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Looking at Betfair, Allure Of Illusion isn’t going to Cheltenham at all. Gone for a massive walk in the Supreme and Neptune in the last couple of days
Looks a horse full of potential to me.Have fancied Alan Kings Montbazon for some time for this race and at 20/1 with Laddies he looks worth a decent EW punt. He is a high class horse that loves decent ground. The form of his debut over hurdles at Newbury is very solid on ground that did not suit but he travelled very well there and was only run out of it close home by Colour Squadron. Hacked around at Plumpton the other day for more hurdling experience and come the day he will be spot on.
Laddies the last bookie offering 20s, wont last much longer.
Having just seen the entries for The Supreme I’ve had to revise my short list
These three against the field would do for me if I had to bet on the race today……luckily I don’t do Ante Post unless it’s NRNB……otherwise it’s never looked value to me.
GALILEO’S CHOICE has to be a main contender, a high class flat horse with winning hurdle form who loves the sort of ground he’s likely to encounter in the opener. Runs in preference to Waaheb who would surely have been a major player
CASH AND GO holds the best form in the race, is a big improver, A Grade 1 winner from the stable that produced the most spectacular winner in the entire history of The Supreme.
SIMONSIG is a horse I feel has a big future, but not at 2 miles. I’m rather surprised he’s even been entered in this, he travels so easily in his races I had him as one of my leading fancies for the 3 miler but he hasn’t even been entered. I’d feel certain he’ll run in The Neptune but if he does show up in The Supreme then Nicky Henderson knows something that the horse’s form is keeping to itself.
Having just seen the entries for The Supreme I’ve had to revise my short list
These three against the field would do for me if I had to bet on the race today……luckily I don’t do Ante Post unless it’s NRNB……otherwise it’s never looked value to me.
GALILEO’S CHOICE has to be a main contender, a high class flat horse with winning hurdle form who loves the sort of ground he’s likely to encounter in the opener. Runs in preference to Waaheb who would surely have been a major player
CASH AND GO holds the best form in the race, is a big improver, A Grade 1 winner from the stable that produced the most spectacular winner in the entire history of The Supreme.
SIMONSIG is a horse I feel has a big future, but not at 2 miles. I’m rather surprised he’s even been entered in this, he travels so easily in his races I had him as one of my leading fancies for the 3 miler but he hasn’t even been entered. I’d feel certain he’ll run in The Neptune but if he does show up in The Supreme then Nicky Henderson knows something that the horse’s form is keeping to itself.
CS – some interesting opinion. Galileos’s is one i know little about. Cash and Go was on my bumper short-list last year and I was disappointed he didn’t make the race. He was very impressive I agree over Christmas, so the current price is of appeal.
Re Simonsig, as soon as I’d seen the race against Fingal Bay at Sandown my immediate thought was of ‘Supreme’ horse. Hacking along and quickened with FB, yet when push came to shove he looked to be outstayed. So it’s interesting you think the opposite to me, as if ever i thought an animal needed dropping back in trip that;s the one to me. How he could imagine turning tables with an in-form Fingal is questionable.
I really like the look of Cinders and Ashes and hold a 20/1 ew slip so am happy with that and also Midnight Game seems to be getting the hang of things and looks like been WPM’s no1.[
CS – some interesting opinion. Galileos’s is one i know little about. Cash and Go was on my bumper short-list last year and I was disappointed he didn’t make the race. He was very impressive I agree over Christmas, so the current price is of appeal.
Re Simonsig, as soon as I’d seen the race against Fingal Bay at Sandown my immediate thought was of ‘Supreme’ horse. Hacking along and quickened with FB, yet when push came to shove he looked to be outstayed. So it’s interesting you think the opposite to me, as if ever i thought an animal needed dropping back in trip that;s the one to me. How he could imagine turning tables with an in-form Fingal is questionable.
I really like the look of Cinders and Ashes and hold a 20/1 ew slip so am happy with that and also Midnight Game seems to be getting the hang of things and looks like been WPM’s no1.Any horse trained by Donald McCain has to be respected these days, he’s turning into a high class trainer.
I suggest you re-run some of Galileo’s Choice’s previous races, especially impressive is the way he blows away the very useful Luska Lad, a solid benchmark and a horse that really served it up to Hurricane Fly and Solwit a few months before taking on Gallileos…..and he can jump!
Forget the defeat in heavy ground last time out although it still read very well in the contxt of this raceI can’t have Cinders and Ashes winning a Supreme. What has it really achieved?
Yes, last year was last year, however it is comfortably held by Steps To Freedom and Montbazon (who at the prices is a much better bet). He was beaten by Broadback Bob over 2 Miles who was subsequently beaten by Batonnier who again wouldn’t compare favourobly to Montbazon. He’s since won two small field races at Haydock, one a weak contest and the other on very soft ground. Double Ross is a good solid yardstick, but it’s not high end form and conditions were about as different to the Supreme test as you will find.
Sure, he’s a nice horse who has shown a good level of ability, but i fear connections, good placing and trainer hyping it will lead to a very artificial price come the race. I’d be amazed if there wern’t a few better than him.
I have to agree with J. The Haydock trials have no substance or quality or depth to them and because you can say afterwards ‘he won the Supreme Novices’ Trial’, it gives bookies an excuse to cut his price and for punters to make a case for him and part with their money.
Racenames are used far too often because they mean f-all without any context.
My Galileo’s Choice worry would be his trainer’s name.
ok, his Festival record is poor but that doesn’t make him a bad trainer
In fact I’d go so far as to say he’s one of the finest trainers on the entire planet, look at the record of his flat horses worldwide and his astonishing record at GalwayDermot Weld is as big a plus as a plus gets in my opinion
My Galileo’s Choice worry would be his trainer’s name.
ok, his Festival record is poor but that doesn’t make him a bad trainer
In fact I’d go so far as to say he’s one of the finest trainers on the entire planet, look at the record of his flat horses worldwide and his astonishing record at GalwayDermot Weld is as big a plus as a plus gets in my opinion
It makes him a bad trainer to follow at the Festival. What Weld does at Galway (who cares) or his record in international flat races seems rather redundant when we are discussing his prospects for the Cheltenham Festival. It’s not to say he won’t have winners there, but like Meade, he tends to have novice hurdlers who are often over-estimated in relation to their actual ability and they often disappoint.
You should never follow trends off a cliff and you should always understand that trends and statistics always have their limitations in whatever context ; yet you’d be foolish not to give these trends some consideration/merit.
What Weld does at Galway (who cares)
Ouch! I’m not the only poster on here that has cashed in big time on Weld’s horses at this superb meeting, thehorsesmouth…..where are you?
17 winners last year, many of which were jumpers.
Galway is a top meeting, underestimate it at your peril.Whilst I coudn’t disagree more with your Galway slight, I do agree with your analysis of statistics. They are not for me but obviously not to be dismissed out of hand either.
I can’t have Cinders and Ashes winning a Supreme. What has it really achieved?
Yes, last year was last year, however it is comfortably held by Steps To Freedom and Montbazon (who at the prices is a much better bet). He was beaten by Broadback Bob over 2 Miles who was subsequently beaten by Batonnier who again wouldn’t compare favourobly to Montbazon. He’s since won two small field races at Haydock, one a weak contest and the other on very soft ground. Double Ross is a good solid yardstick, but it’s not high end form and conditions were about as different to the Supreme test as you will find.
Sure, he’s a nice horse who has shown a good level of ability, but i fear connections, good placing and trainer hyping it will lead to a very artificial price come the race. I’d be amazed if there wern’t a few better than him.
Check the Ascot race – C&A got back off the floor losing about 20lengths, so that defeat doesn’t represent the performance.
The beauty of this year is there’s no Dunguib or Cue Card and it’s wide open therefore we can’t get suckered into "the next big thing".
Don’t think it was meant as a slur toward galway as a festival. Just the irrelevance of his record at galway when talking about cheltenham.
I am reluctant to rule out Meade hurdlers anymore. He has had a couple of winners in recent years with go native and nicanor.
My Galileo’s Choice worry would be his trainer’s name.
ok, his Festival record is poor but that doesn’t make him a bad trainer
In fact I’d go so far as to say he’s one of the finest trainers on the entire planet, look at the record of his flat horses worldwide and his astonishing record at GalwayDermot Weld is as big a plus as a plus gets in my opinion
It makes him a bad trainer to follow at the Festival. What Weld does at Galway (who cares) or his record in international flat races seems rather redundant when we are discussing his prospects for the Cheltenham Festival. It’s not to say he won’t have winners there, but like Meade, he tends to have novice hurdlers who are often over-estimated in relation to their actual ability and they often disappoint.
You should never follow trends off a cliff and you should always understand that trends and statistics always have their limitations in whatever context ; yet you’d be foolish not to give these trends some consideration/merit.
Agree to some extent re Welds record at Cheltenham, he even managed to get an Ascot Gold Cup winner beat in the bumper
Agree to some extent re Welds record at Cheltenham, he even managed to get an Ascot Gold Cup winner beat in the bumper
It was the Neptune, Rite Of Passage was 3rd to Peddlers Cross
Long term posters will no doubt remember me making him my Ascot banker of the week the year he won his The Gold Cup (25/1 if I recall)
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