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Point taken Zarks.
Monksland has to have a decent enough shout in the neptune I think it is between him and the front two. He has a nice upward curve in ratings and won going away from a decentish field last time.
Regarding the supreme I think it is deliciously open. I am all over Cash and Go and Midnight game. I think the Irish hold the aces this year. I have had a saver on colour squad because I think he is the best we have seen in Britain and I also think he would have won cosily if holding straight last time and trust him to not do the same.
However ratings wise the irish seem a little better. My only concern is cinders and ashes, I don’t trust the small field form however. I also didn’t like most his hurdling in two recent races he tends to clip 80% of them and lose ground. Having said that both races weren’t ferocious and when the pace quickened he looked a lot more efficient over them so a big field and pace could work for him. WIld card i suppose but wouldn’t touch him at the moment. TOO SHORT for what he has done. I am on the team paddy for this one.
It’s always hard to equate Irish and English form; a line through Steps of Freedom, the other Irish novice (the name escapes me) who fell at the last might suggest Irish form is stronger. I like to wait till nearer the day, when the trainers have made their decision on which race they are entering.
Sea of Thunder?
Well Steps to Freedom’s form is worth less than a Green Card for Bosnia, it’s just been pummeled and thrashed and whipped and beaten over and over again. Yet he’s a 9/1 favourite. When I look at the betting I don’t even factor in his name because he’s a also-ran cantering (horse equivalent of deadman walking). He’s not even recorded a RPR above 140, simply not good enough.
I agree completely about Midnight Game (Midnight Chase, The Midnight Club, too many bloody Midnight horses), I thought he was extremely impressive the other week & unfortunately missed the 16s while I was waiting for targets to be confirmed but I’ve done a double with a football match that’d bring it up to 20s. He’s also by Montjeu, who’s gone from being a Festival negative to positive in the space of 11 months.
It’s not a race I particularly enjoy because it’s very rarely the winners who turn out to be the best horses. We were treated in 1999 and 2004 to 2 wonderful winners in Hors La Loi & Brave Inca, and who knows, perhaps Al Ferof will be able to sit alongside those 2, perhaps Go Native too.
Agree to some extent re Welds record at Cheltenham, he even managed to get an Ascot Gold Cup winner beat in the bumper
It was the Neptune, Rite Of Passage was 3rd to Peddlers Cross
Long term posters will no doubt remember me making him my Ascot banker of the week the year he won his The Gold Cup (25/1 if I recall)
CS, yes, in that too, but R.O.P was 3rd to Dunguib when backed in from 10s to 5/2 overnight. I remember it all to well
I have to say i am shocked that midnight game isn’t favourite. Purely on the basis that any horse that mullins has seems to shorten too much, that is another reason to keep picking at the 14s for a few weeks i think. Irish money will see the horse go right in come the tuesday.
If I could get NRNB now, I’d fancy the chances of Sous Les Cieux at the prices. Didn’t run his race last time out when he was far too keen but he showed in the Royal Bond what he could do when the pace is strong. That helped him settle and I think that the way this race is run, it would be right up his street. The time of the Royal Bond run was very good in the conditions but the better ground at Cheltenham may be a problem.
Hello to all. My usual re-appearance around festival time.
My one and only ante-post wager is Cash and Go, and I am extremely sweet on his chances. I heard very good work before his Xmas run and backed him accordingly. I was very impressed the way he travelled, dug deep and then went away from Dylan Ross, and felt he had plenty more in the tank. I’m of the opinion the stiff finish will suit at Chelts.
After the run EOG said he would try and get another run in to him pre chelts. I hope he doesn’t and goes there a fresh horse. Just a personal preference. 16s is a great price now, especially if he wins a prep race snugly. I don’t fear any of the English horses, but definitely think Jessies, Meades and Willies will be the dangers.
First Lieu was my big ante post wager last year, so heres hoping I can strike again.
I think this is an above average Supreme.
Agree to some extent re Welds record at Cheltenham, he even managed to get an Ascot Gold Cup winner beat in the bumper
It was the Neptune, Rite Of Passage was 3rd to Peddlers Cross
Long term posters will no doubt remember me making him my Ascot banker of the week the year he won his The Gold Cup (25/1 if I recall)
CS, yes, in that too, but R.O.P was 3rd to Dunguib when backed in from 10s to 5/2 overnight. I remember it all to well
Of Course, I came off Dunguib to back him too.
That said surely Dunguib would have run away with The Ascot Gold Cup with nothing to jump hindering his progress"Zarkava" wrote:
I am reluctant to rule out Meade hurdlers anymore. He has had a couple of winners in recent years with go native and nicanor.
His under the radar horses win but his favourites get beat.
Sweet Wake, Aran Concerto, Iktitaf, Muirhead, Go Native…
Muirhead was soundly beaten as an 8/1 shot in the Supreme, came back to run a cracker in the Champion at 33/1.
Ikititaf fell three out at 14/1 when still travelling well.
Go Native was found to be wrong post race.
Sweet Wake was never beaten by more than 4 lengths at the festival.
Yes I backed Muirhead in the Champion Hurdle. I’d also forgotten that Iktitaf didn’t run in the Supreme.
But still, not enough winners & far too many excuses. You keep listening to & then accepting excuses and you will end up a poor man.
For Non Stop’s won 1 race from 13 starts and I bet you could make an excuse for every single defeat.
Yes I backed Muirhead in the Champion Hurdle. I’d also forgotten that Iktitaf didn’t run in the Supreme.
But still, not enough winners & far too many excuses. You keep listening to & then accepting excuses and you will end up a poor man.
For Non Stop’s won 1 race from 13 starts and I bet you could make an excuse for every single defeat.
Agree here – For Non Stop one of the first fancied horsed I’ve discounted from the Jewson. Sir Des Champs turn of foot would leave him for dead.
Galileo’s Choice now 14s best price.
My data indicates that he’s one of the 3 main contenders, along with Midnight Game & Simonsig.
Darlan cannot win without progression of at least 10lbs on his next start. Steps to Freedom cannot win and Colour Squadron & Montbazon also need to improve half a stone.
Galileo’s Choice now 14s best price.
My data indicates that he’s one of the 3 main contenders, along with Midnight Game & Simonsig.
Darlan cannot win without progression of at least 10lbs on his next start. Steps to Freedom cannot win and Colour Squadron & Montbazon also need to improve half a stone.
I’d have to agree wholeheartedly with all of the above but I couldn’t leave Cash And Go out of any short list
Cash And Go is bang in there, if any of the 3 I indicated come out, he’ll have a big chance. I just worry about his breeding, would rather have a speedier type. I also wonder why EJ said after the Future Hurdle ‘I’d be leaning towards the Supreme’. Indicates to me he doesn’t quite have enough speed.
After re-running Cash and Go’s win at Leopardstown I’d be more worried about his tendancy to veer right approaching his hurdles, something suprisingly not mentioned in RP notes, than any posible lack of pace. That fact that he won fairly cosily in the end despite his hurdling is a plus, of course.
That said, if he jumps like this in The Supreme in a big field he’ll either get into a barging match at some stage in the race or end up right out on the outside a la Dunguib and if he does that he’ll need to be a lot better than the rest of the field to win.
I also looked at Galileo’s Choice and Simonsig. While I’m very loathe to dismiss Simonsig fot his chosen race, everything about his racing screams stayer to me, after all he stayed the 3 miles well in his points
Galileo’s, on the other hand really impressed me in the way he travels in a race and I’m a big fan of Robbie MacNamara who would surely be a top pro if he wasn’t such a big lad.
Just looking at the betting on William hill for this and i think the market is ridiculous.
Steps To Freedom is undoubtedly a good horse, but the Cheltenham novice race hasn’t worked out, and he hasn’t run since then.
Captain Conan isn’t the best 2 Miler from the Tolworth and will be outpaced in this.
Cinders and Ashes should be a much bigger price as stated earlier.
Darlan has no chance IMO. Beating Jump City the way he did even if it was relatively easily means he has alot to find. No way he’s good enough.
Dildar will need to run well next time out to justify his position in the Triumph market, and i cannot have him for the Supreme at all.
Pearl Swan isn’t quick enough and isn’t going here anyway, but Hills have him priced at 10-1. The worst bet i can think of.
I mean, i actually think the Supreme looks a fascinating race and that there are lots of good talented horses in the race, but the market seems ridiculously backward to me.
Backing Montbazon and Cash and Go at much much better prices here. The market is shocking …
I backed Al Ferof at 16’s last year and definitely think there is major value in this race.
"CheltenhamSpecialist" wrote:
What Weld does at Galway (who cares)
Ouch! I’m not the only poster on here that has cashed in big time on Weld’s horses at this superb meeting, thehorsesmouth…..where are you?
17 winners last year, many of which were jumpers.
Galway is a top meeting, underestimate it at your peril.Whilst I coudn’t disagree more with your Galway slight, I do agree with your analysis of statistics. They are not for me but obviously not to be dismissed out of hand either.
Dermot Weld’s dominance of Galway has been astounding really, year after year he throws out a whole host of winners. I wouldn’t let his festival record put anyone off Galileo’s Choice. Unaccompanied ran a cracker last year. Before that, Rite Of Passage came up against a serious horse in Dunguib while he just wasn’t quick enough for the Neptune.
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