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Saturday 17 May
Three bets from the list today.
Newbury
2.45 8f Lockinge Stakes.
I ‘ve been waiting for the reappearance of Creachadoir after his run in Dubai in March. It was suggested that the run there was below par but the time was decent and he is best on figures today. £80 @6/1 generally available.
Medicine Path requires more give in the ground than he is likely to get today…..unless it rains heavily, in which case he would be worth a bet.Creachadoir won 3/1f, well supported. Medicine Path NR.[/color:2ewp0vmt]
3.20 10f London Gold Cup H’cap.
Colony is noted from his fast time Sandown win. He is progressive and will be hard to beat. This is a tough handicap with half a dozen unexposed horses in opposition and his price is very tight. There will be much better bets at these odds, so no point getting involved.
Colony could only manage 3rd 6/4f(very well supported). Probably needs it less firm, there will be other days.[/color:2ewp0vmt]3.55 6f H’cap
Royal Rock and Jimmy Styles are both of interest here. I find it difficult to favour one over the other, but cannot back them both at today’s odds. Jimmy Styles is the better price, so that’s my bet. £110 @9/2 generally available.
Both Royal Rock(3rd, 7/4f) and Jimmy Styles(9/2,5th) had every chance, but were reportedly unsuited by the steady pace for a 6f race of this class. They probably deserve another chance, but I wouldn’t be giving them too many after this showing.[/color:2ewp0vmt]Newmarket
2.25 Oceana Gold’s Newmarket second stands out here. That form looks solid and he should be able to get to the front and hold on this time. £200@ 5/2 Betfred.
The well supported Oceana Gold(2/1f) ran disappointingly. Never got to the front and was beaten too far for this to be his form. Seemed to get stirred up beforehand and probably just had an off day.
A profit of £170 on the day.
Totals
Stakes £2,240 Loss £485
26 bets 3 winners 23 losers.
[/color:2ewp0vmt]Here is last week’s review of the best Topspeed ratings, followed by my current list of horses to watch out for. The review and list is confined to horses this season who have produced a rating of 90+(2yos a little below this figure).This rating also has to be within 10lbs of their best RPR rating.
Monday 12 May
After his Yarmouth win, Mujood will go up and now looks handicapped out of another win this season. The 8yo Habshan ran poorly and is also deleted from the list.
Wednesday 14 May
Bath Gd-Fm
The 2yo Cerito 87 produced the best comparitive time of the day, winning by 6 lengths. First time out, well-backed, very useful.
York Gd-Fm
The 6f Group2 Duke Of York Stakes was up to standard and the form looks solid. Those who raced on the stands side were disadvantaged so U S Ranger, who won that race, is better than the bare form.
Collection 93 was an impressive winner of the 10f handicap. He is a Derby entry, but his future is probably a few top handicaps and then perhaps listed company.
Thursday 15 May
Salisbury Good
The 2yo Sunship 85 was best on times for the day.
York Gd-Fm
Promising Lead 112 could be much better than this, winning the Group3 10f Stakes in a canter. Flying Clarets 93 ran up to her best on unsuitable ground and can win again this season.
The Dante form looks very solid with Tartan Bearer 114 heading to Epsom where, given improvement, has every chance in what is looking an open race. Frozen Fire 118 also ran very well and goes to Epsom. Twice Over 109 was not at his best, but will win again, perhaps at Ascot.
In the 8f H’cap(Listed), Mia’s Boy 104 ran his best race to date and may now take his chance at Ascot. Seems to go on any ground and could find a bit more improvement. The horses that finished 2nd and 3rd, Lang Shining 102, and Blythe Knight 110 are also worth keeping in mind for top races.
Friday 16 May
Hamilton Gd-Fm
Captain Webb 103 confirmed his well-being. He has a big handicap in him.
York
The 5f 3yo H’cap winner Hamish McGonagal 94 always looked the winner and can defy a rise in the handicap. Lesson In Humility 97 looks on a handy mark and Marvellous Value 92 is worth another chance, running his best race to date here.
Tombi 98 ran away with the 6f H’cap(Class 2) and is one to note.
Newbury Good
2yo newcomer Orizaba 92 slammed his rivals winning by 9 lengths. Very useful.
In the 11f 3yo H’cap, Allied Powers 92 continued his progress.He won with a bit to spare and remains one to note.
Saturday 17 May
Newbury Good
The main races of the day, including the Lockinge Stakes didn’t produce times commensurate for the grades.
However, the 7f 3yo Fillies H’cap was good for a class 4 with the front two Clifton Dancer 92 and Shabiba 93 both showing that they can pick up fair handicaps in the near future.
Thirsk Good
Two very fast sprint races. The 5f Class 2 H’cap was won emphatically by Manzila 107(RPR 110). Might have to move into listed races now if handicapper raises her too much for this. Ishetoo 95 also proved his well being and can soon get off the mark again this season in a decent handicap.
Valery Borzov 98 has now hit top form and should be followed in the near future.
The List
All The Aces
Allied Powers
Art Connoisseur 2yo
Aspen Darling 2yo
Bankable?
Blue Bresil
Blue Spinnaker
Blythe Knight
Bob’s Surprise
Bonnie Charlie 2yo?
Border Music?
Bougereau
Bronze Cannon
Cape Vale
Captain Gerard
Captain Webb
Centennial
Cerito 2yo
Clifton Dancer
Cobo Bay
Collection
Colony
Creachadoir
Deadly Encounter 2yo
Democrate
Doctor Faustus
Doctor Fremantle
Doncaster Rover 2yo
Duntulm
Emily Blake
Enforce
Escape Route
Ezdiyad
Falco
Finsceal Beo
First Buddy
Fishforcompliments
Flawed Genius
Flying Clarets
Frozen Fire
Generous Thought
Hamish McGonagal
Huzzah
Ice Queen
Infallible
Ishetoo
Jamboretta
Jaser
Jimmy Styles?
King Charles
Lang Shining
Lesson In Humility
Manzila
Markab
Marvellous Value
Matsunosuke
Medicinal Path
Mia’s Boy
Morinqua
Mourilyan
Moyenne Corniche
Mull Of Dubai
Northern Fling
Oceana Gold
Orizaba 2yo
Paco Boy
Perks
Phantom Whisper?
Prima Luce
Promising Lead
Proponent
Royal Rock
Sanana Perdida
Shabiba
Sir Gerry
Starlish
Sunship 2yo
Sweet Afton
Tajaweed
Tartan Bearer
Tastahil
The Snatcher
Tombi
Top Lock
U S Ranger
Unneffer
Valery Borzov
Whistledownwind
ZarkavaWednesday 21 May
Goodwood
2.50 Listed Race 11fThe key race from this season’s form is the Sandown Classic Trial. Whistledownwind and Top Lock were both noted and put onto the ‘list’ following that race. Top Lock has a bit to find with Whistledownwind and last season’s form choice, City Leader, but he has only raced twice and can be expected to close the gap. At the current odds, he seems a fair bet. £70@ 8.8 Betfair
City Leader won. Top lock 3rd 7/1, Whistledownwind 4th.
Loss £70
Totals
Stakes £2310 Loss £555
27 bets 3 winners 24 losers [/color:ggqddhu8]Thursday 22 May
Goodwood
3.25 Sweet Afton was noted in the Bath race won by Morinqua in a fast time and maybe she is back to her best form. I’m of the opinion that the Bath race was overrated because several horses produced career best performances. She was put up 6lbs for that race which may be harsh for a 5yo with a poor strike rate. I’m just watching today.
3rd of 7 at 6/1 btn under 2 lengths. The 6lbs rise probably cost her the race. She’s reported to be in foal and might do a little better at a stiffer 5f while she’s in top form.[/color:2fgza3sq]
Newmarket 4.40
Shela House and Prince Sabaah have both recently recorded figures that entitle them to serious consideration here. The excellent hurdler, Punjabi, returns to the flat off an attractive mark and sets up the market for his rivals. Shela House is lightly raced for a 4yo and looks a fair bet at attractive odds.
£50 @10/1 Betfred.
Shela House 3rd/10 at 12/1 couldn’t get near the two horses that dominated the market.
Loss £50.[/color:iw2t1uu2]Saturday 24 May
Beverley 2.25 7f 100yds H’cap
These are probably ideal conditions for Mujood, giving weight away in a 0-85 H’cap over 7f on a track where he can pick off his rivals up the hill. I’d be happier if his regular partner was riding, but Richard Mullen is capable enough. He should be able to defy a 3lb rise for his recent win.
6/4 or better is my minimum price.Won at 11/8, but price never touched 6/4, so no bet.[/color:31nmifp5]
Haydock 2.05 5f h’cap
Fyodor is the only contender with current season speed figures good enough for this h’cap, but his profile doesn’t fit that of a likely winner. Better on the AW and an infrequent winner. One for my Scoop 6, but not an obvious bet even at decent odds.
Fyodor won at 8/1[/color:31nmifp5]
2.35 Listed(Fillies and Mares) 12f
Under The Rainbow has a good opportunity to win a race where her main rival won a handicap last time in a moderate time. She has solid form at this level and is clear on Topspeed ratings this season.
£150@ 100/30 generally available.2nd 11/4 Loss £150[/color:31nmifp5]
3.05 8f H’cap
There are four horses in this race who are noted on the list of best Topspeed performances this season.
I would pass on Jaser this time(ground and class) despite his likely improvement. The Newmarket form of Duntulm and Flawed Genius looks strong as does Huzzah’s two game wins.
Duntulm looks the horse with the best scope for improvement, but the price discounts that. I’m passing on this one.Jaser did best of the four, finishing third.[/color:31nmifp5]
3.35 Temple Stakes 5f
Enticing and Matsunosuke have the best figures this season, yet neither looks good enough to win this. No bet.
Neither were good enough.[/color:31nmifp5]
4.10 7f H’cap
Cape Vale and Fervent Prince head the market and both have solid recent form with decent times to support it. Fervent Prince’s form looks stronger.
£125@4/1 BetfredFervent Prince won 11/2 Profit £500[/color:31nmifp5]
Newmarket
2.20 10f Listed raceThe figures say that Unnefer is a notch in grade above his rivals with solid form/speed figures to back it up.
Likely to be odds on, but I would be interested in any evens if bookmakers feel generous.
Won 10/11, but was available at evens. Profit £500[/color:31nmifp5]
2.50 7f Listed raceBob’s Surprise was noted from his reappearance in the Greenham stakes and that form looks good enough here, although there are plenty of potentially very good horses in opposition.
£70 @8.2 Betfair
Unplaced 7/1 Loss £70[/color:31nmifp5]
3.20 6f H’cap (3yo)
Prohibit ran very well in a good listed race last time and still looks very well handicapped. He can win this before going on to better things.
£140@ 7/2 generally available.
3rd 5/2f Loss £140[/color:31nmifp5]
Profit on the day
500 + 500 -150 -70 -140 = £640
Totals to date:
Stakes £3,345 Profit £35
Bets 34 5 winners 28 losers[/color:31nmifp5]Sunday 25 May
Curragh
3.00 10f+ Tattersalls Gold Cup Group1
Finsceal Beo showed her well being with a top class performance in Dubai and can give Duke Of Marmalade a race if she is back to her best today.
£125@4/1 Paddy Power
2nd 7/2, Duke Of Marmalade won[/color:2bpi64jf]3.35 8f Irish 1,000gns
Halfway To Heaven ran a very solid race in a decent time to finish 3rd at Longchamp and should be able to repeat that form on the fast ground she seems to prefer. Nahoodh is better than her unlucky run at Newmarket but hasn’t yet proved herself against the clock.
£60 @8/1 Betfred, Paddy Power.Won 13/2[/color:2bpi64jf]
Newmarket
3.30 10f H’cap
This race looks set for Bronze Cannon, although Love Galore will ensure that he doesn’t have things too easy. Both have recorded notable times recently. The prices look about right, so no bet.Bronze Cannon won 4/9[/color:2bpi64jf]
4.05 6f H’cap
Phantom Whisper and Angus Newz have both recorded decent times this season. Phantom Whisper looks to have the strongest claims, but Angus Newz is capable of winning off a good pace.Phantom Whisper £80 @6/1 Betfred
Angus Newz £30@16/1 BetfredBoth unplaced
Profit on day
480 -125 -80 -60 = £215
Totals
Stakes £3,660 Profit £250
Bets 37 Winners 6 Losers 31[/color:2bpi64jf]Monday 26 May
Redcar
3.50 10f Zetland Gold Cup
First Buddy has gone up 12lbs since his very easy Musselburgh victory, a race run in a in a fast time. Both his victories this season were on softer ground than that encountered today. He acts on firm ground as well and although he has a stiff task in this higher grade, he might yet improve enough to take this. I’m expecting about 10/1 or better when the market opens.
Unplaced 8/1 Loss £60[/color:3p982i23]
Last week was fairly quiet for fast times with an absence of quality races to produce such figures.
The following horses(Topspeed 90+, 2yo 85+) performed close to their personal best, better than their Official Rating, and also within 10lb of their Racing Post Rating(RPR) for the race.
Wednesday 21 May
Goodwood
10f Michita 105 ( RPR 105)
Friday 23 May
12f Mad Rush 97(106)
Saturday 24 May
Haydock
8f Staying On 105(105)
Commander Cave 105(105)
Jaser 99(99)
Flawed Genius 102(106+)
Endless Luck 96(95)
Duntulm 97(97)
Tiger Dream 90(90)
Jedediah 95(98+)5f Fleeting Spirit 123(123)
Borderlescott 117(117)
Desert Lord 111(112)Newmarket
6f Ancien Regime 98(107+)
Sunday 25 May
Curragh
6f 2yo
Intense Focus 88(87)
Westphalia 87(86+)Newmarket
6f Ajigolo 96(100+)
Express Wish 93(97)
Everymanforhimself 90(93)
Prior Warning 99(102)
Cape 92(95)Here is the updated list of horses that have been noted since the flat season started and are thought(by me) capable of reproducing that form given the right conditions. I’ve eliminated some from the earlier lists as the season has progressed, most notably Capable Guest who I discounted a few weeks ago. He popped up yesterday at 25/1. C’est la vie.
Ajigolo
All The Aces
Allied Powers
Ancien Regime
Art Connoisseur 2yo
Aspen Darling 2yo
Bankable?
Blue Bresil
Blue Spinnaker
Blythe Knight
Bob’s Surprise
Bonnie Charlie 2yo?
Border Music?
Borderlescott
Bougereau
Bronze Cannon
Cape
Cape Vale
Captain Gerard
Captain Webb
Centennial
Cerito 2yo
Clifton Dancer
Cobo Bay
Collection
Colony
Commander Cave
Creachadoir
Deadly Encounter 2yo
Democrate
Desert Lord
Doctor Faustus
Doctor Fremantle
Doncaster Rover 2yo
Duntulm
Emily Blake
Endless Luck
Enforce
Escape Route
Everymanforhimself
Express Wish
Ezdiyad
Falco
Finsceal Beo
First Buddy
Fishforcompliments
Flawed Genius
Fleeting Spirit
Flying Clarets
Frozen Fire
Generous Thought
Hamish McGonagal
Huzzah
Ice Queen
Infallible
Intense Focus 2yo
Ishetoo
Jamboretta
Jaser
Jedediah
Jimmy Styles?
King Charles
Lang Shining
Lesson In Humility
Manzila
Markab
Marvellous Value
Matsunosuke
Medicinal Path
Mia’s Boy
Morinqua
Mourilyan
Moyenne Corniche
Mull Of Dubai
Northern Fling
Oceana Gold
Orizaba 2yo
Paco Boy
Perks
Phantom Whisper?
Prima Luce
Prior Warning
Promising Lead
Proponent
Royal Rock
Sanana Perdida
Shabiba
Sir Gerry
Starlish
Staying On
Sunship 2yo
Sweet Afton
Tajaweed
Tartan Bearer
Tastahil
The Snatcher
Tiger Dream
Tombi
Top Lock
U S Ranger
Unneffer
Valery Borzov
Westphalia 2yo
Whistledownwind
ZarkavaEdit: Add Michita and Mad Rush
Wednesday 28 May
A couple of interesting races at Beverley this evening, but the rains may yet arrive, so I’ll wait till about 6pm before I decide whether or not to have a bet.
Didn’t manage to get back to look at going, prices etc,so no bets[/color:31db78yy]
Thursday 29 May
Sandown
6.40 5f National Stakes 2yo listed race.
Foundation Room and Finjaan are the two speed horses here. I much prefer Finjaan’s form, but the soft ground is an unknown. No bet.7.15 16f Henry II stakes Group 2
A few here with respectable times this season, namely Royal And Regal, Tranquil Tiger and Steppe Dancer. The going and trip look ideal for Royal And Regal and he should run very well. Stayer’s Topspeed figures are usually further adrift from RPRs than horses running over shorter trips, so I wouldn’t be too concerned about the gap here. Allegretto has a better figure last season and will be well prepared, but Royal And Regal looks a decent bet. Minimum Odds 2/1.
3rd/8 evens, a bit unlucky. No bet[/color:3o17do01]
7.45 10f Brigadier Gerard Stakes Group 3
I don’t think this season’s form will be much help here. Happy Boy was a 9 lengths winner in a fast time on the dirt in Dubai back in January. That surface is lightning fast, but he has form on much softer ground in South America. I am a fan of Pipedreamer and expect him to do well this season. A fascinating contest, but no bet.
8.20 8f Heron Stakes Listed race 3yo
Moynahan stands out on his Guineas form which is working out well. The soft ground is the fly in the ointment and the question is whether it’s worth taking a chance at the likely odds. I think so.
£140@7/2 Betfred.Non-Runner[/color:3o17do01]
8.50 8f Class 3 H’cap
Bahar Shumaal has two good runs to his name, but the ground is totally wrong for him and I would be surprised if he ran.
Friday 30 May
Goodwood
4.45 7f H’cap
The Snatcher and Idle Power both have claims on recent speed figures. Idle Power loves this track, acts on any going and will be involved in the finish, but I think The Snatcher’s form has a more solid look to it.
£125@4/1 William Hill2nd 15/8, Idle Power won 9/2[/color:29jyln6g]
York
2.10 7f Conditions Race Class 3
Advanced ran well over 6f in the Abernant Stakes, form that is generally reliable. He’s never won over this trip, but if he’s on a going day(has sometimes disappointed), he must have a decent chance.
£25 @20 Betfair4th/10 12/1[/color:29jyln6g]
3.20 10f H’cap
I would be very interested in Blue Spinnaker if it rained significantly. He loves this track and distance, but needs softish ground to be competitive in this grade. Humble Opinion also has a decent speed figure this season, but I’m beginning to think that he’s not that well handicapped.
No bet until after first race – to assess going.Going good, no bet on Blue Spinnaker. Humble Opinion won
13/2Loss on day £150[/color:29jyln6g]
Saturday 31 May
Todays best Topspeed horses, some from the list, a few not.
Suggested bets(to win £500), or reason for not backing a particular horse.
Doncaster
3.40 Lesson In Humility £70 @7/1 Betfred won/8 8/1[/color:khlv1lju]
Dubai Dynamo £50 @10/1 Betfred 7th/8 7/2[/color:khlv1lju]
4.15 Fishforcompliments £30@17 Betfair 9th/14 6/1 3NRs[/color:khlv1lju]Goodwood
3.35 Lady Gloria £60@10.5 Betfair 2nd/9 13/2[/color:khlv1lju]
Bankable – very short Won 7/4[/color:khlv1lju]
Babodana – poor strike rate 3rd 9/1[/color:khlv1lju]
5.50 Mujood – class? 2nd/5 10/3[/color:khlv1lju]Haydock
2.45 Dark Missile £250@2/1 Betfred 5th/10 7/4f 2NRs[/color:khlv1lju]
3.15 Beckermet – distance? 6th/8 9/1[/color:khlv1lju]
4.55 Safari Sunup £20@30 Betfair 7th/10 20/1 4NRs[/color:khlv1lju]York
3.55 Rebel Duke – class? NR[/color:khlv1lju]
Matsunosuke – course? 15th/18 20/1[/color:khlv1lju]
Everymanforhimself – distance? 2nd/18 11/1[/color:khlv1lju]
Ishetoo £50@11 Betfair 3rd/18 8/1[/color:khlv1lju]
Fyodor £30@18 Betfair 11th/18 14/18 bets Stakes £490 level on the day
Totals
Stakes £4430 Profit £40
Bets 48
7 winners, 41 losers [/color:khlv1lju]Monday 2 June
Leicester
3.30 7f
Once Upon A Grace £90@6.8 BetfairWindsor
8.00 6f
Sonny Red £70@8.4 Betfair
Hoh Mike – too short(5/2)8th/11 at 4/1[/color:38r4klbl]
Loss £70[/color:38r4klbl]
Wednesday 4 June
I’m updating the ‘list’ from the Weekender(published today) this week, rather than the website.
The website was down yesterday. I fancied Valery Borzov, but the morning line price put me off. I would certainly have backed the horse at 7/2 available at the off. Finished 2nd.
Today there is one bet.
Leopardstown
7.00 Manzila Minimum Price 7/2 – cover to win £500.
10th/10 at 9/2
Loss £110[/color:d3r8gow2]Friday 5 June
Epsom
1.40 Blythe Knight going? better on soft won 6/1[/color:1iiwqp2f]
Don’t Panic £110@9/2 Paddy Power 4th/8 4/1[/color:1iiwqp2f]
2.10 Vainglory £45@12 Betfair 3rd/14 9/1[/color:1iiwqp2f]
2.45 Escape Route going? better when firmer.8th/10 6/1[/color:1iiwqp2f]
4.05 Michita £50@10/1 generally available 7th/16 8/1[/color:1iiwqp2f]Bath
8.35 Sweet Afton. Minimum odds 9/2 5th/9 15/2 £70 loss
Loss on day £275Totals to date:
53 bets
7 winners
Stakes £4885
Loss £415
[/color:1iiwqp2f]
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