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MarkTT the training operation seems to be collapsing.No matter what you do,whether buying yearlings,breeding them or buying two year olds to train,if the training function is inadequate they will not recover.Would suggest the Sheikh keep away from the training side or distribute his horses around various trainers.That works for the Aga Khan. Coolmore have a solid training function and that works for them.
Looking at the betting for the race today shows the normal mix of Derby winners and placed horses at the head of the market. Galileo Rock is generally favourite but he obviously has his limitations and the trainer maintains he is best on fast ground, despite him having won on softish. The ground will also be a worry for Trading Leather and he also would have a concern regarding the trip I feel. O’Brien has the usual portfolio of entrants but there are trip concerns on most of these, with Battle Of Marengo running out of puff the last twice, Ruler Of The World having been mooted for a drop in trip and Mars having tried more trips than The Rolling Stones in the 1960’s. That leaves Leading Light as their most solid candidate and he’s certainly got the stamina but does he really have the necessary class dropping down in trip? Injury victims Kingsbarns and Telescope are reasonably prominent in the betting still, given their setbacks but it would be a mighty feat for either of them to win. Michael Stoute’s Hillstar cashed in when Battle Of Marengo’s fuel gauge hit empty at Ascot and he obviously has improvement to come but he’s short enough and may be flattered in winning a race that didn’t look like a great renewal. Most of the rest of the field are Oaks participants and the form of the race has looked weak this year so I’m putting a line through them for that reason.
Right, with that said I am looking for a punt at a big price and we may have seen a candidate this week. John Gosden’s Excess Knowledge made his seasonal debut in a strong looking listed race at Sandown on Friday on ground that was fast enough and a trip a little short of what will be ideal. He was tickled in from 16/1 to 10/1 and stayed on really well for third after being outpaced. He managed to finish ahead of Van Der Neer in the process and gave me the impression that staying will be his game and 12f or more his optimum trip. The next stop for him is pencilled in as the Great Voltigeur at York and he may well clash with Hillstar and others there. That would seem a reasonable stepping stone to the St Leger and Gosden has been very successful there in recent seasons. I am banking on improvement for the step up in trip and with maturity but he may become a player and he is available at 25/1 so he is my sporting selection ante post in the hope that he makes it there in one piece for the normal depleted line-up.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Stan James have introduced Excess Knowledge into their book at 33/1 so I’m sticking a few quid on there instead, as Bet 365 are the only other firm quoting him at the moment and they are 25/1.
Maybe he won’t get there, maybe he won’t be good enough but seriously, can anyone say Talent at 6/1 is good value given the tattered looking Oaks form? Battle Of Marengo is a joke price at 10/1 for a horse who doesn’t stay and doesn’t have the scope of his Ascot conqueror Hillstar either.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I’d like Godolphin to train some good horses instead of buying ones from smaller stables.
They’re like a Chelsea who finish 4th or 5th every year and win the odd league cup.
I suppose Burke is a small stable but Johnston certainly isn’t…
I’d like Godolphin to train some good horses instead of buying ones from smaller stables.
They’re like a Chelsea who finish 4th or 5th every year and win the odd league cup.
I suppose Burke is a small stable but Johnston certainly isn’t…
I said smaller stables – i realise most are but they’ve been trying this for several years and it hasn’t been a success
Seems they’ve tried to buy into Bolger’s breeding and training regime so i had to laugh when Jim won the Irish Derby with his " other " horse.
Most of their horses appear to be by sires better known for sprinters to milers, and many of their three year olds reach the end of the classic campaign with no more than 2 or 3 runs in their whole career.
Somethings not right at all.If they have one horse to go to war with next year, that i’ve seen, at middle distances it might by Emirates Galloper.
Stan James have cut Excess Knowledge in to 16/1. That must be my 20p each way that caused that
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
43 entries for The St Leger and some notable absentees.
As I expected some of the ridiculously priced candidates are no longer in the picture. Ruler Of The World, Mars, Kingsbarns, Trading Leather, Telescope and King George runner Hillstar have not been entered, although, somewhat bizarrely the mooted "non-stayer" Battle Of Marengo
is
amongst the entries.
My long range fancy Excess Knowledge is one of three entries for John Gosden, who has been very successful in this classic in recent seasons.
Ralph Beckett has entered both Secret Gesture and Talent but it seems hard to fancy either given the Oaks form and for that reason I would tend to discount Michael Stoute’s Liber Nauticus in what has been his bogey classic anyway.
Looking at the betting now it is headed by a horse(Galileo Rock) placed in two Derbies but who has only won a maiden race so far. Trading Leather might give us an idea of what The Irish Derby form is worth in the King George on Saturday but the English Derby looks pretty ropey to say the least after pitiful efforts by Ruler Of The World and Libertarian at the Curragh. Galileo Rock has been put forward by his trainer as being best on fast ground, therefore would you really want to take as low as 7/2 on him? Leading Light is a guaranteed stayer but he doesn’t hold Gosden’s Feel Like Dancing by much, and will the shorter trip be ideal for him? Libertarian will need to bounce back from the Curragh like a bungee jumper to be a serious contender for the Leger and I think he’s skinny at as low as 7/1
With John Gosden in better form as the season progresses and all things considered, I still think Excess Knowledge is being ignored as a serious contender and I am going to double my bet at 25/1 (widely available) with Leading Light as a saver at 7/1
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I’ve been told that Liber Nauticus is still very highly rated at the yard. I was expecting the horse to make an appearance at Goodwood next week but there’s no listing in tues/weds decs. Might be worth keeping an eye out for her next race though.
Hammy, I am not sure Liber Nauticus quite got home in the Oaks. Obviously she is lightly raced and she has the physique to improve but the Oaks form looks really poor in retrospect.
Excess Knowledge is down to a best price of 16/1 now and as low as 12/1
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Hammy, I am not sure Liber Nauticus quite got home in the Oaks. Obviously she is lightly raced and she has the physique to improve but the Oaks form looks really poor in retrospect.
Excess Knowledge is down to a best price of 16/1 now and as low as 12/1
You might be correct Steve. (I can’t claim to have taken much notice of her performance in the race.) The vibe I’ve had from the yard though is that she simply didn’t handle Epsom itself. I’m not sure the Leger is a serious target for her but I think they’re still expecting big things from this horse. I guess time will tell.
Excess Knowledge is entered in the Gordon Stakes on Wednesday and is 9/4 fav with Paddy Power, the only firm so far offering odds. This should give a guide as to whether the ante post tickets go under the lucky clown, or in the the old swing bin!!
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Great early shout on Excess Knowledge Steve, looked a real Leger horse today, with Gosden’s record in the race he looks to have a serious chance, took 12’s today but you must feel a tad smug on 33’s now?!
Great early shout on Excess Knowledge Steve, looked a real Leger horse today, with Gosden’s record in the race he looks to have a serious chance, took 12’s today but you must feel a tad smug on 33’s now?!
Cheers, I am happy with the odds but disappointed he couldn’t win today. A poor effort from Buick in the saddle. Knowing he was on a horse who is all about staying, he held him in behind off what John Gosden later called "no pace". The horse came with a long, steady run the time before to be third behind older horses at Sandown and Buick should have been alive to the fact that he could not afford any interference on this horse, who clearly needs time to build his full momentum in a race.
Although he was arguably unlucky today and was cut in by all firms afterwards, I am actually less confident about the Leger now. He only has his maiden debut in the win column and although the step up in trip will probably help it seems that everything will need to go smoothly for him in the Classic, as he doesn’t have the tactical pace to overcome any mishaps that may occur. With William Buick on board you couldn’t be too bullish that things will go smoothly and I think he’s plenty short enough now at as low as 7/1.
He’ll reportedly either go straight to the Leger or take in The Great Voltigeur on the way.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Quite impressed with Retirement Plan yesterday. It was only a handicap but it looked quite a competitive race with several potential improvers. I liked the bit of early pace he showed to take a position and the way he saw off the challengers in the straight, eventually extending in the final furlong to win with what looked a fair bit in hand. Looks as if he should stay although his dam stayed a trip as a juvenile but subsequently didn’t stay any further.
As for the Cap O’Rushes/Excess Knowledge race I wouldn’t be surprised if the places were confirmed at Doncaster. The winner looked a stayer and appeared to win despite the lack of pace.
Team Gosden were all smiles and laughter before the race on Wednesday but John face after was different and painted a picture which said to me that he expected Excess Knowledge to win.
http://i40.tinypic.com/2ljq1dh.jpg
Blackbeard to conquer the World
Well at least William Buick has fessed up and admitted he rode a stinker on Excess Knowledge. Here is his Mea Culpa from his blog on ATR:-
"Excess Knowledge should have won the Gordon Stakes and I blame myself. We got tight for room on the run to two furlongs out and when I went to gather him I dropped a rein a furlong out. It happened just as he was building a head of steam and although he quickened very well in the closing stages we didn’t quite make it.
He moves like a pretty smart horse and it’s worth remembering that Arctic Cosmos was third in this before he won the St Leger three years ago. But Excess Knowledge travels better in his races and is going to be a serious player on September 14"
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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