System Variables

[gomes1]

Hi chaps/lasses

Wondering what you good people felt were the best variables to mine/combine when studying systems

I tend to get bogged down in the jockeys and trainers angle but i find invariably you end up backfitting. Would be good to get a discussion going with others interested in creating systems – maybe we will strike gold

[Cowan6891]

I used to look at the trainer angle alot and developed a few systems around this but eventually reached the conclusion that as you say backfitting will result and no money can be made this way.

What I have had success with is look at what I’ll call ‘horse performance variables’. Things like position_lto, racetype_lto, handicap/non, speed_figures, draw_bias, going, and pace. Oh, and price(value) ofc.

I have a couple of systems I back to large stakes every day but I’m always on the lookout for something new. At the moment I’m developing a polytrack handicap sprint system (and its a lot of bloody trouble so far!!).

Did you know that despite making up 33% of the AW horse population, 45% of races are won by front runners. And horses drawn in the first 4 stalls at Wolverhampton over 5f win 44% of the handicap races.

Stuff like that seems more useful to me than X trainer shows +50pts at SP when sending his horses more than 200 miles.

[gomes1]

Interesting stuff.

Im spending a lot of time myself on the AW at the moment of course its kind of forced upon us but still

I believe there is definitely an angle when looking at these horses who win out of the blue and then are far too short next time. But thats simplifying it, i believe it is going to be a specific type of this horse which if identified will be a real laying opportunity.

So im mining on quite a few angles at the moment. Im trying to classify what is effectively a filthy race using class, highest OR, what the field have done etc.

Im sure if we can get a few people working together we could generate some good ideas

[elcartero]

Would strongly recommend Horseracebase (Google for URL) as the starting point in your search for appropriate variables.

Hi chaps/lasses

Wondering what you good people felt were the best variables to mine/combine when studying systems

I tend to get bogged down in the jockeys and trainers angle but i find invariably you end up backfitting. Would be good to get a discussion going with others interested in creating systems – maybe we will strike gold

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[winnersforu]

Elcartero

Will second your opinion on HORSERACEBASE.

Only recently subscribed and still trying to work
my way round but an incredible website.

For anyone interested you can have a free 3 Day Trial.

Winnersforu

PS No connection with the organisation just a subscriber.

[gomes1]

Ok will check it out thanks. Ive been using Adrian Massey and going round in circles a bit to be honest!

What i think i need most is more time to spend studying, pity you cant buy that!

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