November 12, 2004 at 09:31 #3792
What follows carries the health warning that last year I would not hear of defeat for Chris Parker. So much so that I didn’t even lay off my 16-1 bets when he was in the final 2!
Following my advice could see the value of your investments fall as well as rise, your house may be at risk if….etc etc
I’ve said all along that Jill Halfpenny is in pole position for this competition. I have backed her at 7-1 and it’s no surprise that she is now generally an odds-on shot. She is technically the most accomplished dancer in the show, she has great dedication and is putting in a lot of practice with a partner who compliments her well rather than overshadowing her. She plays a largely sympathetic character on what is the key soap for the audience of SCD and also comes across as a likeable and personable character.
So, is she past the post? No. There is some competition left in this show.
Let’s begin though with those who can’t win –
Diarmuid Gavin – Although the public are currently keeping the loveable Irish garden guru in out of sympathy he cannot win the game outright and the novelty factor of defending him will wear off soon for voters as he himself becomes increasingly disenchanted and therefore less likeable in interview.
Denise Lewis – I know others think she is a worthy winner but Iwill eat my pants if she takes the title. In practice she is often haughty and domineering, failing to properly listen to the advice of her partner. Technically she is a weaker performer than both Jill and Sarah and as only the third best woman she has very little chance of top scoring with judges and (imho) almost zero chance of topscoring with the public. She could even be next out.
Roger Black-<br>Despite his confidence and enthusiasm Black is consitently scoring poorly with the judges. The combination of size 13 feet and a very hectic schedule means that he is unlikely to improve technically. He is being outdanced by Aled Jones, and on last week’s evidence, by Julian Clary. As third best man he might hope to make the last three at Clary’s expense but cannot overtake Aled who is now on a roll. For me another ‘can’t win’.
There then come those with an outsider’s chance –
Sarah Manners is probably the nicest person taking part in my humble view. She looks fantastic and has some aptitude for dancing. She is dancing with last year’s winning pro Brendan Cole who is particularly good at choreographing routines that appeal to the public. <br>It’s tough though to see circumstances in which she will match Jill on judges’ scoring and I doubt that her public profile is strong enough for her to outscore Jill on the phone vote either. Close but no cigar.
Julian Clary -<br>Clary has been hiding his light under a bushel and is now slowly and steadily improving. I’ve been disappointed though with how little he has been willing to play the game in terms of living up to audience expectations of his wit and humour. He is timing his run well as he’s improving every week and could make the final three over Roger Black but very hard to see him outscoring Aled Jones in either the judges’ or the public votes. Might be wrong but anticipate too little too late from the artist formerly known as the Joan Collins Fan Club.
That brings us to the second most likely winner and on current form the only danger to our girl Jill. Aled Jones could very easily win this.
He is improving every week and is already pushing Jill hard in terms of judges scoring of his dancing. Whilst he is almost certainly incapable of out-dancing Jill in the final he can certainly run her close and that will leave us with the public deciding the outcome.
Last year the public went with Kaplinsky (far and away the better dancer) over Parker. A Jill vs Aled final will be far less clear cut. I anticipate that Jill will dance better but I also anticipate that the judges will make allowances for Aled’s relative inexperience and for the fact that it is harder for the celeb men to lead than it is for the celeb women to follow in the dances.
I also think that the public can be expected to factor this into their calculations too.
Conclusion -<br>If you’ve backed Jill, probably sit tight for a few more weeks as her postion is unlikely to get any weaker any time soon.<br>If you haven’t had a bet = Aled Jones represents the value and I’m seriously considering getting on now as I genuinely believe this will turn out as a match between the two and it will be a 10-11 each job come the night.<br>:biggrin: <br>November 12, 2004 at 11:28 #88996MatronParticipant
- Total Posts 5860
I’m going with Aled Jones – I think he will be the choice of the viewers of a "certain age". Coming from a musical background he has natural rhythm and this has transferred to his dancing. I think he will improve even more. Jill Halfpenny & Denise Lewis are undoubtable the danger to Aled.
Latest prices courtesey of William Hill:-
Jill Halfpenny 1.72 <br> <br> Aled Jones 3.25 <br> <br> Denise Lewis 6.00 <br> <br> Sarah Manners 15.00 <br> <br> Julian Clary 17.00 <br> <br> Roger Black 26.00 <br> <br> Diarmuid Gavin 41.00
Regards – Matron<br>:cool:<br>November 12, 2004 at 12:20 #88997
Thanks Sean, great post.
<br>I’m strongly considering abandoning the X factor as:<br>1. Rubbish and<br>2. Expensive!
<br>My wife wouldn’t watch SCD whilst Voerderman was on (long story), but I presume she has been voted off?
<br>November 13, 2004 at 12:17 #88998
It’s a bit sad that I know so much about it isn’t it but yes la Vorderman was an easy casualty. Further evidence for Denise Lewis backers that looking good doesn’t cut it and you need heavy public support to win this. Vorderman turned out to be not terribly popular with the public – perhaps lots of other ‘Mrs Tootings’ had their say too!November 16, 2004 at 14:55 #88999dandanMember
- Total Posts 199
Only seen the clips on Richard and Judy the other day Boycey, while having a post-racing flick thru`the mid-afternoon tripe. Vorderman is a fox, big time!!! Excellent post though, well thought out.November 17, 2004 at 17:56 #89000
any updates? I see Jill now 1/2. Did Aled fail to up the game this week?November 18, 2004 at 11:50 #89001
Aled performed poorly last Saturday. Also, Sarah Manners scored much lower than expected and could struggle to pick up as her schedule makes practice very difficult. <br>Roger Black and Julian Clary seem to have hit the buffers a bit in terms of improvement too.<br>All this on a night where Jill’s lowest score was an 8 and judges again heaped praise upon her. Suddenly her biggest danger looks like being one of my ‘can’t wins’ – Denise Lewis!!<br>My only concern right now is that she might be peaking too early and there could be a backlash if people begin to perceive her as a ‘pro’ dancing against amateurs.<br>She’s coming across as such a genuinely likeable lass though that I think a backlash is unlikely.<br>There has to be a concern too though that producers may engineer some setbacks for her as it’s in danger of turning into a procession.<br>Maybe I’m worrying too much though thinking of the filthy loot I pocket if she wins!!<br>I’m doing the BBC2 show tonight if I get any more steers re what’s been going on I’ll post them Friday maybe.<br>November 18, 2004 at 20:49 #89002cheltboyMember
- Total Posts 129
interesting analysis. I started off by backing Denise Lewis at 5s and then as events turned got some 3-1 on Jill as a bit of cover. Looks a wise decision now. My mum who knows a bit all this stuff says it’s between jill and denise.
But Sean you’re right to flag up the Aled Jones factor and his popularity with the older audience.<br>November 19, 2004 at 11:28 #89003
I think that the crucial thing with this event is to understand the format. To win it (obviously enough) you need to make the final 2. Once you are in the final 2 the dynamics are very different as there are effectively two votes – the judges and the public.
As I’m sure you know in the event of a tie (ie one person winning the public vote and the other winning the judges vote) the public vote is the decider.
So, if you are looking to back the winner you need someone who is a- good enough to make the final2/3 and b- either good enough to beat Jill on ability or popular enough to outscore her with the public.
My take on this year’s comp (and having had a long chat with one of the judge’s last night I’m now even more convinced of this) is that Jill is certain to be in the final two.
If she is in the final 2 how can she be beaten? In practice it is very unlikely (given that the final features three or four different dances) that her opponent will outscore her with the judges. So….in order for her to be beaten you really need someone who will secure more public votes than her in a head to head.
I just cannot see Denise getting more votes than Jill from the public. Might be wrong, but cannot see it.
I can however imagine soemone like Aled getting a lot of public support head to head against Jill and remember that even if she trounces him on the judges score if he gets the most public votes he wins.
In conclusion then, my personal take is that only a man can beat Jill as it requires the public effectively making allowances for her opponent in the final having a tougher task than her. Aled, again in my personal view, is the only man good enough to make the final that’s why I rate him the main danger.
I still think Jill will win though – with both judges and public. :biggrin: <br>November 22, 2004 at 11:14 #89004
I finally saw some of this show on Saturday – surprisingly watchable it was too.
For the life of me I don’t know what all that long-winded prevarication is up above though –
ONLY ONE OF THEM CAN DANCE!
<br>And there’s you pushing blind bets on Lefty Jones. <br>I think I’ll sue!
I can see only three ways Halfpenny can lose this:
1) Aled rescues something very dear to the British public’s heart (Kerry Macfadden’s marriage, say).
2) Denise Lewis, overcome with jealousy, does a Nancy Kerrigan on Halfpenny’s knees.
3) Halfpenny is outed by the News of the World for a secret love-tryst with Maxine Carr, whilst building a caravan park for asylum seekers on the old site of the Cottenham Hunt.
Now stop mincing about and go and collect.
The "new McCririck" my arse….!November 22, 2004 at 12:24 #89005
I actually did ‘LOL’ reading that Tooting.<br>Very good and yes, you’re probably right that I’m being unecessarily cautious but…you know how it is – as soon as you start counting the dough something goes belly up!<br>:biggrin:November 22, 2004 at 12:41 #89006
Good point. Always be humble to the gambling gods.
And how I remember Happy Diamond clear in the final furlong.
Unless Royston Ffrench is riding Jill in the final I think you’re probably safe…
Now, next time old chap be sure to give us the 7/1 tip before it goes odds on!November 22, 2004 at 15:53 #89007
In fairness Tooting I did give it as soon as I’d availed myself of the 7s. First on Geton on ATR, then in my column in the People as well as here on a bit of a digression on the racing forum. I take your point htough – no one likes an aftertimer :cool:November 22, 2004 at 17:07 #89008cheltboyMember
- Total Posts 129
To be fair to Sean, if you’d been watching early on it was clear Ms Halfpenny was good value at 7s and even when she was on 5s. I took the 5 and had some 3s as well.
Not counting my dough yet because she could still get injured.<br>But barring injury she’s a certainty.<br>November 22, 2004 at 19:00 #89009
cheltboy, I was only teasing.
Besides, I’ve just watched the BBC2 thing (a worrying trend) and Jill’s getting some very lukewarm feedback.
I’m telling you she’s gone at the game…
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.