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Yes that Newmarket-Ascot double was something I read the other day. I mean the trends make Canford Cliffs an absolute banker, but with Noble’s Promise in there and not accountable to the stats and Siyouni getting a bad run in France, it’s not something I particularly want to get too interested in.
Stats are there to be broken…
I should have said
Hopefully
at the start of that line!
I wonder what the reason is for the Newmarket-Ascot double being so rare??
Looking at the card it would seem that the winner at HQ has been off the longest – so could it be something to do with length of time since last running?
If this is the case then ‘Noble’s Promise’ might be inadvertently tied into the stats – he’s also been off the track 45 days…If time off between races (and a fitness edge) is not a factor in the lack of horses that manage to do the double then – might it be the nature of the courses?
As the Curragh is seen as the stiffer mile – then might that be a reason for ‘Canford’ beating ‘Xtension’ further in the Irish Guineas than he was beaten in the English equivalent?!
As before the English 2000 – Francome said that ‘Xtn’ looked ready to roll – so there was never going to be any progression from one Guineas to another.
Having read this – it seems as though there are doubts about ‘X’ over a mile – esp a stiff one at that!
I can totally see the logic in ‘Xtn’ going to Chantilly (where another doubtful stayer ‘Lord Shanakill’ was able to win a group race) – having had two bites at the cherry at the highest level already.
Xtension favors the Jean Prat at Ascot
Xtension, fourth and fifth of the English and Irish Guineas – in that order fails to address the meeting at Royal Ascot and the Prix Jean Prat favors (Gr.I-1600-3A) at Chantilly in early July. Naturally, the St James’ Palace Stakes (Gr.I) – English equivalent of Jean Prat –
I see this as being far more of an accurate assessment – than avoiding any one horse!
i think canford cliffs is probably a rightful favorite for this, but nobles promise is a horse i backed in last years bc juvenile and i think ascot may be right up his street if gd-fm. Also like poets voice of godolphins at a decent price e-w.
i think canford cliffs is probably a rightful favorite for this
, but nobles promise is a horse i backed in last years bc juvenile and i think ascot may be right up his street if gd-fm. Also like poets voice of godolphins at a decent price e-w.
Do you? I disagree.
Has an unbeaten 2000 Guineas winner that has already beaten his "chief rival" by the best part of a couple of lengths and doesn’t seem to be in any way disadvantaged by race conditions ever run in this race before and not started favourite? I’m not going to predict the winner but purely on a value basis Makfi is a barmy price at 5/2 surely? If he wins his backers will think Christmas has been moved to June.
If the winner of the Guineas were trained in Ireland or England would we be looking for him to get beaten? Somehow I don’t think so.Why anyone would back against him is beyond me.Until he gets beaten we should assume that he will win.
While I’ve backed Makfi and am a big fan of Steinbeck, it is an outsider who I think it may pay to side with. Arcano carried all before him as a 2yo, and maybe he can be forgiven his seasonal debut. 33/1 is much too big. I don’t think he’ll win it but he could place.
Imo newmarket 4 the 2000 guineas is best suited 2 a horse that will see out 10f. Ascot has a short run in an on a quick surface u want a horse with plenty of speed. I think canford cliff is just more of an ascot than a guineas type. And its not because mafki is french, i backed mafki in the guineas. My 2 bets here are Nobles Promise 16s and Poets Voice 50s. I would like 2 see mafki vs workforce vs twice over vs elusive pimpernel vs lope de vega in a fast ground eclipse, that would be the race of the year. Its not that i think mafki has no chance at ascot but i reckon at ascot i would have canford cliffs shorter…
My 100% Book:
Canford Cliffs 15/8, Makfi 5/2, Steinbeck 13/2
, Siyouni 9/1, Dick Turpin 13/1,
Hearts Of Fire 28/1
, Noble Promise 33/1, Beethoven 100/1, Encompassing 2000/1
Figures in bold are those I make value. Though have not backed Makfi (margin for error).
Value Is EverythingWith you all the way Ian – If Makfi was a Coolmore horse he would be odds-on. If betting, he has to be the one. Unexposed, unbeaten, any ground no problem, knows how to get his head in front.
The way all these other horses have supposedly improved since Newmarket, its as if the winner is not allowed to have done.
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Certainly a better looking contest than the Irish 2000 Guineas but I maintain Canford Cliffs is a steering job.
Hughsie would only need to be half right about Canford Cliffs being in a diffeent league to Dick Turpin to make Matfi a fairly ordinary Guineas winner.
Def my bet of the meeting
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With you all the way Ian – If Makfi was a Coolmore horse he would be odds-on. If betting, he has to be the one. Unexposed, unbeaten, any ground no problem, knows how to get his head in front.
The way all these other horses have supposedly improved since Newmarket, its as if the winner is not allowed to have done.
Dubawi doesn’t stand at Coolmore nor has his trainer had the expierance of Aidan O’Brien in dealing with preperations for Group races every month for last 10 years during flat season.
The Coolmore horses are bred to be champions its in their mind, body and soul thats why they’re odds on, we’ve got a little French horse from obscurity don’t make out its a world beater please.
Much will depend on the ground but dick turpin would be my fav if good ground. Makfi and lope de vega are my favorite horses of the season so far but in my mind backing anything at 5-2 it has to nailed on and in my mind makfi is not.
Its horses running as fast as they can Mr. Wilson – and the "little french horse" did that better than anything else in THE Guineas.
The fact you felt it neccessary to mention where the horse is trained, plus the rather pointless adjective "little", proves my point really.
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…to make Makfi a fairly ordinary Guineas winner…
So a thrice-raced, unbeaten classic winner, who boasts a comfortable victory over both a French Guineas runner-up (whose conqueror has since won the French Derby) and a subsequent Irish Guineas winner, is ordinary on the as yet unsubstantiated word of Richard Hughes?
A quick summary to gather my own thoughts
I have deliberately avoided taking in media reports from interviews with connections.
I will start with team O’Brien. With 3 out of 9 you can dictate tactics, pace, if you want.
Steinbeck
I can’t have that Steinbeck is a miler. As a second crop sire Footstepsinthesand’s awd figures are, though rising, still artificially low. As a Giant’s Causeway Rainbow Quest cross the progeny median will eventually be around the 10 mark. The second damsire is Grundy – enormous stamina influence. Whilst the third damsire is Major Portion who, though the champion 3 year old miler in England of 1958, is nevertheless quite stoutely bred; the fourth is Ribot joint Arc winner of 1955 and 1956. Steinbeck has the highest speed-stamina index (SSI) figure in the race (meaning it has most stamina) and it looks to me all ends up likely better over 1m2f plus.
Beethoven
On the first two lines of the pedigree you’d say the same of Beethoven. But it does have some influence for speed on the dam’s side (Raise a Native, Bold Lad). Third highest SSI in the race, you’d expect it to get 1m2f eventually as Dewhurst winners tend to. Take a pause there – a Dewhust winner at 100/1 in a SJP. When did that last happen? Remember I’ve avoided any press content and no doubt the vibes are bad? I could understand that because I recall the sire Oratorio as a gross type who needed runs to get to peak condition. I know not if he imparts that physicality to his progeny in general or Beethoven in particular, but if it did look in the paddock like they’d got enough work into him at home 100/1 would be a stupid price. As an Oratorio/Sadlers Wells/Irish River there’s no doubt on pedigree that such a horse would progress at 3.
Encompassing
We all learnt, again, in the Derby that an AOB ‘pacemaker’ isn’t necessarily going to go out like a light and finish last. Second highest SSI. Surely in the Irish Guineas it didn’t ‘weaken’ – it’s a Montjeu!
, rather it was run off it’s feet?So Ballydoyle holds all the stamina in the race. As is often the case. Surely they have to go licketysplit and ensure a strong pace. A dawdle that turns into a sprint is unquestionably not in their interests.
The order of presenting the rest of the field is in order of descending SSI.
Makfi
I take on board what someone said back in the thread about the paucity of the Newmarket/Ascot double. I was with Makfi in the guineas. You want a 1m2f bred sort there and it just qualified on SSI. The same is not true on the stats by the time of the SJP. 3yo colts develop fast into the summer. It’s rare that the Guineas is run on a faster surface than the SJP. Also, with more than 30 days between Newmarket and Ascot you’d prefer to see something come out of the Irish or the French. It’s a test not only of the horse but the trainer. Still Makfi is unbeaten and there’s absolutely no reason to suppose he’s not as progressive as any other candidate. Around 3’s is a fair price but no real value therefore.
Dick Turpin
A good bet for the frame. If I could get 5/2 the place I’d take an interest but it’s not that long. A touch of value at 8s in my book but not much.
Canford Cliffs
CC can be said to have improved for learning to settle and apparently having stopped hanging. Only just bred for the mile I coudn’t have it at newmarket but you can’t fail to be impressed with the manner of victory at the Curragh. Too short in my book though. Lack of stamina could still be exposed by a very strong pace.
Nobles Promise
Seems to just stay out the mile on stateside form but on the first 2 lines of pedigree I couldn’t understand why it would as it looks, on that evidence, like it should be a sprinter. But the second damsire won a Breeders Cup classic, the third is Nijinsky and the fourth traces back to a heavy influence for stamina. So it is a miler. Conquerer of Beethoven on 2yo form albeit on home soil, a formline with Lookin at Lucky suggests it’s not gone backwards. Around 20s looks like some value to me. It’s a long way to come and yes the Am
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