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I think Darlan has to be a major doubt for this
He’s not going to win tomorrow, in which case the handicapper will drop him a few pounds. He could then go for a handicap at Cheltenham
Can’t see him winning the Supreme. JP has other more likely types.Robbie Power said Steps to Freedom will be difficult to beat on good ground and is giving him a better feel than Oscars Well did last year. Put StF up as his charity bet.
Russell said he has a difficult choice to make between Midnight Game and Trifolium but is leaning towards the former due to his reputation.
Topspeed ratings say Simonsig cannot win this race. Just 97 for yesterday’s run. Great RPR though on 151.
Having looked at the form since Sunday and a few replays Sous le Cieux is a definite stayer so that rules him out and every irish SNH entry behind him when he’s won this season(and there’s quite a few). Maybe Midnight Game has progressed since as an exception.
The most impressive for me visually has been Trifolium. Form is pretty good and matches the important trends like solid wins to runs ration and last ran on 5th feb which preps him ideally. Two negs are he hasnt seen anything other than soft to heavy but thats Ireland and he’s not beaten more than 10 runners.
That 5th Feb Grade 2 Punchestown win the way Trifolium accelerated clear at just the right time for a two mile Nov hdle was mighty impressive.
I was impressed with the way DARLAN travelled at Newbury, although jumping is the name of the game obviously and he put in a dodgy one at the second last. Still siding with him at the moment, maybe MONTBAZON but starting to think whatever he does over hurdles is a bonus. King’s horses going well with the festival 3 weeks away though.
Said similar before about Montbazon. He is closely matched with Colour Squadron and is probably the best of the brits from what we have seen. Annoyingly i switched form him and colour to telami and vulcanite. Smashed in the teeth witht hat one. i give up on the race. Just hope i get away with a small return. Covered enough horses.
Said similar before about Montbazon. He is closely matched with Colour Squadron and is probably the best of the brits from what we have seen. Annoyingly i switched form him and colour to telami and vulcanite. Smashed in the teeth witht hat one. i give up on the race. Just hope i get away with a small return. Covered enough horses.
Currently i am on Montbazon, Colour Squadron and Cash and Go. Cash and Go looks a lost cause. I do think Montbazon/Colour Squadron are the best British horses.
Would have been interested to see if Colour Squadron would have won if he had stayed up. I feel as if his falls gives a false perception to the eye, as Montbazon was caught flat footed at the 3rd last and so Thornton had to engage him quite early. I don’t think there is anything between them.
Perhaps niether proves good enough, but at the prices they are knocking EW bets.
Was convinced Darlan wasn’t good enough, but he did travel very before falling. I don’t know, im still not convinced and wouldn’t back him.
Analysing the results from the past 15 years of this race and I became intrigued with the performances of novices who had previously ran in any of the large handicap hurdle races prior to Cheltenham, e.g. The Pierse, William Hill, Ladbroke and former Tote Gold Trophy.
So I went through every runner in the Supreme since 1997 and came up with the following;
There were no runners in the 1997, 1998, 1999, 2001 (abandoned), 2004, 2005 and 2006 runnings.
Of the remaining years.
In
2000
Rodock was beaten a short head off 141 by stablemate Copeland in the William Hill Hurdle at Sandown. He then went on to finish 5th, beaten just over 2 lengths in the Supreme Novices.
Stable companion Mr Lamb Fell at the 1st in the Gold Trophy and also fell at the last in the Supreme when looking well held.
In
2002
there were 5 qualifiers.
– Westender finished 8th in the Ladbroke off a mark of 145 then went on to finish 2nd in the Supreme Novices.
– Native Scout beaten 1.5 lengths in the Pierse off a mark of 121 went on to finish 6th, beaten circa 8L in the Supreme.
– Got One Too who was beaten over 15 lengths in the Gold Trophy off a mark of 133 finished 10th in the Supreme.
– Snob Wells, a rank outsider in both finished out of sight in both the Pierse and the Supreme.
– The very unlucky Adamant Approach finished 4th in the Ladbroke off a mark of 124 having won the Pierse off 117 and then fell at the last in the Supreme when looking the likely winner.Two in
2003
, Chauvinist finished 11th in the Gold Trophy off 138 having won the Ladbroke off 122. He then went on to finish 3rd in the Supreme.
Keltic Bard beaten out of sight in the Ladbroke off 122 finished 4th in the Supreme at 50/1.
No hopers only in
2007
with Orbit O’Gold, a rag who finished out of sight in both the Pierse and the Supreme and Tipperary All Star – beaten miles in both the Ladbroke and Supreme.
Two more in
2008
.
Blue Bajan was beaten into 9th in the Gold Trophy off 128 and went on to finish 6th in the Supreme while Pigeon Island was 5th in a weak Gold Trophy off 138 and finished well down the field in the Supreme.
In
2009
Leamington Lad UR in the Ladbroke at 100/1 and was pulled up in the Supreme at 150/1.
In
2010
Get Me Out Of Here won the Gold Trophy off 135 under AP McCoy for JP before going on to finish a head second in the Supreme.
In
2011
Recession Proof won the Gold Trophy off 134 before going on to finish 5th in what now appears to be an extremely hot renewal of the Supreme Novices.
So to summarise, horses that ran well in the preceeding handicaps, e.g. Rodock (141), Westender (145),
Adamant Approach (124 IRE), Get Me Out Of Here (135) and Recession Proof (134) all went on to run great races at Cheltenham though, in no small part down to luck, without any of them actually winning.Others such as Chauvinist, Keltic Bard, Native Approach and Blue Bajan all acquited themselves well and possibly improved when compared to the previous handicap.
Considering Darlan looked like winning the former Tote Gold Trophy off a mark of 146 on Friday if he is none the worse for the fall he must hold an outstanding chance in the Supreme at best price of 12/1.
I didn’t previoulsy give him much chance but it appears that horses who have proven they can handle the hurly burly of big races against experienced handicappers do well when racing back against novices in the white hot Cheltenham atmosphere.
Plus, while seemingly below form when scraping home at Cheltenham earlier in the season he at least proves he can battle and handle the course – though granted his short margin victory could be used as an argument against that.
Lee
was going well at the time but i am inclined to take the unknown approach rather than just assume he would have been in the mix.
Ok he was in contention two out but who is to say it would not have come to nothing and him tiring quickly or being hammered into 5th or 6th perhaps? It is just as conceivable as him going close but it seems that majority would like to assume with no evidence that he was going to go close. Simple fact is we don’t know so I can’t possibly give Darlan much consideration. if it was the final then i’d be more encouraged.
I hear what you’re saying but my theory is that even if you take the most pessimistic approach that he would have faded into 5th/6th off that mark, as a novice with no seemingly standout horses of great ptential in the race he would still merit serious consideration.
Take the view that he would have been bang there at the line and it would be impossible to leave him out of calculations.
And whichever view you take, the experience (excluding the fall of course) will only benefit him.
Both McCoy and JPM have had their fair share of success and near misses in the race too.
Lee
Fsair point. Mine was the most pessimistic of views. He very possibly would have finished close up. Supreme will be a corker. usually throws up some beauties. I have been thinking if i can see any of them becoming champion hurdlers because like the Arkle i think the future champion hurdlers and chasers over 2miles tend to win the novice event if they are there. chasing types with class usually run well in the supreme but get done by top class hurdlers.
I think it’s safe to say Hurricane Fly, Zarkandar and Spirit Son can battle it out amongst themselves in 2013. None of this batch nor the shocking Triumph hurdlers will come close.
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