Super league grand final the road to old Trafford Saturday October 14th

[sporting sam]

October 14th.
Advice from Alex Hilton is three points Wigan @ 7/4.
Alex Hilton writes for the Racing post.
With Wigan finishing like a train and scoring multiple points wins in recent weeks over all the sides remaining in the knockout stages
(and winning the “hubcap”) the regular season winners shield, it seems a fair call.
My advice, don’t take it.
It is a very poor call in reality even if the bookies cut Wigan should they reach the final.
I’ll explain why during the week.
We still have elimination matches to play and more likely as not saint Helens have to go to Catalans in the semi final next Sunday. Even that is not a certainty as they’ve to beat Warrington first.
But Alex Hilton says “draw a line through saints if they go to France next week”. By inference he implies it will be Wigan Catalans final.
Worst advice I’ve seen in a long time and were you to wait until October 14 you would get a far better price on the final between opponents we then know will be in the final.

[sporting sam]

As promised reasoning why the racing post advisors advice was not sound
Wigan still have to play their semi final and once St Helen’s and Catalans have sorted themselves out the price won’t have changed. If it has changed it’s still a poor bet as there’s so many match day markets taking a bet about a price which won’t be any better or worse come next Saturday is duff.
The first semi final takes place tonight in France
Between Catalans Dragons and Saint Helens and is guaranteed to be a brutal affair.
The place will be full and the match takes place at the same time as the national union team play in the World Cup.
The home team have made it to the challenge cup final and taken the ultimate prize home before. The super league is more elusive and would represent something more solid and less transient than winning the challenge cup.
But Saints have just won the last four finals and know what is needed to win. They alone amongst these clubs have the bug match sudden death experience. Home advantage could well be crucial here but so could the volitality of the occasion. This particular club are well known for getting the tough edge of decisions and the crowd can turn here on a few debatable decisions and that transfers to the players. Saints have an end of year look about them and for many this is the end of the road. Londoner Louie Maccarthy Scarbrook is calling it a day at the end of the season as well as James Roby.
So this can go either way the french can pulverise saints or Saint can pull on vast experience and pull off a shock win. Wigan have won here heavily already so no shock if saints did the same. But the odds are heavily stacked against the English here.
Two good bets here

Both teams to score a try in each half at evens
And James Roby to score a try and saints win a massive 20/1

An any time tryscorers are also worth backing in a potentially tight match
Saints plus 4 points is also a possibility

If things are going well for the Merseysiders then hooker Roby whose key role is distribution of the football could sneak a trademark try by dummying and diving over close to the posts.

[sporting sam]

Yellow & Red Card shown in the match
9/1
Each team 1+ try in each half
1/1

[sporting sam]

2/0
Catalan on forty mins. A tight match.
St Helen’s handicap +3.5 @ evens

[sporting sam]

Catalan dragons have made full use of home advantage, kept things tight and got through to the grand final. They now have a huge advantage of a day extra preparation and crucially recovery time over tomorrow’s winners. Either Wigan Warriors or Hull Kingston Rovers will make it to old Trafford.
Came up blank but only small stakes whilst winning a clean sweep in the World Cup.

[sporting sam]

Apologies that nothing has gone up till now but like the wales match I’ve kept powder dry till half time.

This is going the way of Catalans as far as I can see.
Catalans to win on handicap
Catalans +2 points at 5/6
This has been a stunning match and Sam Tompkins may well be the difference between the sides.
Current score is 2/2
The advice from the racing post was Wigan to win the grand final at 7/4 several weeks ago and yet Catalans are still in the match. So this can go either way and I said two weeks ago that backing a side before knowing who they were playing was a poor bet not because I didn’t think Wigan wouldn’t get to the final but you’ve got to respect the opponents and this game can go either way. Wigan are a man up to a sin bin but if Catalans can see out the ten mins then they will be as fresh as daisies after the sin binning.

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