest its this,I’m still not sure myself.I’ve backed him at 14’s down on the machine but dont have a penny on the high st!If he doesn’t run I’d love
Albertas Run
to roll back the years and show why loyalty pays,I’ve had a score on at 48’s on him for old timesakes.The horse I think should run in this and nothing else he’s entered for is
Wishfull Thinking
at 40/1 he is twice the price he should be,this fellows never been a 2 miler!
Dangers- ‘Albertas Run’20/1, ‘Wishfull Thinking’40/1
(10/03/13)
Quite simply its a case of will he wont he run! IfFirst Lieutenant
does run he’s my banker of the meeting and having backed him down from 14/1 for this I will be happy to have lost my Gold cup wagers on him…….clocks tickin!
SELECTION- FIRST LIEUTENANT 14’s down
,I have never had so many Ante-Post bets on one horse but this fellow has been my Cheltenham Banker for sometime if he ran in this,he’d have been placed in the Gold Cup for sure but this will do for me.I wont hear of defeat,he’s a certainty!
Albertas Run
has had my support e/w too at 14/1 obviously as he’s a Star and will make them all go!
World hurdle
For the first time in years its wide open and thats why I believe
Get me out of Here
granted good ground wouldn’t disgrace himself,I’ve had a fiver on at 65’s on the machine but would confidently put him up as an e/w player at 20/1.I do believe
Oscar Whiskey
will be the one to beat on the day and I have had a few small wagers on at 10’s on the machine again but nothing on the High st.This race has all the makings of being a cracker,one to savour.I just wish I knew which race GMOOH would go for! Having said that he could go off 10/1 for whatever he runs in so at 20’s now I could back him for both! If ever a horse deserved a big one its him though and I can see JP going this way personally! Money talks and it will with this horse for sure!
Dangers-Wide open race too many!
(6/03/13)
Get me out of here
is definitely the horse for money,granted good ground he’s a serious horse but on Soft wont be winning anything,the weather will influence this fellows chance and the forecast is mixed!!
SELECTIONS- GET ME OUT OF HERE 20/1 and OSCAR WHISKEY 10’s down
, the ground has come right for these 2 old adversarys but when it comes to loyalty it will be GMOOH who I’ll be shouting for,a race to savour!
The Byrne plate
What looks a tricky race on paper looks a shoe in for
Hunt Ball
imo,he’s no Gold cup horse but he’s still improved into a proper Grade 1 horse and this race would suit him perfectly,I’ve nibbled him at 10/1 but nothing serious,I’ll definately get round to it though!
Dangers- ‘Cantlow’ and ‘Carlito Brigante’ hopefully wont run!(9/03/13)
I see another talking horse is all the rage for this in ‘Ballynagour’ butHunt Ball
has been there seen it and done it,we’ll see how far this new boy of the Pipes progresses up the handicap,not as far as my selection I’m sure!
SELECTION- HUNT BALL 10’s down, CANTLOW 8/1 and CALGARY BAY 33/1
,this race has turned into a bit of a conundrum for me as I really wanted just ‘Hunt Ball’ to run but bloody Paul Webbers put the spanner in it by entering one of my festival bankers in it and of course I cant not bet my old pal ‘Calg’.there’s 4 places up for grabs so I’ll take 3 of them!
Kim Muir
Another race I have a record 2nd to none in,having put both
Junior
and
Sunnyhill Boy
up on here for the past 2 years,both at what seems a huge 16/1 compared to their respective SP’s of 3/1 and 6/1 I have to think very carefully about my selection for the hatrick.I have narrowed it down to 2 horses,neither is the fav ‘Cantlow’ though as he doesn’t want an amateur on his back.I shall keep my powder dry for a wee bit longer as I’m still backing both at 20/1!
Dangers- Not ‘Quantitativeeasing’!
I’m just about ready to nail my colours on this one!!
(5/03/12)
My number 1 selection for this race now isAlfie Sherrin
,I can see him being well suited to an Amateur and his Cheltenham form is solid,I give
Harry the Viking
as my danger and I’ve backed both at 20/1.
SELECTION- ALFIE SHERRIN 20’s down
,I’ve fancied this fellow for sometime for this and have been backing him regularly at 20’s down,he’s as confident a selection as my previous 2 winners of the race ‘Junior’ and ‘Sunnyhill boy’ and I expect a victory,
Harry the Viking
is my danger and I’ve also snaffled 20/1 about him too.
Day 4
Triumph hurdle
I have again nailed my colours to one horse and one horse only and I aint swaying from
Rolling star
,he caught my eye at the trials meeting and since then I have had plenty on at 6’s on the machine,its a notoriously difficult race to win but one I like.
Dangers-‘Vasco du Ronceray’25/1 amongst a plenty.
(9/03/13)
I know this ‘Our Conor’ is a bit of a talking horse but I’m not swaying from
Rolling star
in a tricky as usual Triumph.
SELECTION- ROLLING STAR 6’s down
,A one horse book for me here and I wont be backing anything else against this smart young horse.
County hurdle
I was hoping ‘Trifolium’ would run in this as his ‘Supreme’ form would give him a major chance,
Forgotten Voice
on yesterdays form would have to be a player at 14/1 but push come to shove I do like
Cotton Mill
at 10/1 as for a moment I thought he would give MTOY’s a fright at Newbury,he’s not over big though and humping weight around Cheltenham isn’t easy’I have backed nothing thus far! I will nearer the time when the picture clears a bit.
(10/03/13)
Sticking to my guns withCotton Mill
and wont be backing anything else,the 10/1 has all gone and he now trades at 7/1,still generous imo.
SELECTION- COTTON MILL 10/1
I’ve backed nothing else in this wide open as usual event!
Albert Bartlett
Its funny when you watch a horse on TV,you create a picture of them in your mind then when you see them in the flesh that image is either a Positive one or a negative one! I had a slightly negative feeling about
At Fishers Cross
prior to seeing him at the Trials meeting,that image has been blown up into a colourful print since though.This fellow impressed me big time that day,he is a fine stamp of a horse who will make a chaser,I have already enquired into an RSA price for next year,(33/1).I rate him banker material for this race and fear only one other……’Pont Alexandre’!I have had some decent sized bets on him at 6/1 for this but am kicking myself for missing the big boys prices,I got 10’s on the machine to small stakes but thats it,I expect a convincing victory!
Dangers-‘Pont Alexandre’ if he runs.’Coneygree’16/1.
(9/03/13)
I’m sure the ground will be fine forAt Fishers Cross
come friday and if so he is the one to beat,I rate him banker material!
SELECTION- AT FISHERS CROSS 6/1
I still think this fellows a good thing even though my good things keep getting placed only!!
Gold Cup
Another target race of mine and surprise surprise another one I excel at.Last years victory for
Synchronised
goes down as one of my greatest ever,not just because I won a bundle at 20’s down but because I had misjudged him prior to his Lexus victory but redeemed myself with him instantly,a fantastic feeling and one that only anyone who risks their cash Ante-Post will appreciate!
First Lieutenant
carries more money of mine in this years Gold cup than any other horse at Cheltenham.The stats boys are quick to tell me that he cant win as he hasn’t won a race this season,are they the same stats boys who told me ‘Workforce’ couldn’t win the Derby? I know Mouse’s Chestnut can win the Gold cup,I know he can beat ‘Bobs worth’ and I know Davy Russell is dreading the fact he may well run as he’s on SDS.Anyway I have backed this fellow all year at 25/1 down and I’m confident that on the 15th day of March he’ll show why I rate him so highly,we haven’t seen within 10lb what this fellow will do on good ground on a Spring afternoon around Prestbury and thats why I know Mouse will kick doors down to ensure he runs in this.If he doesn’t run I wont lose any sleep as he’ll have won the Ryanair the day before.A horse I believe is an embarrassing price still at 33/1 with the incredibly generous Ladbrokes is
Cape Tribulation
,he is a danger to all and will serve it up late,I’m quite bullish about his place prospects and have had several wagers on at 33/1.If I have to collect place money only on my 2 selections then I hope its
Sir des Champs
that wins,he is the one they all have to beat.
Dangers- Its a Gold Cup so plenty!(8/03/13)
Good to see steady support for
Cape Tribulation
,he’s halved in price since I started backing him.No change there though!
(9/03/13)
We’re down to 12 left in the Gold cup,a small but select field and I’m still as confident ever aboutCape tribulation
at least running a place,if the ground stays soft
First Lieutenant
wont be running but at least he’ll win the Ryanair!
Sunnyhill Boy
is no 40/1 outsider either,I’ve had a tenner on at 65’s but have seen far bigger prices about him being taken.
SELECTION- CAPE TRIBULATION 33/1
I sometimes feel I’m the only one who gives this horse a chance but that wont put me off,I’ve backed this fellow all the way down from 33’s to 14’s and imo he’s still e/w value,incredible price really for a horse who will be delivered late and fast!
Foxhunters
I have supported
Chapoturgeon
again! a bit of a jibber? We’ll see! so long as his jockey realises that giving a fence lead is too much I expect him to avenge his defeat from ‘Salsify’!I have had small stakes at 6’s on the machine and wont be backing anything else unless JP sends one of his Irish invaders over.
Dangers-‘Salsify’
SELECTION- CHAPOTURGEON 5/1
I’ve stuck with this old monkey,whos’ capable given more chance than last year!
Conditionals hurdle
I haven’t got a clue about this one yet but will start looking this week.
(9/03/13)
I’ve been nibbling away onGevrey Chambertin
at 6’s and 7’s this week to small stakes but wont be betting anything else in this.
SELECTION- TONER D’OUDARIES 10/1
This is one I’ve been waiting for and cant oppose him,I’ve had a good saver on ‘Gevrey Chambertin’ though!
Grand Annual
I was lucky I backed
Bellvano
at 26’s on the machine last year on the day of the race,Henderson,JP and Paul Carberry was the only reason I did but it paid off and sometimes you wont decide a bet until the moment the starter lets them go,the same thing will happen this year but at least all the big guns are locked and loaded so I cant change my mind about them.What I will do is Lay every single horse I have backed in running if they touch around Evs,this covers my stake and there’s plenty of them! Virtually every horse I have backed Ante-Post will trade shorter in running but you have to be on the ball to play,if I could pick a horse now who would make an ideal Back to Lay in running it would be
Kid Cassidy
at 14/1,I expect a bold show from him but I’d question his resolution up the hill,
Eastlake
at 20/1 could surprise in this.
Dangers-Hendersons least fancied!
(27/02/13)
Edit- Been looking at this one closely today and as you go through the card you mentally assess each runner with an allocated weight,most are pretty much as the Official Handicapper says but I looked atAlderwood
and said 11-2 to myself and he’s sitting on 10-4!!!! What I like about this fellow is his Grade 1 winning form over a horse I rate highly in ‘Trifolium’……Time to get on at 8/1 methinks as he’s really only got 2 options for Cheltenham and I fancy this!
(9/03/13)
I’m still keen onAlderwood
and have been backing him occassionally for this at 9’s and 8’s,I’ll be backing something else closer to the day too,possibly
Petit Robin
.
SELECTION- ALDERWOOD 9’s down
I like this fellow a lot but would still give a squeak to both ‘Kid Cassidy’ and ‘Petit Robin’.
Gold Cup
A horse I believe is an embarrassing price still at 33/1 with the incredibly generous Ladbrokes is
Cape Tribulation
,he is a danger to all and will serve it up late,I’m quite bullish about his place prospects and have had several wagers on at 33/1.
What a busy morning,the Knights have been out gallivanting and snaffled all of the 33/1 with Ladbrokes,I’ve been saying it for weeks now and they still wouldn’t bring him into line with everyone elses 25/1.Oh no they have only gone and panicked and slashed him from 33’s to 20’s,shortest of them all now!
They never learn and as long as they dont I’ll keep robbing them.Victor Chandler learned very quickly! I see the first 4 in the betting for the Neptune have all been cut across the board tonight,it only confirms that these Bookmakers like to unanimously rob us punters.Makes you wonder how all 4 horses have been backed by every bookmaker all at the same time.Or could it just be greed? Shortening horses for the sake of it only reiterates why Betfair rule the roost.Why anyone would take 7/1 about ‘At fishers Cross’ winning the Neptune when he’s not running in it beggars belief as William Hill wont refund any bets at this stage.He’s trading at 237 on the machine and thats for a reason!
Gord i enjoyed reading all of that i did but a few dangers you missed out.OUR CONOR in the triumph and AUPCHARLIE in the jewson i think the Potts horse wins the jewson
And how you rate horses from the triumph could any of them be a champion hurdle contender this time next year.
Also forget to add that ROAD TO RICHES a danger in Albert Bartlett as well.And it may not win the bumper but CLOWNDAW COURT will turn out to be the best long term prospect potential Gold cup horse.
Darren,this thread is just based around my own personal bets on each individual race,most of which are Ante-Post.Of course the sooner I can form a judgement on a horse the sooner I get the biggest price.A race like the ‘Neptune’ really is wide open and there’s 5 proper Grade 1 horses in it,I’m not one for backing them all as I love to cheer the horse home I have nailed my colours to,generally through watching them develop.My horse in that is
Rule the world
and the horse I’m against is ‘The New One’,the horse I believe is still overpriced is ‘Puffin Billy’ but the horse I’m afraid of most is
Pont Alexandre
,he looks like an Irish banker.Wait till you see this lot in the paddock and you’ll think its anyones race. Cant wait!
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