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Darlan didn’t even get the hill and only just scraped a win against, who? Sorry I can’t even remember.
Darlan didn’t even get the hill and only just scraped a win against, who? Sorry I can’t even remember.
I don’t like the horse for the Supreme but that makes no sense.
It won a race at Cheltenham as a novice and it didn’t get up the hill ?!
Today only strengthened my opinion that Simonsig is Geraghty’s ride here and Captain Conan will not see Cheltenham until the autumn at the earliest.
Simonsig
Sous Les Cieux
Moscow Mannon
Sir Des ChampsCome on you beauties !
OK, after today, I’m clueless
You are? reading the last dozen posts the entire forum bar Mark is now clueless
Darlan didn’t even get the hill and only just scraped a win against, who? Sorry I can’t even remember.
I don’t like the horse for the Supreme but that makes no sense.
It won a race at Cheltenham as a novice and it didn’t get up the hill ?!
Today only strengthened my opinion that Simonsig is Geraghty’s ride here and Captain Conan will not see Cheltenham until the autumn at the earliest.
Simonsig
Sous Les Cieux
Moscow Mannon
Sir Des ChampsCome on you beauties !
Yes, he won a race as a novice, against another really poor novice. Turning the corner, McCoy was on the bridle and looking cool. However he found nothing, had no turn of foot, and barely scraped home against a nobody.
To me it looks as if the hill either isn’t his friend, or he needs another year to strengthen up. Either way he’s not winning anything next month.
McCoy said he was extremely disappointed with Darlan afterwards. His ratings have been downright poor as well. 136 is just appalling. I’ve got a list here of the top 15 in the betting. Darlan’s best RPR ranks 13th on the list, just 5lbs better than Allure of Illusion’s dead-heat the other week.
Absolutely no chance. Nil. Zero.
What a messy race this has turned out to be. I can’t envisage me getting anything back from this. The only horse i don’t seem to have covered is the horse i think might well go and win it. Simonsig.
Hands up i was unsure about his credentials but this field looks a little dissappointing. I am ary of cinders and ashes too who looks to have grown and improved a bit from last year where he was decent. The fact Donald Mccain doens’t usually go extreme down the bumper route suggests they thought he was smart last year.
His wins proved little this year but his jumping actually improved a lot the last run and he skips over the hurdles and he looks a nice strong game type who will lay it down in a scrap.
Cash and Go i want to forgive but it still doesn’t bode well. hope he still goes for the supreme, that wasn’t his running yesterday.
Captain won’t go.
I am on colour squad but agree he might be a touch too slow. Montbazon has place written all over him in the style of a future chaser. Somersby style placing.
Simonsig set a decent rpr when runner up to the best hurdler this side of the irish sea and just might be the one.
I am avoiding steps to freedom, going to have another look just incase i am being a bit harsh.
Galileos Chhoice has to be respected but i would like to see him again before the festival. Just think there needs to be a prep run. not sure a horse has won the race being so fresh?
Tetlami could do the job but i am concerned he might justlack a little class. Not fair to rule him out like that and his kempton win was smart enough. Henderson could have a couple in this with a smart chance.
Dylan Ross, Steps To Freedom and Midnight Game now look the main Irish challengers.
Captain ceebee had won over hurdles too. Not sure i can trust the huge lack of experience on him so will pass.
I am more and more drawn to cinders and ashes.
Dylan could go off at a huge price but his 222 reading scares me.
Midnight game might have been well placed for his last few wins, his earlier form was a little dissappointing, i am not sure what to make of him. Has to have a shout it is wide open.
I am worried i have been too ruuthless with steps to freedom.
Dylan’s 222 form doesn’t scream Supreme Novices winner, but I feel that he travels so easily that he’s bound to be on the premises.
When Go Native was slammed by The Fly at Leopardstown most people, myself included, ruled him out of the Supreme. However, Cheltenham brought a completely different challenge, as well as history showing us that The Fly was a well-above average novice.
Galileos Chhoice has to be respected but i would like to see him again before the festival. Just think there needs to be a prep run. not sure a horse has won the race being so fresh?
He’s entered at Fairyhouse om Wednesday but the ground will be totally wrong.
Hard choice for Dermot Weld, run him on bad ground to get another run in before The Supreme and risk enptying his tank before the big day.
Still looks the most likely winner to me, with reservations,but if Capt Conan ran anywhere near to form yesterday we can probably discount The UK contendersPretty sure you can rule that run from the captain out. no way there is that much difference. Do still think the irish are probably shading it but this race is too messy.
Hope Galileo runs before the festival. See what it offers.
Strange looking at Simonsig’s profile. Never once run over 2m and people were talking about him being a big brutish chaser for next season that might need to run over 3m at the Festival to stand a chance of winning! Now he’s pretty much the 8/1fav.
And his topspeed rating of 83, yuk.
Last 8 runnings of the Supreme. Of the 24 horses to finish in the top 3, only 3 didn’t have a topspeed rating of 100+. Ebaziyan (57), Al Ferof (99, but wasn’t given a rating for his Cheltenham prep for some reason) and War of Attrition (96, same thing as Al Ferof).
If we look at the last 5 runnings of the Neptune (couldn’t be bothered to go back further, I’m only using this as a rough guide), 12 of the 15 horses to finish in the top 3 didn’t record a topspeed rating of 100+. Funnily enough, the 3 exceptions all ran in last year’s race.
So realistically speaking, bearing in mind Al Ferof & WoA didn’t record ratings for whatever reason and almost certainly would’ve gotten 3-figures, we’re looking at 39 horses placed in the top 3 in the Supreme and Neptune – and 4 didn’t record a topspeed rating of 100+.
And now the Albert Bartlett.
Last 5 years, 15 horses, 6 didn’t reach 100. 1 of them was on 99, I’ll let that slide. But that’s 5 from 15, a considerably higher ratio than the Supreme or Neptune.
And Simonsig’s topspeed rating so far is…83.
He’ll need to perform very well in his prep.
I thought I would enlighten you to my predicament.
I had convinced myself Colour squad and Montbazon were the two best brits in this race. The more i think about it the more i am pulling away from them and Zarks post has pushed me further with both showing low topspeeds.
I do think mont might place and be a cracking chaser next year.
I am also heavily involved in cash and go. Although excuses for sunday doubts are now huge and i don’t really want to lay him off so i will sit on the bets.
I am now finding myself drawn to Tetlami and Vulcanite who both have seaparated form from the rest and I really do like tetlami. I am not sure what to make of Henderson yeard trying to find as amany options for this race and that puts me off a little but he has had a quie prep and his kempton win was one of the best races this year.
this race is getting messy and i am tempted to draw a line under it.
My switching is a bout of desparation perhaps and i am worried i am spreading too much and then something else will go and win.
Realistically i can’t absolutely rule ou anything which makes it harder. This is a non bet race where i have now got 4 horses covered and fancy two others. i have laid Mont and Colour off so will switch to telami and Vulcanite. No more action i think. There are races i have more of an idea on to get to wound up on this carnage.
Looks a nice open renewal though.
Urgh, Montbazon horribly slow. Didn’t notice that.
Colour Squadron’s run to RPR140 on all 3 starts over hurdles. His topspeed figure is ok, but I’d say he almost certainly needs a step-up in trip.
Simonsig declared to run in the Morebattle Hurdle at Kelso tomorrow.
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