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I have been doing some research recently, comparing SP to the best available price in the morning. I looked at the winners of races only (as they seemed to be the most relevant runners in any race), where their winning SP was less than 10-1 (so as to eliminate distorting big prices).
For comparison, I noted the best price available at roughly 11am on Oddschecker (which includes the major exchanges). Any races with subsequent non-runners I ignored as I couldn’t be fagged to work out R4’s etc. This is about three month’s worth of analysis (532 races in all) although some days were missed out. Whether one considers this a robust enough sample size is open to debate.
<b>Best Early Price</b>
Total Return: 2729.31
Av Price: 5.13
<b>SP</b>
Total Return: 2515.97
Av Price: 4.73532 races
BP better than SP in 325 races 61.09%
SP better than BP in 170 races 31.95%
BP same as SP in 37 races 6.95%What I find interesting is that for all it is horrendously maligned on this board and others, you will not beat SP even by trawling through all the early prices in nearly one in three races. The idea that selective SP betting is for mugs seems discredited.
If you bet at the best early-morning/exchange price you will generally beat SP by a handsome 9% but can you get on all the time to proper money (or indeed to ANY money on occasions)??
Mike
Mike, surely the best price available at 11am the majority of the time is the exchange price, so why not take that price? No bookie chasing involved.
Betlarge,
I see what you are getting at – although there is an advantage in taking best morning prices, it is not as great as people might think and is not to be had in every race. So, is it worth the effort trying to beat SP, when you might not get very much on and are not certain to get better odds than SP?
I suppose it is mainly because you know at what price you are striking your bet. No-one should bet at unknown odds which is what SP amounts to.
The exceptional value that was once available on morning prices disappeared shortly after the SP changes in November 2006. The reasons for this are complex, although generally it was to maximise the profits of the large bookmaking firms whose margins were under threat from escalating costs.
Mike, surely the best price available at 11am the majority of the time is the exchange price, so why not take that price? No bookie chasing involved.
Well, anecdotally I’d say it wasn’t always the case. I noticed many occasions when one or two bookies’ price were bigger although I can’t give exact stats. Furthermore, Oddschecker would also show the top exchange price even if it was available to a farthing.
Mike
- Total Posts 17716
Neither would oddschecker take account of commissions charged by the exchanges, which would eliminate around half of any gains – in the majority of cases.
As most of these gains are notional anyway, (No-one gets the best price all the time), I’d say that Betlarge has shown some justification for the case of fixed price/exchange betting being over-rated.
Be interesting to see if anyone can disprove it?How on earth can you draw any other conclusion from this than that SP is a rip-off?
Considering that most early prices are determined by some screen starer looking at the shrapnel up on Big Blue, most of which seems to be spoof money these days, there will be huge volatility in prices between the morning and the off. The fact that SP only beats these virtually random early tissues a third of the time is damning.
A better measure would be to look at what percentage of stakes you lose when backing all 9/1 or less horses at best morning price versus SP. I would be surprised if you didn’t at least double your losses (ie the edge against you) betting at SP.
On the subject of SPs, I chanced across Lord Donoghue on the TV the other day while flicking channels. He was on a programme called booktalk dicsussing his favourite book. Surprisingly it wasn’t some 150% job in the last on some rancid beach card. No he was talking about economic meltdown in the UK, the collapse of the pound, rubbish piling up in the streets etc. Thought he’d found some contemporary classic but no…just some historical book discussing the last time his corrupt mob were given power in the 70s. Some things never change.
£1 on every winnner in the UK at bookmaker SP during 2008 +£61952.89
£1 on every winner in the UK at BFSP during 2008 +£85988.15 (before comission)£1 on every horse in the UK at bookmaker SP during 2008 -£26295.11
£1 on every horse in the UK at BFSP during 2008 -£2259.85 (before commission)As Barry Dennis says about his customers "They bet for the buzz".
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