- This topic has 211 replies, 57 voices, and was last updated 6 years, 8 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
Good to see you post Gordon you old silver haired fox. Posters in a couple of forums have been asking where you are. I thought you hadn’t recovered from your scrap with ginge. However as Rocky said in his last movie, “it’s not how hard you hit, it’s how hard you can get hit and get back up”. I’m going to follow you on this one at 10/1. It’s double figures and it has the form.
As one of those followers Gord, I saw you put him up. I did the same on my twitter on Friday. 12s was a crazy price.
Even though I’m on If the cap fits for the supreme, i think I will be backing Kalashnikov too. He will be better on good ground imo and he’s got quite a bit of class I think.
Have backed Sharjah at 25/1 e/w for the Supreme without NRNB protection. Think it’s a good price. They didn’t go fast enough for him in the Deloitte; he was pulling for most of the race. Not saying he would have beaten Samcro but he doesn’t need to be beating Samcro to win this by the looks of it. At Xmas they went a blistering gallop and he was cruising before being blinded by the sun. If he is confirmed for this then the 25/1 will turn into 12s or 10s and if he is a horse that likes a race run at a fast pace; then this is the race for him.
If he runs to Xmas form I cant see him outside the top 3 and I reckon there is no chance he will go Ballymore. Where that leave’s Getabird; I’ve no idea? Presumably Mullins will throw everything at the Supreme and Albert Bartlett and let Gordon have the Ballymore with his superstar? Nah, he’ll have to send someone there..
At Grade 1 standard he has;
Getabird
Next Destination
Sharjah
Whiskey Sour
Duc Des Geneivres
Real Steel
Carter McKay
Fabulous SagaThe only horses who could get anywhere near Samcro over Ballymore distance are probably Getabird and Next Destination but I’ve a feeling Mullins will send these to the Supreme and Albert Bartlett respectively. He will want someone half decent in The Ballymore in case Samcro falls or gets sick or runs off the track; perhaps Carter McKay and/or Duc Des Genievres.
So to sum up; my picks for Willie Mullins bingo in the Novice Hurdle division are;
Supreme
Getabird
Sharjah
Real Steel
Whiskey SourBallymore
Carter McKay
Duc Des GenievresAlbert Bartlett
Next Destination
Fabulous SagaStrange race this.
If they weren’t all wetting themselves about Samcro, most of the market leaders would belong in the Ballymore.
If The Cap Fits was like quite a few others (Getabird, Kalashnikov, Real Steel, Claimantakinforgan) in being a horse whose future undoubtedly lies over further than 2m. None of them are nippy speedsters and all would be probably be woefully outpaced in a Champion Hurdle.
This race has been really rewarding to speed types since the days of Champagne Fever.
Looking for genuine two milers, Mengli Khan fits the bill but he is an ungenuine horse. Maybe Paloma Blue if better ground draws out a couple of notches of improvement?
She must be a very unlikely runner but few of these genuine speedsters would have better credentials than Laurina, who has already run near 150 and looks an out-and-out two-miler.
Done some more thinking and have backed the following pair NRMB at big prices:
Simply The Betts – huge eyecatcher behind If The Cap Fits and an unlucky loser at Musselburgh last time (jumped poorly, caught too far back, ground not ideal). Is a full brother to fast ground chiseller Crimson Ark and has much more to come on a decent surface.
Scarlet Dragon – a freeroll. Probably only runs if it wins well tomorrow. Currently 40/1 NRMB. Likely 14/1ish with a run or money back. Has to be done.
If The Cap Fits now out injured, may be alright for Aintree. The first blow to the British trained runners in the immediate build up to the Festival and the continuation of the downturn in fortunes for Harry Fry that commenced when he lost Neon Wolf.
Getabird
Mengli Khan
Kalashnakov
Sharjah
Real Steal
Paloma Blue
ClaimantakinforganAlways love the Supreme but it’s a bit underwhelming this year. Getabird is 5/4 NRNB, same as Footpad.
Gutted.
Had 16s for him for ‘any race’ from last year.
Looks like Getabird race to lose now. Kalashnikov will probably be my play on the race now I imagine.
I agree with you Vautour re: Sharjah. Was going to bolt up in a very fast run grade 1 at Xmas and that the Delloitte was a much slower run affair that didn’t suit. I know historically Ricci doesn’t run too many of his own against each other, but the conundrum for me is, will they take on Samcro with Getabird? Ricci and others stated Getabird would be better over further on better ground, but now Samcro goes for the longer trip, will they take him on with Getabird? Or will they go the supreme and possibly step up Sharjah? It’s like the Vautour / Faugheen conundrum a few years ago, I didn’t think they would go the way they went with those two but they got it right, even though Faugheen has stayed at 2 miles ever since and Vautour stepped up in trip….either way, I have taken the punt a couple of weeks back that Sharjah goes here and Getabird the Ballymore at nice prices, but there are probably good reason for those nice prices now Getabird is nearly even money!
Not long now!!!!!! I effing love cheltenham and the supreme just kick starts the whole week superbly for me!I don’t think Sharjah is good enough to influence the Getabird decision. His form felt fruity at the time and Real Steel let it down badly despite being granted a very soft lead against Samcro next time. Meanwhile Mengli Khan was ironed-out by the makeshift two-miler Getabird. Sharjah himself was also absolutely pants in Samcro’s race with no obvious excuse.
The main dilemma Sharjah will cause Willie is whether he puts Danny or David Mullins up for the ride as third string.
2 years in a row now that the supreme comes along without the superstar battles and all the anticipation that usually fits the festival opener.
Getabird is unbeaten but not the sexiest of Mullins/ ricci 2milers – I was hugely impressed with his last run and he’s a worthy favourite but he’s very short for one that hasn’t answered many questions yet.
I’m looking back to the champion bumper for an angle and I really like the 2 lads behind Fayonagh last year. Claimantakinforgan ticks a lot of boxes for me and his last 18 months tells you he deserved to be forgiven for sub par runs on wrong tracks or wrong ground. I’m getting stuck in at current prices.
Paloma Blue and Debuchet are also tempting me – both are too long for one that’s proven Chelt Spring form and the other who put them all to the pin of the collar in the Deloitte but got caught by a machine in the last 2 furlongs.
Can’t wait now
No; I reckon they rate Sharjah a bit higher but it’s not a Faugheen/Vautour situation. Faugheen and Vautour were both unbeaten heading to the festival; much like Getabird and Next Destination. I think Sharjah will be the number 2 Supreme horse and he’ll end up here with Getabird. I reckon Samcro will play a role in the decision making, also. Next Destination and Getabird are the top two Novices but both are Stayers in the making. Getabird just might be good enough to win over multiple trips and The Supreme is open and it’s inportant for them. Would love to see Next Destination take on Samcro but I feel they’ll throw a second string horse, like Carter McKay, at The Ballymore and send ND to the Albert Bartlett
I feel Ainchea is probably going to run here rather than the Ballymore and have taken a bit of the 66/1 (each-way) with the Betfair sportsbook.
The sounds from the stable are good and he’s run well on both trips to Cheltenham and I don’t think there’s much substance to this outside of the front two in the market. He beat Whatswrongwithyou fair and square at Sandown; that form looks decent with the Henderson horse now favourite for the Imperial Cup and the Tizzad horse would have beaten another Henderson job back there last time but for an unfortunate last hurdle fall.
If he runs in the Ballymore I’ll lose the stake but I’d rather the 66s with that peril than 40s NRNB.
Agree with Pointer regarding Debuchet, going to really appreciate better ground than what he has had this year in Ireland. Even based on his run LTO you cannot have him double the price of Sharjah & co. Cracking bet EW with NRNB @ 50s IMO.
Alan King has been trying for some time to get a run into Scarlet Dragon, (repeatedly
thwarted were his words) and the intention was to take in a Novice Hurdle at Newbury a couple
of weeks back, a dirty scope put paid to that. He’s was a flat horse that I really liked, he
has a touch of class having been placed in group races and I’ve been looking for him coming out.
I think the betting indicated that he might just need the race in the Dovecote Novice Hurdle at
Kempton on Saturday, and I think King thought that whatever he did he would come on for it.
There’s no doubting he came up against a right good one in Global Citizen, who won with a good
deal of authority, but that one had had a pipe opener at Southwell a couple of weeks back, and
went into this in good form. Scarlet Dragon on the other hand was very much taken care of, held
up out the back and made a bit of a Horlicks of the 3rd, but I thought he traveled sweetly after
that and came through really well when there was no chance of taking on the winner who had the
race tied up with 3 to go. He’s the only entry that King has in the race, and I think there’s every
chance he will let him take his chance here. In any case, he’s 50/1 NRNB with Bet365,
so nothing to be lost if you think he’s worth chancing, I think he’s great value at that price.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.