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I’ve nothing to do with the website in question but four winners from his last 24 runners is a fair return (though "good nick" rather than "really good nick" might have been more appropiate) and this 16% strike-rate beats his 10.8% average since he took over from Peter Harris.
Still can’t have Hevelius though – he’d find trouble in a match
Still can’t have Hevelius though – he’d find trouble in a match
Spot on imo.
The Swinburn horse are doing fine when they want to. The best angle with Walter’s horses is to only back the ones sent to the front early. Their the real buzzers from this yard, you’d have made piles from doing this over the last 18 months.
Of course playing in-running with conventional technology is another matter entirely.
Marb, I’m totally sympathetic with your point.
The number of times you here pundits or presenters make generalisations such as "so and so’s horses always come on for a run" or "he can get one ready first time out" I want to ask where’s the evidence please. The person saying it may well be right but I feel pretty sure he/she hasn’t done any research into it.
Colin
The number of times you here pundits or presenters make generalisations such as "so and so’s horses always come on for a run" or "he can get one ready first time out" I want to ask where’s the evidence please.
Colin
Good point but it’s not just pundits who make this mistake…some trainers are similarly guilty. Brendan Duke has often described Openide as a "7lb better horse at Cheltenham" despite the fact that he hasn’t won there since April 2005 and his last three British wins have come at Market Rasen, Stratford and Uttoxeter!
Still can’t have Hevelius though – he’d find trouble in a match
Spot on imo.
The Swinburn horse are doing fine when they want to. The best angle with Walter’s horses is to only back the ones sent to the front early. Their the real buzzers from this yard, you’d have made piles from doing this over the last 18 months.
Of course playing in-running with conventional technology is another matter entirely.
I’d never noticed that before. 43% of Swinburn’s winners this year made all or most of the running (nine from 21). Six tracked/chased leaders and six were held up. Fahey stats are 19%, 53% and 28%.
I’ve watched him the last month or so and on a scale of how I think he can perform of 1-10 i’d have him about five & a half recently.
A pretty good assessment that Marb. The Racing Posts/Raceform’s TF%* has him on 62% – which I think means 62% of his runners in the last week/month(?) ran upto or above their pre-race RPR.
I’ve always thought of this as a pretty good measure of a trainers current form as a staight comparision of strike-rates over whatever periods may throw more into the mix than perhaps is helpful.
* Available free on the RP’s website (for now anyways)
Since 1st Jan 2008, 53 of Swinburns horses have gone straight to the front, 13 have won giving a stike rate of 24.53% and a profit at BFSP of 24.07points (45% ROI)
The winners were…..
Date Horse SP
11/07/2009 ….. Desert Kiss ….. 4/1
09/07/2009 ….. Constant Cheers ….. 7/2
17/04/2009 ….. Jordaura ….. 9/4
08/04/2009 ….. Crown Choice ….. 8/1
09/04/2008 ….. Greystoke Prince ….. Evens
17/07/2009 ….. Play It Sam ….. 6/1
18/04/2009 ….. Staying On ….. 9/2
30/05/2009 ….. Rathlin Light ….. 5/2
05/05/2008 ….. Staying On ….. 9/1
24/05/2008 ….. Staying On ….. 6/1
06/08/2008 ….. Perfect Citizen ….. 15/8
21/04/2009 ….. Champagne Future ….. 4/1
21/05/2009 ….. Antinori ….. 100/30With his runners who dont front run he’s just over 9% and almost 164 points down at BFSP! Big, big difference. Wont touch it without fast pics though.
Since putting that up ^^^^^^ 4 of Swinburns horses have gone straight to the front
17/7 – Streets Apart 2nd @ 12/1
17/7 – Play It Sam 1st @ 6/1 …..7.85/1 BFSP
7/8 – Rehabilitation 4th @ 20/1
12/8 – Streets Apart 3rd @ 6/1This inplay "goldmine" continues to pay handsomely for its followers.
The return to BFSP now up to almost 60% since Jan 2008. The latest Swinburn front runners to do the business being Overturn on Oct 12th at 17/2 and Saute at Kempton yesterday at 16/1.
I don’t really see why you need fast pics to play this angle Cav- a second or 2 difference in the early stages is neither here nor there if you can see the beast has gone to the front.
True enough carvills. Saute traded at 42
in running yesterday. Thats 15 from 71 since the start of 2008, 58% ROI at BFSP.
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