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Fiveforthree isn’t entered so he can be scrapped from the possibles.
I’ve had a look at this race again since the entries and I think it is wide open. There may be some value to be had so I’ve availed myself of the 55’s that was available about Casey Jones.
Ok Meade does not have the greatest record at cheltenham but this horse improved leaps and bounds for the better ground last time he ran. He beat Trafford Lad half a length that day yet is 3 1/2 times his price? My take is that on any better than good to soft ground Casey Jones will beat him further. There seemed no fluke about the victory.
In addition to all of that i’m not really convinced by any of the market leaders. What a Friend looks decent but is there more by virtue of his trainers reputation. Cooldine same applies; and although he may well now go for the RSA following Golden Silver’s win he still has to prove he sees out 3 miles. Breedsbreeze has similar stamina concerns and Nicholls seems to prefer What a friend. Gone to Lunch looks better on a flat track.
Ballyfitz would have a decent chance if his trainer returns to form and if it was really soft I wouldn’t put anyone off Skippers Brig either. They would be my other selections.
Well given Gone To Lunch’s record at Cheltenham and Uttoxeter I don’t think he minds undulations too much either.
I like the fancy prices that I got after he was beaten by Exmoor Ranger. He was always going to go in an upward curve over fences and so it has proved. Each run has been better than the previous one. There’s no denying it!
so Ballyfitz has been given a Grand National entry as well; is it unusual for a RSA horse to be entered for it?
Yes, I saw that as well.
He is an older horse, who had one race in two years, earlier in his career. Twiston-Davies enters a lot of horses.
If you look at the flat stamina indices of his Sire, Overbury (8.2f), and Damsire Rymer (7.5f) on the RP website, you can ignore both of them.
Overbury was by Caerleon, out of a Bustino mare.
Rymer’s statistic is based upon 1 winner, Rymer’s Rascal, who won 11 races.
I restrained myself from having a bet. But if he’s in on the day, I’m on.
The RSA is ultimately known for being a slog, which was won impressively last year by Albertas Run. As ever, a Paul Nicholls inmate dominates the head of the market, in this case being represented by What A Friend (general 7/1Fav) and while he boasts good solid form and seems to have really taken to chasing I’m of the opinion that Willie Mullins holds the key. Cooldine has always looked a classy chaser in the making and has so far been campaigned over the minimum trip over fences in hot graded races over in Ireland contested by the like of Nicholls’ Arkle favourite Tatenen. Cooldine promises to be a different horse when upped in trip and should have a great chance. His jumping has been put under the ultimate test running in fast and furious graded 2 mile chases in his native Ireland and he has developed such a speed of getting from one side to another that come the RSA Chase the other runners won’t be able to cope, and coming down the hill to the third last when the pace increases there won’t be any worries for this one. I see he is entered in Ireland this week over a more suitable trip of 2mile5, I wholly expect him to take this on the way to Cheltenham glory with the latter likely to prove his optimum trip.
Really fancy Cooldine myself as well GN. I’ve had my biggest antepost bet on him for Cheltenham. His progression as a novice hurdler was very impressive and he was far from disgraced against the older experienced horses at Punchestown in the Stayers Hurdle.
I can’t have What A Friend over him at all. Nicholls’ horse has a very suspect head carriage to my eyes and I’m not convinced he’ll find an awful lot off the bridle. He wouldn’t have got near Cooldine over hurdles and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Ruby rode Cooldine instead of him.
Moskova has franked the form of his beginners chase and Willie has a good record in the race. My only slight concern is that most of his novice hurdle form is at right handed tracks like Thurles, Fairyhouse, Punchestown and Clonmel. It is only a minor concern though because he seemed to handle Cheltenham quite well when 7th in the bumper in 2007.
The RSA is ultimately known for being a slog.
I think it is true that it is known as a slog, GN…. but I am not sure it deserves such a reputation. Florida Pearl, Looks Like Trouble, Star De Mohaison and Denman were all recent classy winners who did not lack pace.
I think Hen’ Knight strongly influenced people’s perception of the race by claiming it had adversly affected Lord Noelie, I personally believe this was nonsense as he had no form before or after that indicated that the RSA had burst him. Since Hen’ was then pre-eminent with Best Mate her words seemed to carry weight but without the evidence to back them up. You certainly want a determined character to win it …but that is true of every championship race at Cheltenham surely?Carruthers looked a serious RSA horse today, now joint 7/1 fav with his old rival What a friend, Ballyfitz a huge dissapointment still has claims through the aboves form but wether its a stable problem or his own he will need to show his old tenacity to feature in this years renewal.
Carruthers is a lovely horse but he wont be able to dominate at Cheltenham and is already held by What A Friend. What A Friend’s form is looking more and more solid I’m pleased to say.
Cant understand why Ballyfitz is 25/1 for this when we all know he hates going right handed (as was proved at Ascot on Saturday).
Going left handed at Cheltenham, a track he’s been on top form at previously, is perfect for him.
He beat Big Fella Thanks whilst giving away weight in the winter and need we forget he did give What A Friend a few pounds when beaten 7L by him at Cheltenham last time out.
What A Friend is a worthy joint favourite, but surely Ballyfitz is cracking EW value at 25s?
In what looks a very weak year this is one of the markets where the value has not disappeared. The three that head the market all look vulnerable. What A Friend is probably the most solid of the three but is favourite on the strength of victories in small fields. I expect a big field and consequently he will need plenty of luck in running. The Irish do not have a standout novice this year and from where I was watching Cooldine was no better than workmanlike last time. Carruthers was my main fancy of the meeting last year but after he folded so tamely I would not support him until he shows he can cope with being taken on in a large field.
There are probably several other alternatives but the three I would put up at big prices would be Clarified, Siegemaster and Ballyfitz. There are doubts about all three but I would sooner have doubts at 33/1+ than single figure prices. I think Clarified is the most interesting of the three and I have already discussed him elsewhere. He has been touted for the handicaps but I can’t see the point of the Grade 1 entries if Martin was trying to land a touch in a handicap. In terms of ability I suspect this is the best horse he has trained. Sieigemaster travelled like the best horse in the Albert Bartlett last year and should improve for better ground. I would much rather not have Davy Russell on board but you can’t have everything. Ballyfitz is pretty obviously over-priced given his course form and the possibility of a stable revival.
I liked the way that Travino shaped first time over fences, and had a couple of kopeks on at up to 210 on the strength of his jumping, and his previous novice hurdle form. I wasn’t too disappointed today at Naas, as he again jumped well, before being found out over too short a trip.
Backing him is undoubtedly a completehaymaker, but the race just looks wide open to me (ripe for a Lord Noelie/Hussard Collonges type shocker, imo), and I figured I may as well lump on something that jumps well and wants the trip.
Definitely more hope than expectation though.
If Siegemaster is a pure mudlark it doesn’t really tally with the fact he ran the best race of his career at last year’s Festival.
Backed Lodge Lane at a big price over the weekend. People seem to have forgotten about him after one poor run and he beat Carruthers over hurdles yet is 5 times the price. Think there’ll be a big run in him come the Festival
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