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Mr.Wilson: MAKFI (96.47)
96.47 Newmarket 8 furlongs (1.98/Good to Firm)
The French horse that shocked us all at the 2000 Guineas has ever reason to be favourite here but I am just wondering how he’ll be going around right handed and his jockey Christophe Lemaire is 1-24 at Ascot in the last 5 years which given he’s given decent rides when coming over is quite a bad return and with Richard Hughes admitting he could have got Canford Cliffs alight sooner in the 2000 Guineas I am willing to let Makfi go those braver backers than me .Great preview of the race Mr.Wilson, but I’d just like to point out that Olivier Peslier will be taking the reins on Makfi, as Lemaire is riding Siyouni.
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I wouldn’t be so sure that Canford Cliffs is capable of reversing Newmarket form with Makfi, or even with Dick Turpin.
The Irish 2000 Guineas wasn’t a great race and whilst Canford Cliffs won impressively, Xtension didn’t run up to his best and Viscount Nelson actually finished three lengths closer than he had done at the start of May. Given that the winner travelled every bit as well at Newmarket as he did at the Curragh, I’d be surprised if he improved all that much (the only difference was he settled better on the latter occasion).
Makfi is less experienced than Canford Cliffs, won easily at Newmarket and will arguably benefit more from the likely strong pace (courtesy of Dick Turpin presumably) than his market rivals.
The French colt is a certainty for this as far as I can see, with Canford Cliffs the best lay of the meeting.
I’m suprised people are able to be so definite in their assessment of the form. One of these horses has run 3 times and this is arguably one of the strongest fields put in the St James Palace Stakes. Steinbeck and Beethoven are running also and Steinbeck ought to come on for hs reappearance and Beethoven was lit up by the visor last 2 times and ran creditabley in America with no medication.
Arcano is coming back and has to be considered despited and interupted preparation. He did beat a dual guineas winner in Special Duty – however much that form looks hazy with the filly being awarded the races.
Shakespearean made a very imressive reappearance giving weight away all round and also must be considered.
I know some of these will be put in their place by Wednesday but on the face of it they are all three year olds and may not have shown their best yet in some cases. Most times its as straight forward as it looks but I don’t think this one is.
Good luck with your selections.
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The Irish 2000 Guineas wasn’t a great race and whilst Canford Cliffs won impressively, Xtension didn’t run up to his best and Viscount Nelson actually finished three lengths closer than he had done at the start of May.
Xtension’s trainer apparently thinks he ran to his best – enough to say afterwards
"We will probably avoid Canford Cliffs and I would hope we might go to France for the Prix Jean Prat at Chantilly in July."
Viscount Nelson finished 3l closer by virtue of not rearing up in the stalls and giving the rest a start, no doubt aided by the addition of first-time blinkers (in which he also went on to finish the same distance behind another very good horse in Lope De Vega).
You sure it wasn’t a great race. AJ?
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I assume you’re posting from a betting-funded hill-top mansion in California, reet hard? You’re awfully cocky if not.
My opinion is that Xtension did not run up to his Newmarket form in the Irish 2000 Guineas – forgive me for not swallowing whatever Clive Cox says – and as a result I doubt very much whether Canford Cliffs had to improve to win.
If I’m wrong, so be it, but let’s cut the patronising attitude shall we?
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Not cocky, AJ – just confident enough not to let others get suckered into "certainties" and "lays of the meeting" that have little foundation in the form book.
With Dick Turpin Jersy Stakes bound, the road to victory for Canford Cliffs becomes less difficult than it would have been.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
SIYOUNI
(86.72)
86.10 Longchamp 8 furlongs (3.73/Firm)
86.18 Longchamp 8 furlongs (1.82/Good to Firm)
89.48 Longchamp 7 furlongs (4.38/Hard)
Another horse who looks like having a preferences for a bit of cut and Siyouni has failed to improve over the winter with two runs that have produced exact replicas of his 2 year old ratings which I am afraid he’s just be surpassed by better horses now, I do think he’ll have better chances when stepped up to 10 furlongs on softer ground in his own country.
"The horse has wintered well and he feels fantastic with a great action."
GERALD MOSSE
"The colt came through the winter in good order. He has had enough work but not too much for this race (Fontainebleau)."
ALAIN DE ROYER-DUPRE
Hard to judge the horse after just two efforts this term, Mr.Wilson.
He was far from fully wound up for his seasonal debut when runner-up in the Fontainebleau (Lope De Vega third) and he had no luck in the Poule d’Essai des Poulains.
His performance in the Jean Luc-Lagardere, and subsequent form of the race, gives him every chance on Tuesday. He had Pounced (Breeders’ Cup Juvenile), Lope De Vega (dual Classic winner), Dick Turpin (dual Classic placed) and Beethoven (Dewhurst) all behind him that day and he beat them convincingly:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e0v8udvQZco
This horse is all about speed (three times winner over five furlongs) and I don’t think he’d stay too much further – ten furlongs could well be stretching it.
His action certainly doesn’t suggest he wants it too soft. I actually think he may well improve with quicker ground.
The trainer seemed very bullish on ATR today and fancies his chances.
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Fair enough if you look at it like that but I deal with what the horse has actually done on the track and he’s had 8 runs to run a figure in the high 90’s yet he hasn’t achieved that and you’re asking a horse to do something he can’t which isn’t my sort of bet, at 7-1 he is the stand out lay and the more the French talk the more people will back him which suits me too the ground.
I take on board the points you make and you put together a good argument, but im not sure what more I can say? will you be backing Siyouni?
^^I was on at 10/1 (mentioned it in the Irish 2000 Guineas thread). Arcano is certainly the most interesting runner in the field and would have a massive chance on his Prix Morny win (two Classic winners behind). He’s by Oasis Dream, who can sire good middle distance performers (Midday), by a Daylami mare – I wouldn’t mind seeing Arcano over ten furlongs. The Champion Stakes could be ideal.^^
I’ve been a huge fan of Canford Cliffs and supported him in both Guineas, but will he be as effective on a round course? There’s nothing to suggest he won’t be, but I have a niggling doubt…or maybe I’m just looking for a reason to oppose a short-priced favourite.
Makfi being readily opposed by the majority, I see. An unbeaten, well bred Classic winner being underestimated? Didn’t we learn our lesson last time? What price would he be if trained by Andre Fabre and owned by Khalid Abdullah?
With Dick Turpin Jersy Stakes bound, the road to victory for Canford Cliffs becomes less difficult than it would have been.
Thats my Ante-Post wager down the pan then! Still if
Arcano
runs then 50/1 is huge,particularly when you see he has beaten the 6/4fav and the dual 1000gns winner already! I am prepared to take a chance that he runs at that price!
I’m suprised people are able to be so definite in their assessment of the form.
Good luck with your selections.
So am I Nulty!
It seems that many are happy to quote form from last year, form from trials, form where the distances are quite minute, form of just one or two from a particular race so that it suits their particular stance…
I have a feeling though that many are using stats from years gone by and are putting total faith in those – ‘cos there don’t look to be a lot between any of the principle runners…
They might not be wrong either as the stats are strong!
Before anyone gets too excited! – I’m not knocking what anyone has said – each viewpoint is as valid as the next…
I’ve changed my mind about Canford Cliffs. I think he’ll win but there are too many imponderables. Noble’s Promise could make all and Siyouni should fit the stats but doesn’t because he never got a run in the Poulains.
SIYOUNI
(86.72)
86.10 Longchamp 8 furlongs (3.73/Firm)
86.18 Longchamp 8 furlongs (1.82/Good to Firm)
89.48 Longchamp 7 furlongs (4.38/Hard)
Another horse who looks like having a preferences for a bit of cut and Siyouni has failed to improve over the winter with two runs that have produced exact replicas of his 2 year old ratings which I am afraid he’s just be surpassed by better horses now, I do think he’ll have better chances when stepped up to 10 furlongs on softer ground in his own country.
What are on earth are those ground descriptions? They can’t be anything else. And Siyouni needs cut but probably won that 7f (or more like 6 1/2f) Group 1 on Arc day, which I’d take it that’s what the 7f race is, that has the word Hard beside it. If you know they’ve all improved past a horse who was murdered in the French Guineas, you know more than anyone else.
Now I think that you’re reading/using the stats Zar!
Re: ‘Siyouni’ he wouldn’t be the first to have not run any sort of a race in the French Guineas – ‘Tamayuz’ also flopped but came out later to win a G1…
ok trends wise – it wasn’t at Ascot!
Ah he never had a chance. He was completely blocked-in, was basically a canter round. He’s beaten Lope de Vega twice before that and no way did Lope improve 20-odd pounds between the Fontainebleau and the Poulains.
Some stats – pointers:
Since ’82 – only ‘Rock Of Gibraltar’ & ‘Henrythenavigator’ have completed the Newmarket-Ascot double.
Look for horses that had their last run in Ireland or France – all of the winners share that distinction going back to ’98.
Runners from the Irish 2000 Guineas have a good record with 8 wins from the past 12 and only ‘Zafeen’ was out of the first two in the Curragh Classic.
This is not a race for outsiders as ‘Excellent Art’ 8/1 back in ’07 was only fourth in the betting.
If either of the first two from the Irish 2000 Guineas turn up, they must form the basis of any shortlist.Stats are there to be broken…
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