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Bit of a drift for Getabird; out to 7/4 with PP from 5/4. He’s 5/2 on the exchange.
Samcro 6/4 on PP.
Getabird 5/1 for The Ballymore.
Not got a terrible record in this with Cinders and Ashes, Champagne Fever and Altior all providing nice starts to preceding’s in recent years. I’m happy to take on the market principles with a couple who look good value in Claimantakenforgan and Simply The Betts. Neither have done anything majorly wrong this season and ought to outrun their odds.
I think if Samcro doesn’t turn up for this then there are three runners …
Getabird but unless he drifts he shan’t be getting my vote.
Claimintakinforgan who brings Champion Bumper form to the table and at 20/1 and 25/1 e/w looks solid to me.
First Flow who has not done a lot wrong and was big price when I backed it at 33/1 e/w
Hopefully these three will run up the hill together !! LOL Here is wishing!!
Enjoyed your preview and the thumbs up down format Lost Soldier Three.
I haven’t seen one I like this year and may not play at all. That’s very unusual for me. Maybe it’s the speed factor I am not seeing.
At twice the odds of Kalashnikov, Summerville Boy will surely appeal to some. He won the race well enough and if we believe the improvement shown in that race to land it, you might expect more to come if that really is the race that launched his career.
The third horse in the Tolworth, Mont Des Avaloirs, went on to be beaten just as far in the Dovecote, when 4th to the impressive Global Citizen. Scarlet Dragon, who was runner up in the latter race is quite fancied by connections this time and he was anchored quite far back early in the Dovecote.
Whilst the media were fawning all over Carntop’s owners and the commentator was mentioning Humphrey Bogart and Camilla’s horse running in the Lingfield Derby Trial, it seemed to be unnoticed that Scarlet Dragon had a higher Flat rating than both of them and had had a wind surgery. Alan King’s runner blew the other two away and put a slight puncture in Camilla’s Gold Cup tyres but you couldn’t say he would have run with a more prominent ride. My main worry for Scarlet Dragon is that he doesn’t look to have a build for the jumping game,being dwarfed by Global Citizen.
Going back to Summerville Boy we need to accept that he suddenly found 20 lbs improvement in the space of 3 weeks on his 5th start. He had been well beaten the time before by Western Ryder and even if we accept that Greatrex’s horse stank the place out on 116, it still seemed a huge leap forward out of the blue. Maybe it was the heavy ground that helped him perform better and I wouldn’t rule out Summerville Boy/Kalashnikov being right in the mix if it’s very testing.
I may give The Communards’ Jimmy Summerville Boy a shout but will wait to see the going.
“Don’t Leave Me This Way”
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
ps The “Other” Sharjah won at Dundalk this evening at 9/1, an omen perhaps?
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Debuchet looks worth a go at 66/1 or 50/1 to me. Slowly run race on soft ground is unlikely to have suited last time and it was only an amazing run from Fayonagh that beat him in the bumper last year. Looks a big price when compared with that of Paloma Blue. This is likely to be a very different test to the Deloitte.
Oh boy, I’ve had an absolute howler in this race owing to the ground.
I backed Claimantakinforgan before he won at Ascot. My 20/1 briefly looked great but he now looks set to SP 14/1 or 16/1 on unsuitable ground.
I then had small plays on Simply The Betts (40/1) and Scarlet Dragon (50/1) both e/w. Simply The Betts has some form on soft ground but most of the angle there was that he would prefer better ground on pedigree. I’ll probably beat SP on Scarlet Dragon but was hoping he’d win and/or jump well at Kempton.
All in all, that’s a bit of a mess really. I’ve had a real about-face with this race in the last couple of days. I was looking for big-priced alternatives because, again, I was assuming decent ground would place the emphasis on SPEED, which would be bad news bears for Getabird. On soft ground, he can be ridden positively and bring his stamina into play as Champagne Fever did on a similar surface in his year.
You lose all the juicy first race offers by betting on the exchange, but at around 9/4 I’d say he’s a smidge of value now.
Looking at the oppo: Samcro – NR, Kalashnikov – ground?, Summerville Boy – ability?, Mengli Khan – attitude, held on form, Paloma Blue – ability?, Claimantakinforgan – ground? , First Flow – ability, diabolical speed figures, Sharjah – stamina?, Slate House – fruity early-season form in small fields, Scarlet Dragon – jumping?, Western Ryder – Greatrex’d?, Simply The Betts – jumping/ground?, THE REST – ability?
I’ve already butchered this race quite badly but hopefully this bet saves the day to some extent.
First Flow appeals to me. Perhaps he needs to improve but he’s not far behind Summerville boy and Kalashnikov on lines through Midnight Shadow and Mont des Avaloirs and he is well suited to soft ground. I’ve taken 12/1.
Even though I’ve been on Kalashnikov in his last two runs, I’m just about swaying towards Getabird.
The free bet if you lose offers from Betway, Coral and Skybet is enough to tempt me in for a bet at 6/4. But I’ll wait until Tuesday morning as I expect him to touch 2/1. I too think Kalashnikov wants further and that he will be better on nicer ground (despite winning last time in the Betfair on heavy).
I think Getabird will just about be good enough. Hardly a race to be going big on though. Far more value to be had across the week than in this.
I’ve dutched Summerville Boy and First Flow.
Watching the Tolworth again, SB has absolutely bolted up. He travelled by far the best off a pace strong enough to have most of the field beaten turning for home, he was novice-y once he hit the front and quite clearly still green, then once Fehily has given him two reminders he has ran on again and hit the line with his ears pricked to win by four easy lengths.
FF will love the ground and the strong pace, and he’s a very slick hurdler for a novice. He’s got plenty of stamina and should show a bit more of improvement in this.
These two running for me at about 6.00.
Tough decisions if you’re betting Getbird. Do you take a price with Coral’s money back all losers offer or do you take bigger odds (currently 2/1+) on the machine?
He has edged out on BF since final decs but I think that is purely down to there being so many runners being declared. I doubt many firms will actually track him out to the exchange price given the offers and the multiple liabilities.
thanks for pointing that out again LS3, never used Coral so will open an account.
Find the first a real hard race to pick so money back is necessary lol
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Skybet are doing same, up to a score Jack.
I would not be having a bet in this, but it’s a no brainer when they want to give the money back on losers as free bets.
I’ve chucked a few scores, on a few accounts on First Flow to win, all comes back if he loses. 11-1 & 10-1.
A lot of rain last night, he’ll love the ground if it’s a slog.
Well, I started to look seriously at the form for each Festival race yesterday evening, naturally starting with this one, so thought I would add my two penneth – at least until it becomes too frantic to have the time to post on Weds & Thurs evenings!
Impossible to split Getabird and Kalashnikov. There is a slight concern about Getabird left-handed as he ran out going that way in his first point. I’m not worried about Heavy for Kalashnikov. Sandown was his best RPR to that time and it was pretty testing at Newbury when he improved again, his form is far more solid as a big field handicap winner and trainer says he is as vibrant as usual so the race hasn’t left a mark.
Summerville Boy is an enigma. He suddenly improved by 20 at Sandown in a race that, Kalashnikov aside, hasn’t worked out. The latter has come on again since. I would say SB is dodgy on form, therefore, and Tom George, who has never really caught fire this season is right out of form at present. So is Kim Bailey and First Flow’s speed figures are poor. Can Elliott eke out a little more from Mengli Khan with a tongue tie? I think he may have reached the limit of his ability in relation to Flat ratings and is not of the right temperament for this. The ground is against Claimantakanforgan and Sharjah.
At a price I like Paloma Blue and Debuchet, both likely to improve for shrewd trainers, the former should settle off a strong pace. But they have too much to make up on the leading pair, both of whom I expect to run their race, so it is not worth an E/W bet playing for 3rd place. Getabird will be very prominent and keep on while Kalashnikov may come under a bit of pressure at one point before staying on strongly. They should be 5/2 each.
The only sensible betting strategy is a win bet on Kalashnikov @ 9/2 BOG with money back if Getabird wins.
surely just do the Sky Bet offer in the Supreme money back if horse loses,, as opposed to money back if Getabird wins GoldenMiller
Can see a turn up here, heavy going, big field,, will have couple of darts at bigger prices with Sky for no risk bet see if can get a price in to kick of the festival
Don’t like the prospect of heavy going for Kalashnikov, he’s by Kalanisi whose progeny tend to prefer quicker ground (a concern for Brain Power in the Arkle). His full sister Kalane was by no means a mudlark and raced predominantly on good to soft or quicker when trained by Amy Murphy and, previously, Charlie Longsdon.
Always felt that on the better ground we were going to have at Cheltenham (who knew) that Getabird should have gone for the Ballymore but with the ground now heavy, I feel things have fallen right in in his favour now and I like Kalashnikov and Summerville Boy to fight for the places.
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