Speed Ratings

[scallywag76]

A couple of comments re. ‘list’ horses.

The Bath meeting on Tuesday last was very difficult to rate, due to the onset of persistent rain & softening of the ground during racing. I’d view any ratings as being very tentative but have Morinqa on 100.

Despite earlier doubts, I have rated the Ascot card on Weds – any rain that fell during racing doesn’t seem to have caused the going to deteriorate further. On my figures, Sir Gerry returned 104, whilst Bankable is only on 86 for his win in the last (it must be remembered that the standard times for Ascot are, themselves, tentative at the present time).

[Artemis]

Thursday 8 May

Two races of interest at Chester today.

2.45 Chester Vase 12f.

Feared In Flight has the best time performance this season and represents the best form from last year. Doctor Fremantle was noted when runner up in a very hot Newmarket Handicap and should improve enough to win today, but I’m not getting involved at the likely shortish odds of around 7/4.

Doctor Fremantle won 11/8[/color:15omakhs]
3.15 7f 122yds Handicap

Huzzah is a tough individual and I expect him to try to push the pace and make his fitness tell. He won a Newbury handicap in a decent time and can follow up. Different track, better ground always tempers confidence, but the price looks value. (Betfair 10.5)

Huzzah won 15/2[/color:15omakhs]

Scallywag,
Thanks for that. I’ve put a ? on my list next to these horses and Bonnie Charlie(Windsor) you mentioned in an earlier post .

[scallywag76]

My figures put Feared In Flight on 97 for his Sandown 3rd & Doctor Fremantle on 106 for his Newmarket 2nd. As you say, 7/4 (if that’s the best available) tempers enthusiasm for a bet – especially with an unexposed O’Brien runner in the field.

[Artemis]

There are four races of interest at Chester from a speed ratings angle.

1.45 Joseph Henry and Extraterrestial are the horses with good recent time figures. Both are well drawn and should be suited by ground and trip. I think Extraterrestial has a bit of tactical speed and is on the upgrade, but he’s plenty short enough in this type of race so I won’t be getting involved.

Extraterrestial finished 2nd at 9/2, just failed to get up after a troubled run, so typical of Chester. [/color:2pizge5a]
2.15 Unnefer was noted from his Newbury win as a colt to follow and that form looks strong enough here.(11/2 Betfred)

Unnefer 2nd at 4/1, hit the front over 1 furlong out, hung and was caught on the line.[/color:2pizge5a]
2.45 Templestern showed his well being in the John Porter Stakes at a soggy Newbury. May find this ground too lively and drawn very wide for a front runner,but should still go quite well. No bet here.

Finished 7th, seemed unable to keep up the gallop, possibly outclassed.[/color:2pizge5a]
3.15 May Blossom won at Thirsk in a decent time and is well drawn here. A small bet in a tricky handicap.(9.6 Betfair)

4th at 13/2, never got near the front.[/color:2pizge5a]

[Monster]

Hi Artemis

My Top 3 class ratings for the 1.40 Chester race ( Not speed based)

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key= … eglYCL6FKw

Good Luck

Monster

[grand lodge]

Just touched off today, Monster.

Nice to see you still with the ratings! I guess you’re playing on the turf now?

I’m still sticking with just the aw for a bit longer.

[Monster]

Hi GL

I have made a few changes to the ratings and thought that I would try them out in one of the races covered by Artemis. It will probably be June before I get going as there are still too many who are returning after a Lay off.

Good Luck

Monster

[Artemis]

I’m interested in four horses today who have all recorded 90+ Topspeed ratings recently and seem to have decent chances today.

Ascot 1.45

Jamboretta is very solid for this race on time and the betting reflects it. Any odds against would be acceptable, evens best at the moment.

unplaced, 8/11 no odds against were available.[/color:304iwtlf]
2.20 The Victoria Cup 7f

Fishforcompliments has a sound chance on his Newcastle form. I am inclined to forgive his lesser run at Newmarket over a longer trip where he ran too freely. Should be suited by today’s strong pace and won’t mind the quickening ground. Well handicapped. (25/1 Ladbrokes)

7th at 14/1[/color:304iwtlf]

Nottingham 3.25 Fillies Listed race 6f

Morinqua showed a lot of dash to win a decent race at Bath (5f soft). Today it is 6f and the ground will be much quicker. The ground is less of a worry than the longer distance, but will be very hard to peg back if getting away quickly.(13/2 Betfred)

Finished last after setting the pace, 8/1.[/color:304iwtlf]

Lingfield 2.40

Cork maiden winner, Ice Queen, should follow up. Very progressive filly.
5/2 generally available.

Unplaced 13/8, 3NRs.[/color:304iwtlf]

[grand lodge]

Hi GL

I have made a few changes to the ratings and thought that I would try them out in one of the races covered by Artemis. It will probably be June before I get going as there are still too many who are returning after a Lay off.

Good Luck

Monster

Hi Monster,

I wouldn’t have thought they needed changing too much as they are quite sound already. Would be interested to hear more, via email, if you wish to discuss it.

As for the turf, I will start looking in a week or two at races where horses have all had a run this season before considering applying my class ratings.

Artemis,

Apologies for not having the time to read through the entire post but, I was just wondering whether or not you are using weight-adjusted SF’s?

[Seagull]

If this is a system as such as opposed to just a list of names of horses that one may be following is there a chance of posting profit/loss totals so one can see how well it may be doing?

[Artemis]

grand lodge,

They are adjusted for Weight For Age(WFA)

Seagull,

It’s difficult to post accurate profit and loss figures for all horses on the list since not all listed horses are backed when they run. I will post a running total of stakes/bets/ profit or loss on the horses I recommend with a staking plan.

[Artemis]

To keep some account of how well or badly these Topspeed horses are doing, I’ll post profit and loss figures.

The staking method I use is one that balances risk and reward. Each recommended bet is aimed at winning £500 by placing a bet at the best available odds when I post the selection. So, if the selection is 12.5 on Betfair, the stake needs to be 500/11 to allow for 5% commission i.e. £45.

Since the season started, I’ve recommended 18 bets from the my observations of the best Topspeed ratings as compared to Racing Post Ratings and Official Ratings. The stakes have been £1.280 and I’m down £85 from 2 winners(4/1 and 10.5), 16 losers. There have been 9 occasions when the required odds were not achieved or I didn’t manage to make a bet. Only 3 of these won at short odds and would have increased my losses quite a bit if I’d backed all 9 of them.

Running Total so far:
Bets 18
Winners 2
Stakes £1,280
Loss £85[/color:3skj3l75]

[Artemis]

Two ‘list’ horses go in the 8f handicap at Yarmouth.
The distance looks too far for Mujood these days, while Habshan’s run behind Bankable last time looks overrated. Add in the obvious dangers from Bustan and Highland Harvest, who both recorded decent times last run, and this race looks a watching brief only.

Mujood won 5/1, which surprised me and Habshan reportedly lost three shoes and was a well beaten last. No regrets.[/color:3fx0cr5z]

[Artemis]

Here is the review of last week’s best Topspeed ratings where the rating is 90+ and within 10lbs of the RPR.

Monday 5 May

Curragh yielding to soft
7f Group 3
Emily Blake,101, and Prima Luce,99, two rank outsiders both showed improved form, but there was no fluke about the form and it should be repeated on soft ground.

Longchamp Gd-firm
11f Group 2 Prix Hocquart
Democrate 113, Starlish 113, Blue Bresil 111.
Worth bearing in mind if any of these come over for Epsom or Ascot.

Wednesday 7 May

Beverley Good

The 2yo Deadly Encounter 89 stood out on a moderate card. Won by 9 lengths.

Chester Gd

5f. 2yo Doncaster Rover 92 won with a bit to spare and has earned his place at Ascot. Aspen Darling 86 should improve over 6f.

Thursday 8 May

Chester Gd-Fm

The 10f handicap showed that Mull Of Dubai 95 and Escape Route 104 are both in top form. The former needs a strong gallop, so should be noted for a big field handicap in the near future.

In the Chester Vase, Doctor Fremantle 112 continued his progress and All The Aces showed that he could be a very useful stayer this season.

7f+ H’cap. Huzzah 105 ran another cracking race. He’ll find it tough in handicaps and may need soft to get competitive from now on unless he goes up to listed grade.

Friday 9 May

Chester Good

10f+ Tajaweed 114 ran a satisfactory Derby trial and goes to Epsom with every chance, although he will need to find 7 or 8lbs to win. Uneffer also continued his improvement and could find further success. Apparently not suited by fast ground.

Saturday 10 May

Ascot Gd-Fm

6f. A race where three older handicappers recorded lifetime best figures suggests the form is overrated.
Jimmy Styles 98, Border Music 98 and Phantom Whisper 97 are all noted, but with a ?.

Haydock Gd

6f Cape Vale 91 is progressive, well handicapped and can win before long.

Lingfield

7f Sanana Perdida 105 won very comfortably and goes to Ascot in top form.

Sunday 11 May

Longchamp Gd-Fm

The French equivalent of our 2,000 Guineas race produced a surprise winner in Falco 117. This performance shouldn’t be underestimated.
In the fillies equivalent, Zarkava 120 justified very skinny odds and proved herself to be a top class filly, arguably the best of her age in Europe.

The updated list:

All The Aces
Art Connoisseur 2yo
Aspen Darling 2yo
Bankable?
Blue Bresil
Blue Spinnaker
Blythe Knight
Bob’s Surprise
Bonnie Charlie 2yo?
Border Music?
Bougereau
Bronze Cannon
Cape Vale
Captain Gerard
Centennial
Cobo Bay
Colony
Creachadoir
Deadly Encounter 2yo
Democrate
Doctor Faustus
Doctor Fremantle
Doncaster Rover 2yo
Duntulm
Emily Blake
Enforce
Escape Route
Ezdiyad
Falco
Finsceal Beo
First Buddy
Fishforcompliments
Flawed Genius
Flying Clarets
Generous Thought
Habshan
Huzzah
Ice Queen
Infallible
Jamboretta
Jaser
Jimmy Styles?
King Charles
Markab
Marvellous Value
Matsunosuke
Medicinal Path
Mia’s Boy
Morinqua?
Mourilyan
Moyenne Corniche
Mujood
Mull Of Dubai
Northern Fling
Oceana Gold
Paco Boy
Perks
Phantom Whisper?
Prima Luce
Proponent
Royal Rock
Sanana Perdida
Sir Gerry
Starlish
Sweet Afton
Tajaweed
Tastahil
The Snatcher
Top Lock
Unneffer
Whistledownwind
Zarkava

Full details of all last week’s races and lists of Topspeed ratings are in The Weekender.

[Artemis]

Wednesday 14 May

York

1.40 10f H’cap. Three horses from the ‘list’.
King Charles is preferred to Tastahil(different ground, questionable speed rating) and Blue Spinnaker(wants it softer, steps up in grade).
£125@ 4/1 generally available.

King Charles had every chance. 5th at 9/2.[/color:20j6qazw]

2.10 7f H’cap. Generous Thought has the best speed credentials this season and that form has been franked. Going ok, but draw might be a worry.
£165@ 3/1 generally available

Generous Thought(7/2) fav, came from last to challenge the eventual winner, but was held in the last 150yds. Still one to note.[/color:20j6qazw]

2.40 Musidora Stakes 10f+. Nothing from this season. Lush Lashes is the only filly with a speed rating up to grade. No Bet.

Lush Lashes won comfortably. 2/1f.[/color:20j6qazw]

3.10 Duke Of York Stakes 6f. I think the Abernant form is the key here from a time perspective. Assertive comes out best on that form and should run very well again. Sonny Red and War Artist were both close up there. Plenty of horses with better figures from last season and I’m happy to leave this race alone.

Assertive won 15/2, War Artist 2nd 11/1, Sonny Red last 20/1.[/color:20j6qazw]

3.45 A moderate handicap with no speed qualifiers from this season.

4.20 2yos, no qualifiers.

4.55 A moderate handicap with no speed qualifiers(90+) from this season.

£290 down on the day.

Totals
Stakes £1,570 Loss £375
20 bets 2 winners 18 losers.[/color:20j6qazw][/img]

[Artemis]

Thursday 15 May

A brief summary of York(No bets) and 1 possible bet at Newmarket this evening.

York

1.40 5f H’cap. Rebel Duke and Fyodor have the best time figures this year, but neither make much appeal. Rebel Duke needs to drop down in grade and Fyodor has not won for over two years. No bet.
Rebel Duke NR, Fyodor 9th/11 btn 3 lengths.[/color:1e3v4s9l]

2.10 10f Group3 Mares and fillies. Promising Lead is well ahead on RPR but she has never posted a commensurate speed figure. Flying Clarets is genuine and loves York but doesn’t look good enough today. She’s hard to place. Interesting, but no bet.

Promosing Lead won comfortably 2/5f, Flying Clarets 3rd 6/1 btn 11 lengths.[/color:1e3v4s9l]
2.40 Dante Stakes 10f. Not a great deal between Twice Over and Centennial on times, although Twice Over looks better class than his main rival and has scope for more improvement. Hard to oppose, but not my kind of price.

Twice Over was a warm order(4/6f) but was beaten 3 lengths into 3rd place.
Centennial was 5 lengths further back. Neither of these two enjoyed the faster ground and Twice Over probably didn’t stay this 10f. [/color:1e3v4s9l]
3.10 Hambleton Stakes 8f H’cap. No recent time performances look up to this standard. Blythe Knight is on the ‘list’, but needs easier ground. Also on the list is Mia’s Boy who might also prefer slower ground. No bet.

Mia’s Boy was a ready winner at 15/2. Evidently acts on any ground.[/color:1e3v4s9l]

3.45 9f Stakes Class 3. No recent speed ratings of note.

4.20 2yo maiden.

4.55 Moderate stayers handicap.

Newmarket

8.00 8f Stakes Class3.

Moyenne Corniche was noted at Newbury three weeks ago as a horse with a future and can find the improvement to win this.
A probable bet, depending on the odds. Minimum 4/1. £125.

2nd at 5/2. I didn’t have a bet, although if he had touched 4/1 at any time during the day I would have had a bet if I had been in a position to do so.
No bets. [/color:1e3v4s9l]

[Artemis]

Three bets at York, two from the list and the other a promising filly.
York

1.40 5f 2yo Listed(Fillies)

Aspen Darling showed enough at Chester last week to give her a decent chance here at a fair price. £60@8/1 generally available.

3rd 6/1 beaten a length[/color:1nq8iwuq]

2.10 12f H’cap

Nothing of any interest from a speed angle this season.

2.40 Yorkshire Cup 14f

Royal and Regal needs the rain to get a run. In any case, the John Porter Stakes form wasn’t franked by a decent speed rating for the grade of race. No bet.

3.10 8f Listed race(Fillies)

Festivale, Insaaf and Musical Bar have all shown enough to figure here granted normal improvement. Musical Bar probably has the most potential, having raced only once. £110@9/2 generally avail;able.
2nd 9/2 btn a hd[/color:1nq8iwuq]

3.45 5f 3yo H’cap

Marvellous Value and Hamish McGonagall both have decent speed figures this season. Marvellous Value has to step up in grade and also prove himself on this faster ground. However, he is open to plenty of improvement having raced(and won) only twice. £110 @9/2 Betfred
3rd 9/2 btn a length[/color:1nq8iwuq]

4.20 6f H’cap

Nothing of interest this season

4.55 12f 0-80 H’cap at York??

A loss of £280 on the day.[/color:1nq8iwuq]

Totals
Stakes £1,850 Loss £655

23 bets 2 winners 21 losers[/color:1nq8iwuq]

[Author]

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