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Telescope looked more like the real thing today and he’d have a big shout in the St Leger if he goes there. I would certainly give it a go if he were mine, although I am not entirely sure the extra distance would be right up his street. The Gordon stakes looked a muddling race at the time and the allegedly other unlucky horse besides Excess Knowledge in that one, Secret Number, turned the form around with stablemate Cap O’ Rushes in the Voltigeur today. Aiden O Brien’s Foundry ran a terrific race on only his second start and I am sure his St Leger odds will collapse on the back of that. An ideal, out of the dark blue, bookies saviour, late skinner for the ante post book!!
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Some solid but far from outstanding stayers on paper, though the time to judge the Leger winner is usually the following year.
I am very keen on Leading Light, seen it mooted that a drop in trip will be against him but in my view Ascot would not be his course at all and he did very well to win there against the bias of the pace profile. Doncaster’s longer straight will play to his strengths and qualities.
If his jockey (Joseph, I presume) can get his head in front at some point in the last 6 furlongs I don’t think anything will get past him by the line.
5 pt (out of 5) bet for me.Found one at a price – Great Hall. 40/1
Ladbrokes and SportingBet – get on.
Still in there, anyone know if intended runner?
Some solid but far from outstanding stayers on paper, though the time to judge the Leger winner is usually the following year.
I am very keen on Leading Light, seen it mooted that a drop in trip will be against him but in my view Ascot would not be his course at all and he did very well to win there against the bias of the pace profile. Doncaster’s longer straight will play to his strengths and qualities.
If his jockey (Joseph, I presume) can get his head in front at some point in the last 6 furlongs I don’t think anything will get past him by the line.
5 pt (out of 5) bet for me.leading light for me to
vf
I’ve just backed him at 20’s so I hope he is JJM. I’m still recovering from the shock of No Heretic not running in the Ebor having sweated for days not knowing if he’d get into the race, so I need something to cheer me up.
I’ve narrowed it down to two horses at this stage.
Feel Like Dancing is bred for the Leger, he certainly gets the trip, and he seems like the sort of horse that will improve.
Cap O’Rushes beat Excess Knowledge at Goodwood, which is a positive in itself, and I think he didn’t run his race at York. He’s also being bigged up by Godolphin.
Of the rest, Galileo Rock is too short, I’m a touch worried about Libertarian not having a prep run, and the rest all seem to fall apart slightly when you have a proper look.
So, yeah, I’m on Feel Like Dancing and Cap O’Rushes (both each way).
FLD
Twitter=@PGHenn
So don't run, just like the others always do
I’ve narrowed it down to two horses at this stage.
Feel Like Dancing is bred for the Leger, he certainly gets the trip, and he seems like the sort of horse that will improve.
Cap O’Rushes beat Excess Knowledge at Goodwood, which is a positive in itself, and I think he didn’t run his race at York. He’s also being bigged up by Godolphin.
Of the rest, Galileo Rock is too short, I’m a touch worried about Libertarian not having a prep run, and the rest all seem to fall apart slightly when you have a proper look.
So, yeah, I’m on Feel Like Dancing and Cap O’Rushes (both each way).
FLD
Feel like dancing is out. Barzelona has chosen Cap o Rushes above libertarian (who clearly isnt exciting anybody). I have no strong opinions on this race.
SHL
Great early shout on Excess Knowledge Steve, looked a real Leger horse today, with Gosden’s record in the race he looks to have a serious chance, took 12’s today but you must feel a tad smug on 33’s now?!
Happy with my 12’s on Excess Knowledge, good luck Steve with your 33’s and come back to the forum ffs!
Libertarian
looks the type to improve over this distance and is bred to appreciate both the trip and rain-softened ground. His dam has produced Bigzam (listed winner on soft ground over one mile-five), Ned Buntline (highly promising novice hurdler / winner over two miles on soft ground) and Zed Candy – a successful staying chaser on soft ground.
He found just one too good in the Epsom Derby – form that entitles him to the greatest respect – and Godolphin know the type required to excel in the St Leger. William Buick, who has enjoyed success with Arctic Cosmos and Masked Marvel in this contest, takes the ride.
His last effort was slightly disconcerting, but he had never encountered ground that fast before and it’s not uncommon for a colt to run flat after Epsom.
Leading Light
boasts Group 3 victories over both one mile-two and two miles. He has won in testing conditions before and, like their illustrious rivals, connections know the time of day when it comes to this race.
Libertarian.
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Why Joseph has chosenLeading Light
is beyond me. Winner of 2 mile Queens Vase at Royal Ascot. Not going as well as handicapper Royal Skies three out before that one failed to stay, and only outstayed Feels Like Dancing close home. Latter would’ve been a second string for Gosden here. Leading Light now comes back in trip. Too slow for me and best form so far on quicker ground. I’d have at least four of these ahead of Leading Light if I were pricing them up. Before jockey bookings bookmakers had the two Ballydoyle horses at the same price. Fact
Foundry
is the stable neglected and Ladbrokes are fielding against him (Mike Dillon has an ear to Coolmore) – is a bit of a negative. But Ryan Moore has a good record when booked for a classic by this team. With only two races to his name and already not far off the best middle-distance/staying three year olds. Impressive on very soft ground only start as a juvenile. 1¼ lengths 2nd to Telescope in Voltigeur only three year old start on a sounder surface. If Sir Michael’s horse had gone for this he’d be favourite. Not absolutely certain to stay on the dam’s side of pedigree, but by Galileo and staying on at York. 7/1 is too big to ignore.
Galileo Rock
is thought by his trainer better on firmer ground. True it was firm at the Curragh (2nd in Irish Derby) but there is not much between that run and 3rd at Epsom where if anything on the soft side. Has a rounded action too which should be suited by give underfoot and won maiden by 7 lengths on soft. Half-brother to Saddlers Rock and sure to stay, has the best form in the book. Everything sounds great for his chance today, not surprised he’s favourite but there are a lot of improvers just behind Galileo Rock. Would not be surprised to see him placed in another Classic.
Excess Knowledge
was named after TAPK. Should have won the Gordon Stakes; muddling pace, got behind, rider dropped reigns. Trainer has a great record in the race. Bred to get the trip, dam stayed well and from a stamina family. Excess Knowledge is half-brother to 1½m winner who was by a stallion with a shorter stamina index. German sire Monsun a staying influence and possibly more importantly today most of his stock seem to like soft ground. Excess Knowledge has no form on a soft surface. Improving at 1½m and should step up a lot for this trip, so 5/1 looks generous.
Talent
may have been a little flattered in the Oaks. Dropped out in a strongly run race. That said, she did win a Classic looking as though stamina is her strong-suit. Going away at the line. Appeared not to act on firmer ground in the Irish version, also took a keen hold. Will need to settle better but sometimes horses don’t travel. So that run well worth discounting. Stable could be in better form. Certainly one with a chance and positive market move a good sign, though not one for me.
Another who ran an awful race in Ireland is
Libertarian
. I’d already backed him @ 6/1 for the Leger after Epsom. Stayed on really well to be 2nd in an average Derby. Curragh a lot firmer and hasn’t the action for it. Like to forgive him for that, could come back to form on this surface. However, stable are talking down his chances, apparently showed nothing at home for a new stable, Charlie Appleby. Ex-trainer says that’s just how Libertarian is. But am I wrong? Seem to remember Burke saying Libertarian was entered in the Dante because of home work. Libertarian did shout Leger after Epsom and there could still be more improvement; but if I was not already on he’d only be a saver bet, and that’s @ 8/1.
Can’t really see any of the others as value outsiders/figuring.
Cap Orushes
did beat Excess Knowledge but had the run of the race there. Highly unlikely to confirm the form unless it’s slowly run. Can’t think Ballydoyle will allow that as Leading Light would have no chance at all under those conditions. Ran poorly last time at York. Team Godolphin seem keener on him than Libertarian. To me, there’s nothing in the way he races that suggests will improve significantly at this trip. Godolphin’s third string has his supporters today, Bin Surror currently in better nick than Appleby. However,
Secret Number
has already outstayed his breeding. Doubtful stayer, by 8-10 furlong horse Raven’s Pass from a female speed family. If he can’t beat the lightly raced Foundry in the Voltigeur (½ length behind) can’t see Secret Number doing so over this trip.
I’ll be walking over
Great Hall
(footpath) in my village later. Be unkind to say Great Hall needs a walk over to win here. Still has potential to improve and proven at this trip if not ground. Needs to find a lot on handicap form to figure here.
Havana Gold
is better than last of 7 in Gordon Stakes suggests, but beaten in worse races than this and more exposed than most.
Forget
Ralston Road
, will do well to avoid last position.
Although this has an open look to it, there are plenty of horses who could improve significantly and an average St Leger on paper may be a cracking one come 4:00pm.
Value Is EverythingNice write up Ginger.
What price do you have on Leading Light?
I’d want better than 7/1 THM!
Watch him scoot up now.
Value Is EverythingNice write up Ginger.
What price do you have on Leading Light?
I’d want better than 7/1 THM!
Watch him scoot up now.Was always going to happen after that
I was right, he did "scoot up".
Obviously more lazy than one paced, had more speed than I thought THM.
Value Is Everything
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