Still alive and kicking

[Bricoman]

Oh my God!!!

Just done it again!
N/r declared..adjusted my ratings…went back to the exchange saw what I thought were good odds and got a 100% match…

Forgot to add the +1 for BF odds, so took my selection at 4.2 (16/5) instead of waiting for (4/1)…Double Bugger!….I’ve only had 3/4 bottle of red so there must be a bloody pattern starting to form here.

See you later with the result

Brico

[MrE]

Stuff me Brico…… 3/4 of a bottle of wine and it aint noon yet….. no wonder your brain is going wobbly……

MrE

[Bricoman]

I know MrE..
It’s just so difficult to get out of "night shift mode" on my days off!
(The mornings are my evenings…chilling out time)…

The wife’s still here so I can’t be that bad….

Regards

Brico

[Bricoman]

The Betchworth Kid 5.60…took 4.20 by mistake (WON 7/2 @ SP)…1 n/r but bet 100% matched after it’s declaration.

Had a quick look at the Oddschecker and 5.30 was matched at 2.31pm so my odds of 5.60 may well have been taken…hard to say…I know somebody had a tenner matched on BF @ 8.00 overnight.

Stats Update (July):

Betting @ SP: 18 bets, 38.89% s/r, 7% r.o.i., 2.70% r.o.o.i.

Exchanges: 15 bets, 46.67% s/r, 50.85% r.o.i., 24.15% r.o.o.i.

All in all, a good day…but failed to obtain VALUE…which is the main aim on this thread…

Regards

Brico

[MrE]

Hi Brico….. this "value" thing is a bit of a misnomer, its hard to quantify exactly what constitutes value……. it can mean one thing to you but can mean something absolutely different to me….. it has to be applied using many criteria but basically it would apply to your profit and strike rate….
You know that I’m a bit of a bugger when it comes to short price betting because its bad value or the profit is such that it makes betting that selection far too much of a risk for the probable return…… I will be critical of anyone who is continually betting at odds of 6/4 when trying to bet winners, I have yet to see a Strike Rate that would make 6/4 a profitable bet, you’d need a 50% S/R to make any serious money, and thats at 6/4, shorter is even worse…… I personally look at nothing less than 5/2…..

But there is a flip side where short prices can be very profitable and therefore could, arguably, still be good value…… that is in place only bets…… the fact that you’ve got 3 chances to get a winning bet makes betting short the right way to go…… this is one type of bet that I’ve got myself into lately, I was a Win bet man for many years but after discussions with a guy thats making it pay, I looked at place betting….. I’m usually betting at between 1.70 to 2.70 to place and after 40 days I am showing a profit of 40pts….. that can’t be bad for crap prices…… so I suppose that what I’m trying to say is that value does not always mean big prices…. 4/6 is fine if you’ve got a 75% S/R…….

MrE

[Bricoman]

Good Morning MrE…You’re quite right…as long as your methods are making a half decent profit then there should be no cause for concern.

I did look at the place price for my 1st bet in July…Society Music came 2nd and I had asked for odds of 6.60 but only 25% of my stake was matched just before the off…I could have got 2.10 in the morning for a place…I thought "you plonker"…you could have doubled your stake!…but I’m sure there would be many occasions when I was glad I didn’t. Might be a good idea for somebody to do a comparison with win bets @ SP just to see what happens…my time is fully occupied at present.

Nobody has picked me up yet over yesterday’s deliberate mistake…ie: my bet would have been matched @ 4/1, which is what I should have been asking for after the n/r was declared at 11.23am.

Today’s Bets:
2.15 Bath (16) Perfect Paula 6.60 (11/2) (RP f/c 5/2F)
2.30 Muss (1) Fol Hollow 4.77 (4/1) (RP f/c 9/2)
4.00 Muss (3) Apollo Shark 4.00 (3/1) (RP f/c 3/1 JF)

All stakes have been placed and Fol Hollow 100% matched @ 5.00
Same rules apply…any n/r’s declared on ummatched bets…odds will be re-ajusted, as long as I’m about.

Regards

Brico

Ps: I think we should rename this thread "The Brico/MrE information line"..

[Artemis]

Place betting can be quite interesting, although I think it’s wise to treat it as a separate discipline from looking for winners.

There are many short priced horses that are there to win and if they cannot do that, they are not given the same vigorous ride to be placed.

It may be better to look for consistent, genuine types that lack a real change of pace at the end of the contest, but are never beaten out of sight.These horses are usually attractively priced for a win, which leads layers to offer decent place odds on the exchanges.

[Bricoman]

Hot off the press!
N/R at 2.15 Bath…Had to revise my odds down to 6.20 (5/1)
Currently Perfect Paula has odds of 4.00 (3/1) On the exchanges…

Good post Artemis…That should cheer MrE up…He’s getting lonely out there….

Regards

Brico

[Bricoman]

Major runner has dropped out at 4.00 Muss…
Have revised Apollo Shark’s implied odds to 3.07… Got 3.35 (16/5) 100% matched on the exchanges.

Nearly bedtime…

Regards

Brico

Ps: Only 1 bottle this morning…

[dave jay]

I quite like the place betting .. assessing a horses chances of placing is a really interesting subject which I am going to invest some time in after my holidays.

Not good trying to get a bet on while the weather is like this .. good luck anyway Brico.

[Bricoman]

Today’s Update…
Fol Hollow’s odds were taken early..100% match @ 5.00 (4/1)..(WON 5/2F @ SP)…..Perfect Paula had 1 n/r declared and I revised my odds to 6.20…Got taken in the last 2 minutes before the off…(LOST 4/1 @ SP)….Apollo Shark (4.00) not taken until 1st n/r declared…revised my odds to 3.07 and 3.35 matched @ 100%…Next time I visited the computor there had been another major n/r declared and a 22.3% reduction levied…bringing the odds down to 2.60 (8/5)…I did a quick shufty on my revised odds and 2.50 came the answer…so happy to take the reduction…(WON 5/4F @ SP)

July Stats:

Betting@SP: 21 bets, 42.86% s/r, 19.10% r.o.i., 8.59% r.o.o.i.

Exchanges (inc 5% comm): 18 bets, 50% s/r, 67.05% r.o.i., 38.55% r.o.o.i.

Usually after a day like that I end up having a stinker the next day…

Thanks Dave…Luck is all that is needed…just happen to be getting my fair share at the moment.

Catch you tomorrow am with further selections

Regards

Brico

[MrE]

I’ve been a system nut for 40years and its took me that long to find out that systems dont work unless you are continually updating them….. lots of punters think they’ve got the golden egg but it goes tits up after a couple of years, this is a natuaral progression of a statistic or form based system….. they just cannot continue along the same vein year after year with no modifications. Racing is under constant change, the courses change shape and get improvement, fences are made easier, the quality of tracks are always changing….. Kempton has now become an A/W venue and I believe ther are more to follow…. we also have to put up with constant going changes, more horses travelling from abroad and times that are so inaccurate its unbelievable…… if you have a form/statistics based system, it needs to be under constant review and possible tweaks…. the most consistant systems are those based on market forces and therein lies the means of profits from place betting……

I am a staunch believer in systematic betting, this is not the same as using a system of selection…… or is it ?????….. but systematic betting is a must as far as I’m concerned…… it gives you discipline and teaches you not to waiver, not to be swayed by reports in the paper or mates comments, or even the guys on TRF saying that Authorise was unbeatable… I had Notnowcato as a value bet, and these guys can rabbit away to their hearts content, nothing could put me off Cato…… this is where the system becomes unbeatable, and with a bit of work and application, so will you……. I find all my answers on Betfair, before Betfair it was the bookies "live" betting…… during the weather we’ve had of late I would not even bother to look at a form/statistics/time based method of selection, I just don’t see much that would (or could) be expected to run to form……. but when people start putting their hard earned cash on, well, to me that tells a completely different story…….
Hey Dave, where are you going on holiday????????

MrE

[dave jay]

I’m going away this Friday .. hopefully, sunny Yorkshire for a week, we are taking a canoe ..

[Artemis]

Mr E,

I agree with you about getting in tune with the market – where the money is going. It’s like watching a play: we are swayed by what the different characters are saying, but if we step outside of this dialogue, we can usually see where the plot is going and what is actually happening.

I believe there are three aspects to the betting market. First, there is the form money which flows from all the available information, newspaper tips, tipping lines etc. Secondly, there is the hedging money which flows into the market from small bookmakers around the country to limit their losses and from the major firms(usually on favourites) to manipulate prices to increase their margins. The third aspect is the one to be interested in from a systems point of view.

It is movements in price that cannot be explained by the first two aspects.
In other words, it is an indicator of inside knowledge. If we can strip away price changes caused by known factors, we are left with very useful information that can only come from those who know more than we ever can about the wellbeing of a horse. Isolating this information and using it profitably is not easy, but there are people out there doing it. It would be interesting to know how they do it.

[Bricoman]

Morning Gents,

Today’s Bet:

4.00 Ling (4) Marozi (RP f/c 5/4F) (My Odds 3.35) (12/5)…Not matched yet

Have to keep an eye on the n/r’s (if they arise) and revise my odds to suit…as well as get some shuteye.

It is true to say, with my present system…I’m spending more time looking for value and less time looking for winners…if my price doesn’t get matched..who cares..I live to fight another day….

How many banks do you know that would pay you 38% interest for borrowing your money for 9 days?

Regards

Brico

[Bricoman]

Never got a look-in today…Got up 1/2 an hour before the off and 3.35 had not been taken…n/r declared @ 15:49 with a reduction factor of 0%…Checked my spreadsheet and revised my odds down to 3.15 (every horse as a chance in my book)…all the time I was watching the odds on BF slipping away from me…getting shorter and shorter…then @ 16:01 another n/r declared with 0% R.F….back to my spreadsheet…got the revised odds of 3.00..by this time I was just going through the motions knowing that the race was about to start at any second…returned back to BF and the game was over…race had begun. (WON 1/2F @ SP)…If you beat that price you gained VALUE….

July Stats (Update):

Betting@SP: 22 bets, 45.45% s/r, 20.50% r.o.i., 9.66% r.o.o.i.

Exchange (inc comm): 18 bets, 50% s/r, 67.05% r.o.i., 38.55% r.o.o.i.

Regards

Brico

[dave jay]

A very good lesson in value here for all of us Brico and showing a way of getting it .. I think you are on the right track with this approach, you must be happy with it yourself?

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