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Sporting Life "Sunday Best" innaccuracy

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  • #12176
    Mounty
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    • Total Posts 455

    I’ve nothing to do with the website in question but four winners from his last 24 runners is a fair return (though "good nick" rather than "really good nick" might have been more appropiate) and this 16% strike-rate beats his 10.8% average since he took over from Peter Harris.

    Still can’t have Hevelius though – he’d find trouble in a match

    #241021
    Cav
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    • Total Posts 4825

    Still can’t have Hevelius though – he’d find trouble in a match

    Spot on imo.

    The Swinburn horse are doing fine when they want to. The best angle with Walter’s horses is to only back the ones sent to the front early. Their the real buzzers from this yard, you’d have made piles from doing this over the last 18 months.

    Of course playing in-running with conventional technology is another matter entirely. :roll:

    #241023
    seabird
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    • Total Posts 2924

    Marb, I’m totally sympathetic with your point.

    The number of times you here pundits or presenters make generalisations such as "so and so’s horses always come on for a run" or "he can get one ready first time out" I want to ask where’s the evidence please. The person saying it may well be right but I feel pretty sure he/she hasn’t done any research into it.

    Colin

    #241026
    Mounty
    Member
    • Total Posts 455

    The number of times you here pundits or presenters make generalisations such as "so and so’s horses always come on for a run" or "he can get one ready first time out" I want to ask where’s the evidence please.

    Colin

    Good point but it’s not just pundits who make this mistake…some trainers are similarly guilty. Brendan Duke has often described Openide as a "7lb better horse at Cheltenham" despite the fact that he hasn’t won there since April 2005 and his last three British wins have come at Market Rasen, Stratford and Uttoxeter!

    #241030
    Mounty
    Member
    • Total Posts 455

    Still can’t have Hevelius though – he’d find trouble in a match

    Spot on imo.

    The Swinburn horse are doing fine when they want to. The best angle with Walter’s horses is to only back the ones sent to the front early. Their the real buzzers from this yard, you’d have made piles from doing this over the last 18 months.

    Of course playing in-running with conventional technology is another matter entirely. :roll:

    I’d never noticed that before. 43% of Swinburn’s winners this year made all or most of the running (nine from 21). Six tracked/chased leaders and six were held up. Fahey stats are 19%, 53% and 28%.

    #241050
    Pompete
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    • Total Posts 2391

    I’ve watched him the last month or so and on a scale of how I think he can perform of 1-10 i’d have him about five & a half recently.

    A pretty good assessment that Marb. The Racing Posts/Raceform’s TF%* has him on 62% – which I think means 62% of his runners in the last week/month(?) ran upto or above their pre-race RPR.

    I’ve always thought of this as a pretty good measure of a trainers current form as a staight comparision of strike-rates over whatever periods may throw more into the mix than perhaps is helpful.

    * Available free on the RP’s website (for now anyways)

    #241058
    Cav
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    • Total Posts 4825

    Since 1st Jan 2008, 53 of Swinburns horses have gone straight to the front, 13 have won giving a stike rate of 24.53% and a profit at BFSP of 24.07points (45% ROI)

    The winners were…..

    Date Horse SP
    11/07/2009 ….. Desert Kiss ….. 4/1
    09/07/2009 ….. Constant Cheers ….. 7/2
    17/04/2009 ….. Jordaura ….. 9/4
    08/04/2009 ….. Crown Choice ….. 8/1
    09/04/2008 ….. Greystoke Prince ….. Evens
    17/07/2009 ….. Play It Sam ….. 6/1
    18/04/2009 ….. Staying On ….. 9/2
    30/05/2009 ….. Rathlin Light ….. 5/2
    05/05/2008 ….. Staying On ….. 9/1
    24/05/2008 ….. Staying On ….. 6/1
    06/08/2008 ….. Perfect Citizen ….. 15/8
    21/04/2009 ….. Champagne Future ….. 4/1
    21/05/2009 ….. Antinori ….. 100/30

    With his runners who dont front run he’s just over 9% and almost 164 points down at BFSP! Big, big difference. Wont touch it without fast pics though.

    #245277
    Cav
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    • Total Posts 4825

    Since putting that up ^^^^^^ 4 of Swinburns horses have gone straight to the front

    17/7 – Streets Apart 2nd @ 12/1
    17/7 – Play It Sam 1st @ 6/1 …..7.85/1 BFSP
    7/8 – Rehabilitation 4th @ 20/1
    12/8 – Streets Apart 3rd @ 6/1

    #255589
    Cav
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4825

    This inplay "goldmine" continues to pay handsomely for its followers.

    The return to BFSP now up to almost 60% since Jan 2008. The latest Swinburn front runners to do the business being Overturn on Oct 12th at 17/2 and Saute at Kempton yesterday at 16/1.

    #255627
    davidjohnson
    Member
    • Total Posts 4491

    Everytime I see a Swinburn runner make all I think of this thread.

    #255632
    carvillshill
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2778

    I don’t really see why you need fast pics to play this angle Cav- a second or 2 difference in the early stages is neither here nor there if you can see the beast has gone to the front.

    #255634
    Cav
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4825

    True enough carvills. Saute traded at 42 :shock: in running yesterday. Thats 15 from 71 since the start of 2008, 58% ROI at BFSP.

    #263127
    Cav
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4825

    Silken Promise led and beaten a neck at 20/1 yesterday. A win and 3 seconds since the last update (6 runs). Evens, 12/1, 15/2, 20/1.

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