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ryanair? anyway the point remains, you never know what is going to come out and challenge in the future, or indeed what might happen to sprinter sacre.
after all those with short memories might recall that master minded was expected to win about 10 champion chases in a row after he hacked up in his first one. what happened to him?
He won another one. Then they campaigned him at 2 1/2 miles, then they tried him at three!
Mike
Following hot in the hoofsteps of Frankel’s being rated the best flat horse in the experience of the boys from Halifax, we are now informed that Sprinter Sacre is the best steeplechaser since Arkle and Flyingbolt. Yep: beating Wishfull Thinking by 25l apparently elevates Sprinter Sacre above Mill House, Desert Orchid, Carvill’s Hill, Kauto Star and all the rest.
Whilst there is no doubt that the sky remains the limit for the Moulds’ tremendous ‘chaser, is trouncing a has-been and lots of never-will-bes really deserving of such a lofty rating? And, more to the point, are Timeform now just elevating ratings for publicity purposes?
I own every edition of <i>Chasers & Hurdlers</i> and every <i>Racehorses</i> annual going back to 1970 and I’ve noticed what I consider to be headline generating ratings creeping in over the last decade or so. I’ll continue to buy Timeform’s annuals as a historical reference but can’t help but feel that their ratings have to be taken with a pinch of salt from now on.
Am I alone in this or does anybody else agree?
I feel that there is some fault in your question there. You say that Sprinter Sacre "trounced a has-been". Although Sizing Europe is now 11, he has shown very little sign of decline through his season in Ireland. He has been running consistently to marks over 170.
A better question would be whether beating a reliable horse rated 171 by 19 lengths on the bridle is worthy of this rating? To me, that is easily worthy of 190+ without much debate.
I accept that Sizing Europe did take that stumble on the home turn and tried to match strides with the winner, so it might be fair to say he ran to a few pounds lower than his best. Even so, it seems as though the Timeform rating is conservative if anything.
Sizing Europe has been running to around 170++ pretty much every race for the last two years. Not sure whether you class him as a ‘has-been’ or a ‘never-been’, but beating him 19 lengths looks fair enough form to me.
I’m not a ratings bod but my guesstimate whould be 192 looks pretty reasonable.
Mike
Sizing Europe isn’t the horse who drags down the rating. Is Wishfull Thinking really a 167 horse?
I can see your point. I don’t think Wishful Thinking is a 167 horse.
However the problem is everyone seems scared of taking him on.
He can only beat what is put in front of him.
I am not sure Sizing Europe ran to his best and the rest as you say are not quite up to top class.
It is a shame that Flemenstar did not come over but may take him on at Punchestown and I still think that Cue Card against him would be a hell of a race and then we would see if he was a true star.
I know he beat Cue Card last year but had to be ridden out to do so but I think Cue Card is a miles better horse this year.
Hopefully all 3 will meet.
Now that would be race to savour.
As for Timeform well I don’t like them anyway. Overpriced for what you get.
I saw an awful lot of their racecards thrown on the floor at Cheltenham this year. I wonder why? LOLWinners who win by long distances are difficult to rate. A few of the most controversial figures concern horses whose ratings are reliant largely on one spectacular performance (Celtic Swing, Hawk Wing to name two).
But I think it is hard to argue with that Sprinter Sacre rating. You could argue all day about whether Sizing Europe ran to his peak. But one thing that is pretty much undeniable is that Sprinter Sacre could have won by considerably further so, in some respects, the rating looks thoroughly justified and the p conservative.
Regarding the PR potential of a big rating. I think Timeform understand the value of their integrity so I very strongly doubt that there is any commercial pressure to hike ratings. But they are clearly attuned to the demand for an ‘instant’ rating and the consequent PR opportunity following a big race. Nothing wrong with that though. They are in the business of selling their publications.
Horses like Cue Card, Al Ferof, their form ties in with Sprinter Sacre…
Cue Card two time Grade 1 winner and 9l winner of the Ryanair. Narrowly beaten by Bobs Worth giving him weight, now a GC winner.
Al Ferof of a burden weight pounded horses into submission in the Paddy Power.
Menorah to some extent also winning the Peterborough (I’d forget his Cheltenham run and most of Hobbs horses at the festival tbh.
I think Sprinter Sacre deserves his rating also, OR is 188 so BHA think highly of him also, the last season novices best I have ever seen but then again I’m fairly young.
I hope Ginger doesn’t see this
Funny; I had him in mind when I posted the thread.
I fear that some people are missing the general point of this thread and focusing too much on the specific case of Sprinter Sacre. Even though I think that his rating isn’t quite justified, although I have him running to 185 on my ratings, this thread is more about the creeping upwards of Timeform ratings over the last ten to fifteen years, culminating in the state we have now where Harbinger, Sea The Stars and Frankel have all been rated 140 or higher in recent years and numerous jumpers have reached 168 or more, which was previously hallowed ground.
Perhaps the breed is just getting progressively better on a more consistent basis, Gladiateur. I agree with you in general and think that some ratings published after seemingly brilliant wins are a little too reactive. Timeform (and other groups) should swallow their pride and amend ratings once explanations come out and history shows they were probably wrong. It is hard to argue with Frankel and Sprinter Sacre’s consistent destruction of reliable top-class yardsticks, though.
Kauto Star’s 2009 King George, Harbinger’s King George and Master Minded’s first Champion Chase are the most obvious examples of ratings that need amending.
Reasons have come out for beaten horses (Workforce, Voy Por Ustedes) and some beaten ones went on to show they were beginning a downgrade (Madison Du Berlais, Barbers Shop). Timeform should take this new information and say "actually, we cocked up here" and fix their errors.
It’s entirely possible that breeding is producing better (although maybe more fragile) horses and advances in training, nutrition and science are improving their abilities. It is the case with human and horse racing that records keep getting broken. So maybe general advancement is giving higher figures.
I hope Ginger doesn’t see this
I myself have not always agreed with Timeform ratings Ken. Indeed, only last week suggested (in hindsight) they over-rated Kauto Star.
Also thought Sprinter Sacre’s Tingle Creek rating unjustified; though did say I expected him to improve later on.
Don’t have any problem with their Champion Chase rating.
Value Is EverythingI have him running to 185 on my ratings,
How did you come to the 185 rating Gladiateur?
Value Is EverythingI’d be interested to know what degree of subjectivity goes into ratings – Timeform, OR, RPR, any recognised system.
How much weighting is given to yardstick horses and how much to theorising about the merit of individual performances – 70/30? 80/20? Does it differ from race to race and if so, why?
I’d be interested to know what degree of subjectivity goes into ratings – Timeform, OR, RPR, any recognised system.
How much weighting is given to yardstick horses and how much to theorising about the merit of individual performances – 70/30? 80/20? Does it differ from race to race and if so, why?
I think from the suff I have read BHA give a lot more credence to yardstick horse and Timeform don’t like that method.
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