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Hello all.
It’s been a few years since I’ve posted here but have recently been feeling to call to return, for a couple of reasons. Firstly, my interest in racing has waned somewhat over the past couple of years, but I still keep in touch with most of the National Hunt, and still have a bet. I have been betting less often, but when I do my betting has become ill-informed and ill-disciplined, and I haven’t kept records for the past few years. Secondly, I can probably speak for a lot of people when I say the current lockdown situation is not a very healthy one for the mind, and I think the combination of keeping records again as well as being more active here will be good for my betting and good for me.
This thread will likely be focused on Irish National Hunt racing as well as the bigger UK meets. I intend to document bets on a 0-2 point scale, the majority of which will be win only. Bets will be placed with William Hill, Betfair Sportsbook or on the Betfair exchange.
In years gone by my ante post bets for Cheltenham would be numbering double figures at this stage, but this year I’ve only had one up until now: a win bet on Column Of Fire for the Pertemps. He is entered in the final qualifier in Ireland at Punchestown on Wednesday, so I can only hope that he is not only declared but also finishes in the first six.
This thread will begin with four additional selections for the Festival, all on the Thursday.
Ryanair Chase – Tornado Flyer 0.5 pt win @ 50/1 (BF Exchange)
The Ryanair market is full of horses with something to prove. I have been a big Allaho fan most of his life but he just hasn’t done enough for me to warrant heading the market at 5/1. Imperial Aura has looked progressive but I’m not certain his form warrants him being so much shorter than the selection. Min ran a listless race last time and although he has bounced back from poor efforts before, and has the best two and half mile form in the race, at the prices I prefer the horse who was beaten just one length by him in the John Durkan. Tornado Flyer would be something of a shock winner but he had some very good horses behind that day at Punchestown and gave Min an almighty fright. It was also notable how well supported he was in the market that day, I think he’s an improved horse from last season. He has since gone up to 3m for an attritional Lexus which I don’t think saw the best of him, and his jumping was put under too much pressure against Grade 1 two milers on his most recent outing. Back over the intermediate trip and with less pressure on his jumping he has a better chance than most here and is somewhat forgotten.Festival Plate – Farclas 1 pt win @ 16/1 (WH)
It’s usually not the best tactic to be punting in the handicaps before the Irish horses have received their marks, but Farclas has been given 146 for the Grand National and I will be very happy to see him line up off that rating here. A winner of the Triumph three years ago, he had an underwhelming second season hurdling but has since found his feet again over fences. First time out this season he ran a lovely race in fifth as an unfancied 20/1 at Punchestown, and the form of that race has worked out exceptionally. Winner Daly Tiger has won another handicap since and is now rated 20 lbs higher; Tornado Flyer was second and has since ran Min close in the John Durkan and is now rated 10 lbs higher; and third horse Castlebawn West went on to win the Paddy Power (Farclas third there) and is now rated 14 lbs higher. Off 146 Farclas would only be running off a 4 lb higher mark, and he has showed up very well again in his two starts since. He pulled too hard over 3m when third in the Paddy Power, traditionally one of the most competitive handicaps run in Ireland each year. He then went off favorite for the Grade A handicap Chase at the Dublin Racing Festival, won by Off You Go, where a mistake two out probably cost him victory. That was another seriously competitive handicap, and given how he travels in his race, I think 2m 5f at Cheltenham will be ideal. He is effectively unpenalised for those efforts and I am convinced there is more to come. It’s very hard to see him being out of the shake up.Mares’ Novice Hurdle – Glens Of Antrim 1 pt win @ 33/1 (WH)
Hook Up is the ante post favorite here for Willie Mullins but I think he may have a better mare at a much bigger price in the shape of Glens Of Antrim. She has run in two very good maiden hurdles on her most recent starts. Firstly chasing home Stattler over 2m 4f at Leopardstown at Christmas and most recently behind Mr Incredible over 2m 3f at Naas. The form of both those runs may not be winning form but it is as good as any graded mares’ novice race that has been run for my money. They are potentially two Grade 1 horses she has chased home. Stattler has gone on to run very well behind Gaillard Du Mesnil while Mr Incredible chased that one home on his previous outing. She looks to have loads of gears to me and the step back to the 2m will not be a problem. Both she and Mr Incredible pulled 33 lengths clear of Momus at Naas and it was only after a sloppy jump at the last did Mr Incredible eventually get on top after a prolonged duel. It is worth noting she was extremely well backed for both of those starts so is obviously held in very high regard, and if she gets there in one piece I can see her being well backed again.Kim Muir – Fitzhenry 1 pt win @ 25/1 (BF Sportsbook NRNB)
This one caused a bit of heartbreak last year, finishing a staying on sixth in this race, having never been close enough (or asked early enough) to challenge. He is likely to be a few pounds lower this year after some uninspiring efforts but I wouldn’t read too much into those. He has come the same route as last year, and was bet a similar distance at Leopardstown in his prep last year too and it didn’t do him any harm. I would imagine redemption here has been the plan all season and an extra few pounds off his back will be a help if the UK handicapper takes the same view as their Irish counterpart (dropped 5 pounds here). I’m not sure what the jockey situation is this year, with amateurs perhaps not being allowed to ride, but I would be hoping with a better ride he can make up for last year’s loss.-3.5
Tommy great to have you back
Best of luck with the thread..🐴Blackbeard to conquer the World
Naas 15:00 (Sunday) – Jesse Evans 1 pt win @ 6/1 (WH)
Jesse Evans had a good autumn, winning both a bumper and maiden hurdle easily as well as finishing runner up in a flat maiden, but things have gone a bit pear shaped since then. He unseated at the first on his penultimate start when a 7/2 shot for a Grade 3 at Navan, before running down the field in the Grade 1 race won by Appreciate It at Leopardstown’s Christmas meeting. That was the strongest 2m novice hurdle run in Ireland this season, and he was not behind good horses like Thedevilscoachman and Fire Attack there. This isn’t the strongest Grade 2 on paper, and represents a significant drop in class. The only concern is the ground as his best form is on a sounder surface.
Razzle Dazzle Love was uncompetitive in a handicap off 126 on her latest start while favourite Echoes In Rain may well be the most talented here but needs to learn to settle better. Both mares go from the front and will potentially be of no help to each other’s chances. Top rated Streets Of Doyen has achieved his mark over 3m on good ground and hasn’t ran since October, so am also willing to take that one.
-4.5
Poor start to the thread, Jessie Evans was reasonably well supported but the writing was on the wall half a mile from home and ultimately came home in fourth behind impressive winner Echoes In Rain. I’m glad that one isn’t going to Cheltenham as she would be an interesting rival to Glens Of Antrim in the mares’ novice hurdle.
Two selections at Punchestown tomorrow. The first is Black Tears in the opener. On ratings this looks between herself and Great White Shark, but I was surprised to see her open 9/4 with her main rival an 11/8 shot. I though they may be the other way round. Black Tears ran a nice race last time and I would expect her to take a step forward here before going to Cheltenham again, where she has ran well for the past two years. Great White Shark was very disappointing last time at Gowran and on the balance of their form I think she may have more to do to improve past Black Tears than the 1 lb rating difference would suggest. The rest look to have it all to do on these terms.
My second fancy tomorrow is Milliner in the Pertemps Qualifier. He was making his first run for two years when a staying on fifth at Navan a month ago over 2m 4f. Turnign in you wouldn’t have thought he’d be in the first 10 there but he stayed on very well under tentative enough handling. That was a lovely return to action and if he can avoid the dreaded bounce he looks primed to go close. He has an entry in the Pertemps and will need to win here to have any hope of getting into the race.
Punchestown 13:45 (Monday) – Black Tears 1 pt win @ 9/4 (Betfair Sportsbook)
Punchestown 16:00 (Monday) – Milliner 1 pt win @ 15/2 (various)
-6.5
Thanks Bobby, he ran well just not good enough on the day. He was really well backed, going off 11/4 favourite, so I will have to make do with the satisfaction of having been on a good bet.
Black Tears was another who was well supported, before a spate of non runners macheted the price. As it turned out with the non runners I was on a better bet than before but only got paid at 4/5.
Punchestown 13:45 (Monday) – Black Tears 1 pt win @ 9/4 (Betfair Sportsbook) winner @ 4/5 (Rule 4 deductions)
Returns 1.8 pts
-4.7
I didn’t expect to be having a bet at Clonmel today but have been mulling it over and have decided to pull the trigger on Western Boy in the 16:05 Handicap Chase. At 12 years of age he’s not improving and is certainly not the force of old, but he went very close at Leopardstown at Christmas off a hurdles mark of 113 and runs off 104 here over fences. Fifth at Ballinrobe on his last chase start in October off 106, this looks an easier assignment and the return to 2m will also suit. For all that he doesn’t get his head in front very often, I thought he would be shorter.
Clonmel 16:05 – Western Boy 1 pt win @ 7/2 (general)
-5.7
Proper favourite of mine Tommy, I’d have been on him if I thought he’d have drifted out to 7-2, 4’s.
Unlucky, would have been close. Reckon he’s still got one last hurrah in him.
Thanks Bobby, he’s a favourite of mine too, I think the winner probably would have won anyway but he definitely wasn’t done with! Last three selections have been really well backed so at least I’ve found a few good prices if not the winners required
I didn’t have time to get my reasoning in for Uisce Beatha earlier but wanted to get the selection up as the price was starting to contract. I’ve made a case for Farclas for the Paddy Power Plate at Cheltenham earlier in the thread and this one ran in the same Leopardstown race as he did. He was 8 lengths behind Livelovelaugh but has a 7 lb pull in the weights and I think he can turn the form around. He got caught a bit far back when the Livelovelaugh and the other leaders set sail 3 out but he stayed on nicely in behind. Jumping is the concern with him but if he puts in a clear round he should be in the shakeup.
Uisce Beatha was disappointing having been well backed, but at least Livelovelaugh and Mitchouka did something for the Farclas form.
Added three more Cheltenham bets today, one of them has been cut since. Two horses I’ve had on my radar for the Martin Pipe were tipped on the Paddy Power Cheltenham preview last night so I decided to back them before they are inevitable cut with the bookies, it seems it doesn’t take much to cause an ante post ripple in the markets. They are Front View and Galopin Des Champs. Front View was favourite here a year ago off a 3 lb higher mark and wasn’t actually beaten all that far despite only finishing 12th. He was given a sighter back over hurdles last time and at the prices thought he was worth a go. Galopin Des Champs I thought ran a lovely race last time behind Appreciate It. That was off the back of a pulled up effort at Christmas when fancied, so I expect there will have been something to work on last time. I was able get a price boost to 28/1 from 25’s on both to small stakes.
Martin Pipe – Front View 0.5 pt win @ 28/1
Martin Pipe – Galopin Des Champs 0.5 pt win @ 28/1In the Boodles PP’s Frank Hickey made a compelling case for Houx Gris for Paul Nicholls. He ran better than the distance beaten suggests on his only start for Nichols in the Grade 1 at Chepstow, and has been put away since, presumably to try take advantage of his mark of 128. With Saint Sam and Quilixios probably doubtful runners I think he has potential to shorten quite a bit.
Boodles – Houx Gris 1 pt win @ 6/1
-8.7
My 1 pt bet on Fitzhenry in the Kim Muir will be refunded as he is not entered but I am reinvesting that stake in Henry de Bromhead’s Plan Of Attack. He was 4th in this last year off a 2 lb higher mark, and since had two poor runs when pulled up at both Listowel and Navan in the autumn. His effort in the Paddy Power at Christmas was much better though, and with the prospect of better ground likely to suit I think he will be involved again.
Kim Muir – Fitzhenry 1 pt win @ 25/1 (BF Sportsbook NRNB) +1 pt returned
Kim Muir – Plan Of Attack 1 pt win @ 20/1 (WH)
-8.7
Thanks
Tommy
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