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"15 Days and 23 hours to go" is exactly how I started last years thread and I’m doing the same now so here we go.
Supreme Nov hurdle,
Its well documented this is one of my favourite races of the year and historically a superb yardstick for future top class winner finding.Like last year there’s only one horse I’ve nailed my colours too and thats My Tent or Yours,like ‘Darlan’I have gone slightly overboard backing this fellow down from an early 20/1 through 16/1 14/1 and 12/1 even 10/1 as I was still convinced he is the Real deal.I am no more confident about this fellows chances as I was ‘Darlans’ last year and miraculously he got beat!This race is a graveyard for short priced favs and I was hoping ‘Jezki’ would go off the jolly but MTOY demolished a bunch of handicappers with such ease every Tom,Dick and Harry has jumped on board and now trades at 13/8.I have laid enough on Betfair to cover my stakes so I’m sitting pretty,I could still lay him for a 4 figure profit but thats not my style,I’ll go into battle all guns blazing with this fellow as he is a proper beast of a horse,one that will make into a super chaser one day too.
Dangers- ‘Jezki’ I have to accept JP didn’t buy this fellow for nothing! ‘Un Atout’ but only on soft ground.8 days to go and everything is where we want to be regarding MTOY,still seeing money for him even at 13/8 and hopefully both ‘Jezki’ and the imposing Chaser in the making ‘Un atout’both turn up! What a way to start the festival,3 crackers!
(4/03/13)
Jezki out to 5/1 with ‘sporting bet’ is too big for what is a 3 horse race,the way I have played this race to date guarantees I cant lose on it but can win a healthy 4 figure profit should My Tent or Yours deliver the goods.I’ve been offered 40/1 about ‘Jezki’ landing this and next years Champion hurdle and thats my sort of price!(5/03/13)
Jezki out to 7/1 with Hills,thats a joke of a price for a horse with his reputation!(6/03/13)
Still not backed anything against my horse,I’m standing firm!!(9/03/13)
I see Puffin Billy runs in this now and he’s no 20/1 shot,Generous Ladbrokes! 16/1 with hills to 5 places is mighty tempting though too!SELECTION- MY TENT OR YOURS 20/1 ,I am not even going to have a saver on anything else even though with 5 places up for grabs with ‘Hills’ it would be the obvious and sensible thing to do!
[/color:3d4ma4ro]The Arkle
I have a small interest on
Simonsig
at 5’s on the machine and had him in an accumulator at 4/1 with several of Nickys others,unfortunately ‘Darlans’ death scuppered that plan.I dont see ‘Overturn’ beating the Grey as much as he’s been a good one for me on both the flat and hurdles as Cheltenham suits Nickys horse the better,around Aintree over 2m on good ground I’d go the other way.It promises to be a cracker and a proper 2 horse race.Anyone sitting on 10/1 vouchers about ‘Simonsig’ are sitting comfortably,those with the same price about ‘Overturn’ will have twitchy bums as he can jump a bit flat over his obstacles! Good luck to both camps but its more of a watching brief for me!
8 days and counting,a race to saver if only as a tactical Cat and Mouse between the first 2 in the betting.No major wagers in this one for me.
(10/03/13)
I cant seeSimonsig
being beaten in this and expect an epic performance of ‘Sprinter Sacre’ proportions,he just has way too much scope than the mighty ‘Overturn’.
SELECTION- SIMONSIG 4/1
,only small stakes on but a winners a winner,still an exciting 2 horse race.
Champion hurdle
I cant watch a Champion hurdle without having a bet so after considering everything I am siding with
Binocular
at 16/1,the price has influenced me somewhat as his forms in the book and if ‘The Hurricane’ creates a Whirlwind performance we’re chasing his backside,I’d settle for a place against a horse of his calibre.
Darlan
was my long term Ante-Post bet having snaffled 26’s on the machine down,I also had 16/1 on here so the race is a loser for me currently,what with
Spirit Son
failing to make the line up the year before I’d like to see a change of luck.I’m not kidding myself ‘Binocular’ is a good thing but he is an e/w bet at double figures.
Dangers- ‘Zarkandar’ has always been a danger imo,I rate him highly.
(3/03/13)
Another cracking race and I’ll be hoping ‘Binocular’ turns up as I’m in the Henderson/Mcmanus/Mccoy team making up for ‘Darlan’.I keep getting asked why I’m not onCinders and Ashes
then??? He does remind me of his sire a lot and he was no slouch,I’d say he was the Dark horse of the race and faster ground could bring out that ‘Supreme’ effort.It would be no surprise to see him win imo as that novice hurdle is a Goldmine for future winners.
(9/03/13)
I’m still happy withBinocular
but I’m not surprised to see money for ‘Zarkandar’,he’s been my number 1 danger since I backed ‘Darlan’ last year!
SELECTION- BINOCULAR 16/1
,medium stakes to try and claw back money lost Ante-Post on both ‘Darlan’ and ‘Spirit Son.I’d like to see ‘Cinders and Ashes’ boost last years ‘Supreme’ too. ZARKANDAR,is a major danger to all though!
The Festival Chase
I’m still in the dark as to who turns up but my number 1 selection without any doubt would be
Cantlow
,I still see Dom flying around the turn last year over hurdles and I’d like to see AP just reigning him in this year,he’s well handicapped for a race like this and at 12/1 I’ve had to back him,I’ve lost on him before we even start as he was my ‘Centenary’ selection originally.I hope my old pal
Calgary Bay
runs as he’s an e/w player at 33/1.As for
Quantitativeeasing
god only knows,he’s shown less than zilch so far and to see him win would surprise even me!Its a wide open race as ever so not one to go overboard on.
Dangers-‘Young Mick’ only a novice last year and ran a blinder.(3/03/13)
‘Calg’ definitely needed the run yesterday so could easily turn out again in the ‘JLT Festival’ but I still hopeCantlow
runs as he looks the likely winner to me,with 8 days to go we’re still in the dark and thats a PR joke!
(6/03/13)
5 days to go andCantlow
is still declared to run in 4 races,thats a joke,the money tells me its the ‘JLT’ and I hope it is,he’s 8/1 now and come the day he’ll do what ‘Wichita Lineman’ did……….Get backed heavily and win!
SELECTION- LOCH BA 12/1
,that ones come out of the ball park as I’ve lost medium stakes on bloody ‘Cantlow’!I cant put up QUANTITATIVEEASING as a confident selection even though he’s still the best handicapped horse in the race and
FRUITY O ROONEY
to place also would suit me fine!
Cross Country
A great spectacle but a race I enjoy watching rather than betting in as anything can win it even after jumping the last.A horse I would like to see run in it though is Gordon Elliots
Chicago Grey
,I just think it would keep him interested until he quickened away from the last.At 16/1 he’s tempting as he’d be backed on the day for sure.
Dangers-‘Outlaw Pete’ another winner for JP?
‘Chicago’ could still line up yet and will be my selection if he does in 8 days time.He’s being nibbled at too! 12’s now.
(11/03/13)
Thankfully I never touched the race as I’d have lost on ‘Chicago Grey’ but having looked closely today and on form through ‘Outlaw Pete’ I believe the 2011 RSA winnerBostons Angel
at 9/1 is the bet,he is my selection and wont be backing anything else.
SELECTION- BOSTONS ANGEL 9/1
,only an interest bet but one that could give me something to cheer home.
Mares Final
Sadly its become a benefit for
Quevega
,an incredibly poorly placed mare imo,she has the ability to be a World hurdler but connections strangely like to turn up once a year to see her pick up the cheque and dissapear again!Not one I’ll be betting in.
Dangers-‘Une Artiste’ has the ability to run a big race.
SELECTION- ALASI 20/1
,I backed her last year in this and have stayed loyal to small stakes.
Centenary chase
Now this ones got a potential banker in it in
Carlito Brigante
,I’ve taken 12/1 a plenty and even if he doesn’t run in this I’ll back him wherever he does run,I dont like using the word certainty but this fellows as close to one as you’ll get.Good ground is pre-requisite however so fingers crossed!
Dangers- None if ‘Carlito’ turns up! ‘Colour squadron’ has bits of form that would suit him in this.’Attaglance’ too.
Confirmed to run and thats good news.Straight into 8’s and thats still big,I dont want to see
Toner d’oudairies
in this though as he’d be a danger at the weights,he’s no slouch that fellow,run him somewhere else!
(10/03/13)
In my ideal world I was hoping for good ground forCarlito Brigante
but thats gone down the pan,I’d be lying if I said the weather hasn’t bothered me as it certainly hasn’t done this fellows chances any good whatsoever.In battle you have to accept there will be casualties……I’ll take 3rd place now!
CARLITO BRIGANTE 12/1
,my confidence has been blown around like the swirls of Snow but I’ll take a place now,he could have been a certainty on Good ground,I just hope his class gets him home now…Bloody Weather!
I wont be betting against him though!Day 2
4 miler
I’m already a £100 down (Betfair) on this race as my initial fancy ‘Houblon des Obeaux’ surprisingly doesn’t run,I was close to going in properly on this fellow after chasing home ‘Rocky Creek’ the other day so was lucky there.I was fairly taken with
Goulanes
at Wetherby and also think the extended trip will suit this lightly raced horse owned by the Brookhouses,I haven’t backed anything else yet though but 12/1 is a fair price at this time of writing.
Dangers- ‘Back in Focus’ 12/1, looks an out and out stayer too!
(3/03/13)
The closer we get the more I’m convinced inBack in Focus
,he doesn’t have the speed of ‘Boston Bob’ so God knows why ‘Bobs’ still the fav as he wont be running in this!
(6/03/13)
Moneys talking and its telling meBack in Focus
rather than ‘Boston Bob’ will run in this,I’ve taken the 12/1 and the 8/1,here’s hoping!
(7/03/13)
At last Willie Mullins confirmsBack in Focus
for this,they knew all along as he’s been heavily backed all week from 8/1 to 4/1 in places……Money talks,at least something does!!
SELECTION- BACK IN FOCUS 12/1
,I’m expecting a victory here and will be dissapointed if he fails!
Neptune hurdle
Potentially the hurdle race of the festival,’The New One’ obviously has his supporters and MTOY has certainly franked his form but I wont touch him.’Pont Alexandre’ now there’s a horse,he’s a chaser in the making and a Gold cup one at that too but over hurdles and 21/2m I believe he’s vulnerable and the horse I rate highly is Mouse Morris’s
Rule the World
,he too is a Gold cup horse in the making but has enough toe to win this,I’m on at 12/1 and would describe him as a major player in my team,the race is too tricky to call him banker material as with the possible entries of ‘Puffin Billy’ and ‘Taquin de seuil’ turning up this promises to seperate the men from the boys!
Dangers- plenty!!
(3/03/13)
I’m staying loyal to Gigginstown and have no reason to get offRule the World
now,he looks like a proper ‘Neptune’ horse to me and even at 10/1 is over-priced.’Puffin Billy’ still the one I see as the e/w bet at 14/1.Some race this!
(7/03/13)
Confirmed to run today and at least I’m ‘guessing’ the correct targets for my horses,all they have to do now is at least run a place!(10/03/13)
I’m delighted with my horse here and wont be backing anything else in the race,12/1 a plenty and a place will do nicely thanks!SELECTION- RULE THE WORLD 12/1
I’m certainly expecting a place from this fellow and again will be amazed if he fails,a good form boost today through the ‘Supreme’.
RSA Chase
Another one of those races I spend a helluva lot of time studying,’Dynaste’ is no certainty and at 5/2 is way too short imo.I remember thinking straight after the ‘Feltham’ that
Hadrians Approach
would get a damn sight closer around Cheltenham and I stick with that,I’ve backed him regularly at 25/1 down to 14/1 all of those bets recorded on ‘A Kings Ransom’ incidentally,I have also had a Tenner on at 55’s on the machine so will be hoping he gets there in one piece and his jumping holds up! If I knew
Boston Bob
was a definate runner I’d call him banker material,I rate this fellow highly and have backed him at 10/1 down but geez he’s no experience over fences,some might say thats a good thing as connections think so highly of him and that chasing was always his game,I personally believe you cant get enough experience at this game so I’m a tad concerned.If he turns up I believe he’ll win! I wont be looking for a 3rd horse in this race as I’m happy with just the 2.
Dangers-‘Dynaste’ if he really isn’t another Grand Cru’s.
(4/03/13)
I wouldn’t change my 2 here for anything else and certainly expect both to place!(7/03/13)
At last those of us who have saidBoston Bob
is an RSA horse can at least sigh relief for the first time this year,confirmed today he’s a runner! Brilliant!
(10/03/13)
This race is shaping up nicely from an Ante-Post perspective,my 2 horses having been backed from 25/1 and 10/1 down now trade at 6/1 and 5/2 respectively.I expect a Win and place return here!SELECTION- BOSTON BOB 10/1 and HADRIANS APPROACH 25/1
, I cant split this pair and again will be gutted if at least both aren’t placed,one should win!!
Champion chase
Last year I was convinced that ‘Sanctuaire’ was a Champion Chaser and had a fair few dabbles on the machine at 20’s down then I woke up………Something I learnt from my ‘Frankel’ days! Having seen both ‘Sanctuaire’ and
Sprinter Sacre
in the flesh at Cheltenham this year I soon realised that the latter is something else and thats just to look at,he dwarfs ‘Sanctuaire’ who is incredibly narrow around the shoulder so I’ll sit and just watch the beast devour my bet! I have had a daft £50 on ‘Sanctuaire’ at 6/1 (Stan James) without the fav though! Lesson learned quicker this time Joni!
Dangers-Only if the beast fails to fire!
A spectacle to sit and watch with a glass of Champers,that will do for me here.
(6/03/13)
I see Corals are offering Evens about ‘Sprinter Sacre’ to a max £20 bet…….Whoopy do!SELECTION- SANCTUAIRE 20/1 and 6/1 without the Fav. SOMERSBY 8/1 without the fav
are my 2 interest bets,I’ll take a 3rd place now on ‘Sanctuaire’ at the price now though!
Champion chase
Last year I was convinced that ‘Sanctuaire’ was a Champion Chaser and had a fair few dabbles on the machine at 20’s down then I woke up………Something I learnt from my ‘Frankel’ days! Having seen both ‘Sanctuaire’ and
Sprinter Sacre
in the flesh at Cheltenham this year I soon realised that the latter is something else and thats just to look at,he dwarfs ‘Sanctuaire’ who is incredibly narrow around the shoulder so I’ll sit and just watch the beast devour my bet! I have had a daft £50 on ‘Sanctuaire’ at 6/1 (Stan James) without the fav though! Lesson learned quicker this time Joni!
Dangers-Only if the beast fails to fire!
Coral Cup
As per last year I cant go past one of my fav horses in
Get me out of Here
,I’ve taken a very generous 20/1 about a horse who will be placed again granted good ground,I was hoping for a Pertemps entry myself as I think 3m will suit him perfectly,which brings me to the World hurdle,he wouldn’t disgrace himself there either just looks at his form with ‘Oscar whiskey’!
Dangers-‘Toner D’oudairies’ one I’m looking out for!
8 days and counting and I’m still in the dark over this race this year!
(10/03/13)
I’ve finally got round to backing something for this and itsPendra
with Betfred at 7/1 NRNB.I just like his whole profile.
SELECTION- PENDRA 7/1
Is my selection in this.
Fred Winter juv hurdle
I’m afraid this is one of the races I just cant get a handle on at all and will probably not bet anything,we’ll see.
Still No idea about this one!
Champion Bumper
Always a race for throwing future winners but I’ve got no bets on anything this year yet.
Still not backed a thing!
SGT RECKLESS
Is my interest bet in this just because its a ‘Radford’ horse!
Day3
The Jewson
Like last year I have nailed my colours firmly to one horse and I wont be looking any further than that,I’d prefer this ‘Dynaste’ to run in the 3m RSA rather than this mind as he strikes me as a speed rather than stamina horse and he’ll prove a bigger threat in this,hopefully he wont run and that leaves the door wide open for
Captain Conan
.This fellow has always had chaser written all over him and he’s struck me as a Jewson horse since the day ‘Darlan’ beat him at Aintree,I’ve put him up on my ‘Ransom’ thread at 5/1 but I’m sitting on some hefty bets at twice the price,I’ve got plenty 3 figures on the machine too at double figure prices so would regard this fellow as a major frontline troop,I’ll be very dissapointed if we dont see not just a victory but one where he doesn’t actually come off the bridle,I rate this fellow as banker material!
Dangers- I cant see one!’Dynaste’ if he ran could finish 2nd.
I wont hear of defeat for
Captain Conan
,come on my son!!
(8/03/13)
All this talk about ‘Dynaste’ running in this and ruining my bets onCaptain Conan
dont worry me in the slightest,the Grey will give us something to aim for!
SELECTION- CAPTAIN CONAN 5/1
, I hold this horse in the highest regard and wont hear of defeat…even with ‘Dynaste’ in it!
Pertemps final
Not as difficult as it looks on paper as I will back anything Jonjo runs in it,preferably a JP horse, as to which one……I’ll leave it till we know a bit more.I wish ‘Get me out of here’ had got in mind!
Dangers- ‘Sam Winner’6/1, Looks an ideal candidate for this.
(8/03/13)
I’ve taken the 10/1 aboutShutthefrontdoor
in this now and wont be looking any further as I’m convinced JP will win this!
SELECTION- SHUTTHEFRONTDOOR 10/1
, Is my selection in this and a place will do.
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