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This is an idea from another thread.
First race is
<b>Sunday 9 May 2010
4.30 Uttoxeter
3m2f H’cap Chase
Good
Weather ??
</b>
£3k to the winner, 14 runners, 4 of whom are last time out winners!One thing I’ve done a couple of times is list jumping errors in the last 6 chases. Worked well in the Kent National though I ignored it, and wish I’d done it in the Irish National.
; separates races
, separates errors in the same race
– no jumping error on race<b>Our Jim</b> mistakes in rear (chase debut); blundered 3rd, not fluent 10th; mistake, hit & UR; -; jumped left, not fluent 3 out; –
<b>Chorizo</b> -; -; -; jumped left 2 out, went left last; -; hit first
<b>Basoda </b>blundered badly and UR (chase debut); fell; fell; – [edit:] ; mistake, blundered; hampered 4th, blundered 5th
<b>Alexanderthegreat</b> hit 8th & 9th; -; -; -; -; –
<b>Proform Native</b> jumped well (PtP); -; -; mistake 4th; -; –
<b>Ballygalley Bob</b> Hit 1st & 2nd, mistake; pecked; -; mistake 1st; -; mistake
<b>Shammy Buskins</b> -; jumped right 2nd; -; jumped right final circuit; not fluent and often jumped right; –
<b>Sesame Rambler</b> -; mistake; -; hit; pecked; –
<b>Power Pack Jack</b> not fluent on occasions, blundered (chase debut); mistakes, fell; mistake, mistake; mistake 1st, not fluent 6th, mistake
<b>Petroupetrov</b> –
<b>Panama At Once</b> -; -; hampered; -; -; hit
<b>Jimandgary</b> -; fell; mistake, mistake
<b>Sandyzar</b> -; -; -; -; slight mistakes 4th and 6th; –
<b>Prophete De Guye</b> -; UR 1st; hit 2 out; blundered badly and UR 1st; -; blundered 6thSandyzar looks interesting at the bottom, based on jumping (mainly from a couple of years ago)and weight.
Petroupetrov has gone up 6lbs for winning on his chase debut at kempton, and his trainer has won this race recently.
I only know of and visit a few trainers’ websites. One of them is Oliver Sherwood. Ballygalley Bob is wearing first time blinkers, and this is what he says:-
Friday 7th May 2010
This weekend we have three runners at three different meetings. Jaunty Flight runs at Haydock in the Long Distance Hurdle. This is very much a confidence boosting exercise for her after her nasty fall at Aintree. We just want her to complete and run some sort of race as it has been a bit of a non event season for her. Ballygalley Bob runs in the staying chase at Uttoxeter with blinkers on for the first time. If these make a difference he should be knocking on the door.
Silver Bay runs in the beginners chase Worcester. He has been admirably consistent this year and again should be knocking on the door.I like quotes, but I often forget to look at them when I’m looking at a horse, so I’ve just worked through the quotes systematically:-
Basoda
26Apr10 Towcester ( 25 GF ,RPR112 )The horses are in great nick and we`ve had three winners out of the last four runners now. It`s great for the owners Angie and Michael Storey as this is their first ever horse. He loves good ground and I would like to bring him back here as he clearly liked it. – Kim Bailey, trainer
Alexanderthegreat
19Nov04 Exeter ( 24 Gd ,RPR128 )I’m pleased with that win as he’ll be better on softer ground – Paul Nicholls
Ballygalley Bob
18Mar09 Warwick ( 29 Gd ,RPR109 )We thought that this year he might be a Midlands National horse but he has been a bit disappointing. He has taken a long time to get fit and we didn’t know whether he had fallen out of love with the game or if it was just running on bottomless ground. He is a bit slow which is why we put him out in front with the cheekpieces on and we wouldn’t run him on ground any faster than this. – Warren Greatrex, trainer’s assistant
Panama At Once
19Apr10 Hexham ( 25 Gd ,RPR101 )We told Tom to be positive on him, and he was; he had a bad fall at Kelso earlier this season and it’s taken time for him to get his confidence back – Joss Saville
Prophete De Guye
17Feb09 Southwell ( 16 GS ,RPR98 )I took a chance running him over this trip because he’s really a stayer. He was a late foal and has been weak, but he’s strengthening-up now and is going the right way. – James Evans, trainer
I’ll do a bit more work on this thread later this evening, or maybe tomorrow morning. Hopefully by then, Rob will have told us the winner.
edit: Sorry, shouldn’t have written that last bit. Give a man a fish and you feed him for a day; teach him to fish and you feed him for life.
Being a bit brief but having gone over it all:
Proform Native – Useful pointer/hunter chase in Ireland at his best and was impressive in winning an open last time out. Sold to join a yard who do well with summer jumpers and has already won on fast ground and run well over hurdles in the past.
For some reason, I never got into using the Tail-End system during the last season. Mainly because I wasn’t doing much day-to-day betting.
Supposedly it is for the winter months, but I think one of the reasons for that is field size. Uttoxeter is defintely an amenable course for the system. The winners of this race in the past 6 seasons have been priced 20/1, 11/1, 6/1, 12/1, 9/2 and 5/1, so ostensibly there is a 50% chance of a nice price winner.
Basically, look at the horses from the big-priced ones downwards, looking for 2-3 horses which you reasonably expect to place. Pay particular attention to Course form. (Back them to win though, or for the killer stroke put them in forecasts with each other, or the fav.) I feel quite comfortable with it as it relies heavily on comparing the h’cap mark with previous performances. However, I think I tend to say YES a bit too often.
Sandyzar
Hasn’t run in a H’cap Chase since Oct 08. Came 2nd in a 30f Hunter Chase on Chepstow Heavy latest. To achieve any kind of speed rating in those circumstances seems creditable. Came 3rd in a PtP since, but apparently that wasn’t a good performance. May be best on Heavy, but his performances on Good don’t stick out as being conspicuously worse.
Jimandgary
Pulled Up after a bit more than 3 miles in a Hexham 4 miler chase. 7 years old, and only had two runs since his comeback, so an improvement can be expected, but can’t be confident of a place.
Prophete De Guye
Although not overraced, the horse hasn’t had a proper long break since 26 May to 25 Sept 08. Seems rather strange in the context of the trainer saying he has been a weak horse. Do you strengthen them up by training and running them, or by giving them time in a paddock for a few months?
Two runs ago came 3rd in a 22f 14 runner h’cap off a 2 lb higher mark, so technically,[Not supposed to take notice of these things, but the trainer won the Highlands National.]
Shammy Buskins
Won 2 races last Summer, and then bizarrely went up another 2 lbs for coming 3rd in a 4 runner race where the other one Pulled Up! Was disappointing this course on his comeback, so may need this race as well to attain peak fitness.
Sesame Rambler
Was beaten 56 lengths when ran at this course last May, so I’m relaxed about leaving this one alone.
Proform Native
Has been allotted a h’cap mark based upon 3 Hunter chase run in Ireland. Won 3 PtPs this season, the last one quite well at Ballyragget.
New stable. Seems a good jumper and his h’cap mark fair, soPanama At Once
In good form, having won off a 13 lb lower mark 2 runs ago, and then coming 3rd 4 days later in an attritional Highlands National. Has won off a 5 lb higher mark than this, but that was a 4 runner affair in which only 2 finished. Came 2nd off this mark previously though. Going was GOOD on his win 2 runs back, so
See what I mean? I said YES 4 times, YEAH once, and NO only 3 times. I’m a bit too free with my favours.
Just realised I didn’t type up Ballygalley Bob. Should be between Sesame Rambler and Proform Native in the price list.
Ballygalley Bob
First time blinkers. Was beaten less than 7 lengths two runs back off a 3 lb higher mark, so YES, there is a reasonable expectation this will come placed.
Jimandgary
Pulled Up after a bit more than 3 miles in a Hexham 4 miler chase. 7 years old, and only had two runs since his comeback, so an improvement can be expected, but can’t be confident of a place.
Panama At Once
In good form, having won off a 13 lb lower mark 2 runs ago, and then coming 3rd 4 days later in an attritional Highlands National. Has won off a 5 lb higher mark than this, but that was a 4 runner affair in which only 2 finished. Came 2nd off this mark previously though. Going was GOOD on his win 2 runs back, so
When venturing this far south my own view is influenced by those horses I know. (Shows how a view changes since 5 years ago Uttoxeter was quite a way north of me!)
Jimandgary hasn’t done enough to suggest he can get involved here.
Before his Hexham run I’d have doubted Panama at Once, since he took some time to recover from a horrible fall which at the time a few, including his trainer, thought might be curtains. The Hexham run was a real confidence booster, particularly as the gorund was a question mark beforehand, and he then ran a cracker in much tougher company at Perth. If you set aside the recent poor spepll his wins to runs ration is very good for an established staying chaser at his level. I’d be surprised and a little disappointed if he isn’t in the mix down the straight.
Ballygalley Bob has appeared on my radar a few times and normally manages to find a way of losing. He does tend to race prominently, so blinkers might be all or nothing with him.
Rob
I remember you doing a similar thread (was it the Sussex National?) which found the winner. I liked your approach so read this with interest, thanks. Ballygalley Bob tends to go best fresh according to Trends Horses. The stable aren’t in great form so personally I’d rule him out.
No, the Sussex National was Craig. I produced a shortlist on that thread a few days beforehand, based on weight carried and recent form, but can’t remember whether it included the winner!
On the Kim Bailey issue (Basoda), he seems to be on holiday in France, on reading his blog a couple of days ago. Are his horses expected to win in his absence?
Still an interesting approach.
It gets a bit embarrassing when an odds on favourite a stone well in romps in, and I didn’t even know there was an odds on favourite or who the favourite was. So you can see I follow that part of Ross Newton’s systematic approach fairly religiously, in looking at the horses strictly from the biggest price downwards, and not being influenced by the charms of the favourite.
Petroupetrov, the horse that has won its sole chase start at Kempton, wandered all the way out to 16 on betfair. Only just noticed, so I pounced on the 14.5
I thought that as this thread is about reading form correctly, and drawing the right conclusions, that I ought to look at the other horses in the race. Only looked at a couple so far.
Our Jim
6.2 favourite on Betfair. Short price considering he disappointed lto, and only 2 horses finished in the race that he won. Price is mainly determined by trainer form, who has had two winners and three seconds in the past couple of days???
Power Pack Jack
Second favourite. Beaten 54 lengths on only other race on Good ground in September. Been raised 11 lbs for making all and winning a Novices’ H’cap Chase in first-time blinkers. Up against seasoned campaigners this time, though I suppose some would read exposed for seasoned.
Chorizo
First run for 7 months. Would have place claims if fully fit, which we don’t know. 9 lbs higher than last winning mark, so I think we can overlook this one. Don’t understand why it is as short as 9/1-10/1.
Basoda
Only beaten 7 lengths 2 runs ago when jumping errors had put it out of contention. Gone up 8 lbs for winning lto. Likes the ground, no stamina problems, and ought to have a cracking chance of winning if there aren’t any serious jumping errors.
New stable. Seems a good jumper and his h’cap mark fair, so
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